Baseball Universe

Royals Fire Hillman

2010-05-14T09:09:00.004-04:00

On Thursday, the Kansas City Royals became the first team to fire its manager this season. Trey Hillman was informed of the decision Thursday morning by General Manager Dayton Moore, who gave Hillman the option of managing one last game. Appropriately, thick with Royals irony, Zack Greinke finally won his first game on Hillman's final day as manager.

The decision to fire Hillman is not surprising, and in fact is probably welcomed by nearly all Royals fans and followers. The impact of the decision will be minimal, as Ned Yost will play out the string in an interim capacity. The significance of the decision, however, is daunting.

Hillman's firing is an admission, tacit or not, that the Royals are no closer to contention now than they were three years ago. The Royals play in a competitive but winnable division, in which even the big-spending Tigers and White Sox are within reach year after year. Yet, even with some fine franchise cornerstones in Zack Greinke and Billy Butler, the Royals seem adrift. To advance the franchise, the Royals need to change the standard operating procedure.

Bullpen stalwart Joakim Soria, or "The Mexicutioner" to Royals fans, can be a dominating presence in the ninth inning. But he's an asset a team like the Royals simply can't afford to hold onto any longer. Before July 31st, the Royals need to trade him to restock what is an unremarkable farm system.

Greinke signed a nice contract last year, and it's not hurting the Royals to pay one of the American League's top 5 pitchers. But without some significant changes to the Royals' philosophy and roster, Greinke may as well start counting the minutes until his contract expires and he can go home to central Florida to play for the Rays.

I hate to do this because I truly feel a kinship with Royals fans, whose plight is oddly similar to that of Phillies fans from the mid-80s through early-90s. But if the Royals are ever going to advance beyond their long-standing position of mediocrity, it's time for some radically different thinking. Hopefully for the sake of all of Jackson County, the early-season firing of Hillman is the falling of small stones that starts an avalanche.

Chase Utley Is The Best Second Baseman On Earth

2009-11-12T22:00:00.000-05:00

Congratulations to the 2009 Gold Glove winners, who were announced Tuesday (AL) and Wednesday (NL). The 2009 NL Gold Glove winner at second base, LA's Orlando Hudson, won for the fourth time after winning three straight Gold Gloves from 2005 to 2007.

The Gold Glove, in theory, is the award given to the best defensive player at each position on the field. Each year, managers and coaches select the elite group of nine players from each league.

A message to the NL managers and coaches who voted:

Chase Utley Is The Best Second Baseman On Earth. He's (also) the best defensive second baseman in the National League. For realsies. Sorry, Orlando Hudson.

An award recognizing defensive excellence seems less legitimate when it fails to recognize its most deserving recipient, which this year is Chase Utley. Among second basemen, Utley had the highest UZR in the NL, and was second in MLB only to Detroit's Placido Polanco, whose 2009 UZR of 11.4 is just 5.5% higher than Utley's 10.8. Polanco, of course, won a Gold Glove (his second).

What's UZR?

"UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined."

If Polanco's UZR is higher, then that must mean he is The Best Second Baseman On Earth. Right? Well, while Polanco and Utley each lead their leagues in the fielding department, Polanco doesn't come close to Utley with a bat in his hands. Utley's .905 OPS led NL second basemen, and was second overall in MLB to Tampa Bay's Ben Zobrist (.948). Polanco's 2009 OPS was .727.

Why mention offensive stats in a discussion about a defensive award? Because the Gold Glove is sometimes given to "the best hitter who can probably field pretty OK." The poster boy of this phenomenon is Derek Jeter, who has been winning Gold Gloves for years (this year is his fourth) on reputation and hitting prowess. This year being no exception, check out Jeter, finishing 6th in UZR among AL shortstops, but 2nd in OPS.

Well what do you know, Chase Utley led National League second baseman in UZR and OPS. The AL (and MLB) UZR leader among second baseman, Polanco, was just 18th in OPS among 2Bs. So statistically speaking, Chase Utley is the best second baseman in the National League, both offensively and defensively. The overall MLB leaders at second base in UZR and OPS, Polanco and Zobrist, are each excellent players, but Polanco's offense has clearly declined with age, and Zobrist's defense, while very good in 2009, is difficult to judge in comparison to other second basemen who played the entire season at the position, because Zobrist played every position in 2009 except catcher and pitcher.

Getting back to basics. Hudson had a UZR of -3.3 (the eighth-WORST among all 2B and fifth-worst among all NL 2B). Utley's UZR of 10.8 led all NL second basemen.

Why even give out Gold Gloves if you don't give one to Chase Utley?

MLB Waiver Trade Deadline

2009-08-27T13:31:00.001-04:00

The following is a brief explanation of the two trade deadlines in Major League Baseball: the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31st, and the waiver trade deadline of August 31st. What follows is a real conversation – not edited for content, spelling, or grammar – between a friend (SS) and me (AD):

SS: i dont understand something....isn't the trade deadline over? b/c i thought i heard about two guys getting moved this week?
or is it if they are traded after the deadline they can't play in the playoffs?

AD: there are 2 trade deadlines
july 31 is the non-waiver trade deadline, meaning any team can trade any player to any team without restrictions
from august 1 to august 31, players can still be traded, but must pass through waivers first
so, if you wanted to trade brad lidge today, you'd have to put him on waivers
waiver priority is determined by divisional standings....AKA, the nationals would get first crack at him if they claimed him (they would have priority over say, florida, or pittsburgh)

SS: but wait
cant the team not trade to them?
like what if nationals aren't offering what they want?

AD: if washington claims lidge, the phillies have 3 options: release lidge for nothing; trade him to washington and only washington; or, pull lidge off waivers. if lidge is pulled back after washington claims him, then lidge is no longer eligible to be traded at all to anyone for the remainder of the season
if washington gets lidge, they are responsible for the remainder of his contract
so, in 2003 when the red sox put manny ramirez and his $20 million annual salary on waivers, not a single team claimed him
because they didn't want to assume his contract

SS: ok

AD: virtually every major leaguer is placed on waivers in august
and virtually every one is pulled back
for a player to qualify for a playoff roster, he has to be on his new team by August 31
so, august 31 is the last day a player can be traded
waiver trades DO happen EVERY year

SS: ok, i got it...kinda
enough to get by
haha

AD: thats why july 31 is so important

SS: right

AD: if the phillies wanted to trade ryan howard and get maximum value for him, they would want to be able to trade him to the highest bidder
but the waiver process allows teams to "block" other teams
like if lidge got on waivers

SS: so we put lidge on waivers....nats say we want him....we have to either work out a trade or pull him back...making him inelligble for any other trade

AD: its possible washington would ONLY claim him to keep him away from atlanta
we could also simply release lidge to washington without getting anything in return...with the catch being that washington has to pay the remainder of lidge's contract

SS: i dont much see the point in that but i dont really know to much about how their finances work
i get football more

AD: see the point in what? blocking?

SS: putting him on waivers and not trading, just releasing
is it just to see if you can do a trade?

AD: oh....well a recent example of that is alex rios
alex rios was an outfielder for toronto
he had a big year in like 2006 or something and the jays signed him to this INSANE contract that paid him like $15 mill a year
which is close to the top of the sport
rios has NOT performed to the level of his contract, by any stretch of the imagination
the blue jays are losing a SHITLOAD of money this year
so, the jays placed rios on waivers
the white sox claimed him
toronto let him walk for nothing........where nothing is a positive cash flow of the prorated portion of $15 million this year PLUS teh remaining years of the contract
by "releasing" rios to chicago, the blue jays saved themselves about $45 million bucks
so, they're not getting "nothing"
what they are getting is financial flexibility

SS: but what is the difference between just doing that and cutting him
or is that like cutting him

AD: well, here's the thing
its not like rios is terrible...he still has value
if a team wants to "cut" a player, they call it "designated for assignment"
when a player is DFA
the team has 10 days to trade him, send him to the minors (if eligible), or give him his outright release

SS: ok so if no one claims him....he's a free agent?

AD: within those 10 days, its possible that NO team would try to trade for the player, because they know they can simply sign him as a free agent at the end of the 10 day period

SS: ok

AD: so a waiver trade GUARANTEES that you will be able to at least TRY to get something back

SS: so now....chi is stuck with him in that contract though?

AD: yes but they wanted him

SS: right

AD: they need a CF for the next few years and the data indicate that rios is having a "down " year

SS: so their reward is not having to compete for him as a FA

AD: chicago's reward is they got a really good outfielder and they didn't have to give up any assets
chicago is a big market...more money....can afford a bigger salary

SS: just pay him a lot
right

AD: exactly

SS: ok i get it

Half the Battle

2009-02-24T23:29:00.004-05:00

By Elizabeth Emmerich

After rising through the ranks of professional baseball as a promising young athlete, Oakland A’s shortstop Bobby Crosby has had a few shortcomings over the last few years. Out for most of the second half of last season with various injuries, Crosby needed much more than recovery to secure his starting position in the 2009 A’s lineup. During the off-season, Crosby has been working with former Athletic Mark McGwire to develop a new look. Crosby’s stance is different, he has a whole new swing, and as current teammate Mark Ellis described, he gained some confidence, which was half the battle.

Is confidence what separates the super-elite athletes from the mainstream elite MLB players? Surely there is a top percentage of incredibly physically talented athletes, but to get to the MLB level you have to be a star. So how does confidence contribute to heightened performance? Is a lack of confidence what puts players in a “slump?”

As a Sport Psychology Consultant, one of the first things to assess with an athlete is their comfort and stability with their role as a player and as a part of the team. Confidence comes with perceptions of ability and overall competency, which can definitely change over a 162-game season. Bobby Crosby is fighting for his position as starting shortstop and to do this, he had to make some serious changes. Physically, he did. Will Crosby remain confident in his ability to perform well mentally? Hopefully he has secured some mental toughness from McGwire along with his beautiful new swing. All eyes are on Crosby during spring training to see if these changes stick.

The concept of confidence and mental toughness is such a strong component of complete athletes but is rarely explored as a piece of peak performance. If you're listening in on the radio or TV, versus personally attending a game, announcers consistently talk about the mental game in passing. As spring training games officially kick off this week and the regular season is just around the corner, it might be of particular interest to pay close attention to the importance of such critical elements of performance.

Bringing It All Back Home

2009-02-12T20:06:00.000-05:00

Multiple sources are reporting the Seattle Mariners and free agent outfielder Ken Griffey, Jr. are close to finalizing a one-year contract worth about $5 million. After this week's signings of Adam Dunn with the Nationals (2 years, $20 million) and Bobby Abreu with the Angels (1 year, $5 million plus incentives), the Mariners - who need to sign another outfielder - don't have many options besides Griffey. He'll likely split his time between the outfield and the DH slot, and may even get some reps at first base.

The deal makes sense for both the team and Griffey. The Mariners have little chance to contend for the division title this year and will be able to increase fan interest with one of the franchise's all-time greats. From Junior's perspective, he would like to write the final chapter of his baseball legacy where it all began, as he has previously said, "...this is the place where I grew up and I owe it to the people of Seattle and to myself to retire as a Mariner."

Griffey, who has 611 career home runs and a career OPS of .920, last played in Seattle in 1999. Junior is fifth on baseball's all-time home run list and needs 49 bombs to tie Willie Mays. If he's able to play two more seasons, Griffey may be able to at least tie Mays, or even surpass him. But for now, the player once known as "The Kid" will just be happy to come home.

The Hypocrisy of the BBWAA

2009-02-11T15:25:00.003-05:00

Baseball just can't seem to move on from the steroid era. Beginning on Saturday with a Sports Illustrated report that Alex Rodriguez failed a drug test in 2003, and followed by A-Rod's exclusive interview with ESPN's Peter Gammons, the baseball universe has once again been rocked by the revelation that one of the game's brightest stars is a cheater.

A-Rod is hardly the first star to become embroiled in the steroids saga, but he is the first player to really come out and offer a sincere apology and elaborate on his use of performance-enhancing drugs. In spite of some evasive responses to Gammons’ questioning, Rodriguez provided more information than just about any player to date. Given A-Rod's high profile, outstanding career accomplishments, and projected stats, one of the largest issues under debate is his candidacy for the Hall of Fame.

So far, the “Steroid Era” fallout has only affected the Hall of Fame candidacy of Mark McGwire, who never tested positive for anything, and who played during a time in which baseball had no testing program. McGwire seems unlikely to garner the 75% of votes necessary to become elected to the Hall of Fame, at least judging from his 2009 vote total. The members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) decide which players are enshrined in Cooperstown. A player is eligible for election after five years of retirement and must receive at least 75% of votes to become a Hall of Famer. Some BBWAA members have indicated that they will never vote for any of the Mitchell Report players, or players who failed drug tests. In their outrage, these writers fail to properly serve the game and their myopia will create an indelible mark on baseball history.

What's troubling about McGwire, Rodriguez, and the other players of the Steroid Era goes beyond the use of performance-enhancing drugs. The members of the BBWAA are overemphasizing the controversy embedded in Steroid Era baseball and are refusing to acknowledge cheating as a reality of baseball and Hall of Fame history.

Is it ethical for baseball players to use performance-enhancing drugs? Is it fair? Probably not. Nor is it ethical or fair to exclude some of the game's greatest players from the Hall of Fame. How would this era of baseball be defined without including legends such as Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens, and Alex Rodriguez? There are numerous players in the Hall of Fame who are known cheaters. For example, Gaylord Perry, a notorious cheater who doctored baseballs throughout his career, is in the Hall of Fame. Mike Schmidt, the greatest third baseman of all time and a Hall of Famer, admitted to using amphetamines or "greenies" at some point in his career. If McGwire and Bonds and A-Rod and Clemens are excluded, will the BBWAA decide to revisit the candidacy of Perry and Schmidt? Of course not. Will the BBWAA expel any of the possibly hundreds of players in the Hall who used greenies at times in their careers? No.

Cooperstown is the home of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, the purpose of which is to record and display baseball history. If baseball is going to maintain a museum to celebrate its greatest players, it’s indefensible to exclude Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or Alex Rodriguez. These four are among the greatest players of their generation. They dominated their leagues for extended periods of time, racked up serious hardware, and boast all the stats they need to back up their Cooperstown credentials. At the core, a Hall of Famer needs to be judged in the context of his era and of his peers. Did he stand out from his peers? More importantly, did he dominate his peers? Did he reach the important statistical milestones? These are the questions the baseball writers are supposed to ask themselves when considering a player for induction into Cooperstown. But instead of focusing on the important player accomplishments, the writers have latched onto a controversy that while worth reporting, is not the only one in baseball history. The BBWAA should chronicle the history of the game, and let the fans make their own judgments.

There's no doubt that a player who uses performance-enhancing drugs has an advantage over a player who does not, as these drugs improve recovery time and help build muscle. However, Barry Bonds was a fantastic hitter and a multiple MVP winner before he started using steroids. Roger Clemens was one of the greatest pitchers of all time before he allegedly used steroids. HGH, androstenedione, and other drugs can't give a man the skill and innate talent he needs to hit a round ball coming at him at 100 miles per hour with an oblong stick as well and as consistently as did Bonds, Rodriguez, and McGwire. Drugs can't enable a man to throw a baseball at a high velocity with pinpoint accuracy like Roger Clemens. After all, this controversy isn't about Ryan Franklin, or JC Romero, or other fringe players who have been caught cheating, as those players themselves are not controversial. This is about some of the greatest players to ever play the game. A-Rod, Bonds, Clemens, McGwire...all Hall of Famers without the drugs. The writers should put these players in the Hall of Fame and record the history of the game, and allow the fans to debate amongst themselves where these players stand in comparison to other all-time greats. Isn't that one of the most fun aspects of being a baseball fan? Will Barry Bonds ever be considered the "real" home run king instead of Henry Aaron? No, but Barry didn't hit 762 home runs just because he took steroids.

The members of the BBWAA who choose to exclude the "Steroid Era" or "Selig Era" players from the Hall of Fame are hypocrites. If players who took amphetamines and cheated in various other ways are already members of the Hall of Fame, then the writers should vote for all players whose accomplishments merit election. This particular sentiment is echoed by one of baseball's greatest ambassadors, Bob Costas, who believes that all players who qualify for the Hall of Fame should be elected, and that Cooperstown and MLB should provide a context for the accomplishments reached in each era. In essence, Costas believes there should be a visible pronouncement, a plaque or display, in the Hall of Fame that more or less says, “This era of baseball, like any other, was shaped by the actions of owners, players, writers, clubhouse attendants, and general managers. Judge these players how you will, and explain this era to your children as you would see fit."

If Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens, and Alex Rodriguez aren't elected to the Hall of Fame, then Cooperstown will no longer be recording the history of the game. Put the players in. Be honest about the circumstances of the era. Be honest with the fans. The truth will set you free.

The Neverending Manny Saga

2009-02-03T13:16:00.000-05:00

According to several reports, Los Angeles Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti had a meeting yesterday with agent Scott Boras, who represents enigmatic free agent outfielder Manny Ramirez. Colletti apparently offered Boras a one-year, $25 million contract for Ramirez. Within an hour, Boras informed Colletti the offer was rejected.

About three months ago, Colletti extended a two-year, $45 million offer to Boras for Ramirez, which Boras also rejected. With Ramirez being the only surefire Hall of Famer left in what has become baseball's free agent wasteland, it seems reasonable that the Dodgers would extend a legitimate offer to match Manny's talent. What many people are trying to determine right now is why Boras and Ramirez would reject a $25 million contract for 2009.

Turn the clock back to July 2008. To make a long story short, Ramirez had two option years left on his contract at $20 million each. Ramirez demanded a new contract, and when the Red Sox made it clear they weren't going to oblige, Ramirez demanded to be traded. Manny quit on his teammates and tanked games, even faking a knee injury, until the Red Sox arranged a three-team deal that brought Jason Bay to Fenway Park.

Ramirez then proceeded to torch National League pitching and lead the Dodgers' charge into the playoffs, where Manny again waved his magic wand. Ultimately, the Dodgers fell to the World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies. Manny's Ruthian accomplishments in the second half of the 2008 season and in the playoffs placed him in the NL MVP discussion, but raised more questions than answers.

This offseason, as Boras sought a multi-year mega-deal for Manny in the range of four or more years for at least $25 million per year, baseball's owners and general managers sent a clear message to not only Ramirez, but the rest of the players: we will not reward the type of behavior Manny displayed on his way out of Boston. Although Manny's statistics and career profile would seem to qualify him for another big free agent contract, Manny's behavior and choices have indicated otherwise.

Which is why this latest development is so startling. Ramirez could have accepted the Dodgers' generous one-year offer and made $25 million for one season of playing baseball. With Spring Training starting in roughly two weeks, Ramirez is running out of time and options. Taking the Dodgers' offer benefits Manny in several ways.

First of all, $25 million is a lot of money. In fact, it's a 25% raise over what Manny was paid last year. The contract would make Ramirez the second-highest paid player in baseball in 2009, after Alex Rodriguez, and would make Manny the highest-paid outfielder in baseball history. Manny could take the deal, put up his usual 30-40 home runs and 100-120 RBI, and attempt to rebuild the credibility he lost with last year's Boston fiasco.

With a 24-hour news cycle, a year can be a very long time. Perhaps in a year, Manny's behavior on his way out of Boston won't be remembered so harshly. More importantly, in a year the economy could be improved to the point where some team will be willing to give Manny one last multi-year contract.

Manny Ramirez is one of the greatest hitters of all time and is often discussed as the greatest right-handed hitter ever. He has a chance to play for a few more seasons and pass Ted Williams, at least statistically, as the greatest "pure" hitter to ever step between the white lines. But Manny won't be furthering his legacy, or hitting any more home runs, by sitting out the season. Baseball doesn't need Manny Ramirez...Manny Ramirez needs baseball.

Ryan Howard's Ridiculous Arbitration Request

2009-01-25T14:43:00.006-05:00

Last winter, Ryan Howard and his agent submitted a $10 million salary request. The Phillies countered with $7 million. Howard was victorious in what became a landmark arbitration case, one that rocked the baseball world and led to a flurry of long-term deals for emerging young stars like Milwaukee's Ryan Braun and Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria.

At the time, the Phillies were ridiculed - and rightly so - for making such a low offer. In all likelihood, their case would have been stronger had they offered the extra $1.5 million to meet Howard in the middle. This winter, Howard and his agent have asked for $18 million for the 2009 season.

Ryan Howard is undoubtedly one of the game's premier power hitters. The numbers he has produced at such a young age put him on track with some of the game's greatest sluggers. Yet, his request to jump $8 million in salary - while still arbitration eligible - seems beyond the realm of reason.

Howard is not the best first baseman in baseball, is not the best first baseman in the National League, and is not even the best player on the Phillies. He may not even be the second-best, given how valuable Chase Utley and Cole Hamels are to the team. Why, then, would the Phillies consider engaging in long-term contract discussions with a player who clearly is going to ask for "A-Rod" money (somewhere in the $25 million per year stratosphere) down the line?

Even a player as historically great as A-Rod has proven that he is not worth $25 million a year. Rodriguez's inability to consistently come through in the clutch, and the Yankees' inability to win the World Series since A-Rod's arrival, are two reasons why his contract does not match his value. A-Rod also plays above-average defense at a position where a player cannot be a defensive liability...and he is still overpaid.

Ryan Howard is an excellent player, though a below-average, if not poor, fielder and a yearly contender for the strikeout crown (not good if you're a hitter). Given everything presented above, it would make sense for the arbitrator to rule in favor of the Phillies this year, with Howard receiving something more reasonable, in the range of $14 million for the year (which is what the Phillies have offered).

Last year, Howard's arbitration victory sent shockwaves through the baseball universe. This year, the universe should balance itself out with a victory for the Phillies.

A Time For Change

2009-01-23T10:38:00.003-05:00

It's been a great three-plus years here at baseballuniverse.blogspot.com, but it's time for a change.

We're going to be moving to www.thebaseballuniverse.com within the next month or so.

Please check back for updates and a final notification of the domain change. Thanks!

Why the Yankees Are Good for Baseball

2009-01-09T13:52:00.001-05:00

Each offseason, baseball's "Hot Stove" heats up with free agent and trade rumors. The team that wields more influence than any other during Hot Stove season is the New York Yankees. Because they have the highest revenue, and because of the organization's stated goal to win the World Series every year, the Yankees typically dictate the market for free agents.

If there were any doubts about this theory, the past several weeks have surely proven the theory to be true. Since the end of the World Series, the Yankees have signed three free agents to long-term contracts: CC Sabathia signed a seven-year, $161 million contract; A.J. Burnett signed a five-year, $82.5 million contract; and Mark Teixeira signed an eight-year, $180 million contract.

Columnists, bloggers, and baseball executives across America have differing opinions on the signings, but there appears to be an overtone of disapproval - heightened by the global economic crisis - throughout the baseball community. Somehow, there is a belief that the Yankees' decision to commit $423.5 million to Sabathia, Burnett, and Teixeira will hurt the game of baseball. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth. To understand why, it is necessary to examine how baseball's salary system works.

First, there is no salary cap in baseball. Teams are free to spend as much or as little as they choose on payroll. One nuance to the salary system in baseball is revenue sharing, in which the teams are required by MLB to send money to MLB, which then distributes a pro rata share of the money to the teams. Teams that receive revenue sharing payments are required to spend that money on player salaries. Therefore, the more money the Yankees spend, the more money the other teams receive in revenue sharing payments. Teams that complain about the Yankees' spending habits (such as the Brewers) are surely still cashing their revenue sharing checks.

Second, there is a gross misconception about the distribution of the $423.5 million. The Yankees did not spend $423.5 million at once. The money on those three contracts will be distributed over several years (five for Burnett, seven for Sabathia, and eight for Teixeira). The idea that the Yankees have almost $425 million in cash reserves to spend at once is baseless and ludicrous.

Third, although not a widely reported fact, the Yankees will actually be spending less on player salaries in 2009 than they did in 2008. Despite the addition of their newest three members, the Yankees have said goodbye to Bobby Abreu ($16,000,000), Mike Mussina ($11,071,029), Jason Giambi ($23,428,571), Carl Pavano ($11,000,000), Kyle Farnsworth ($5,916,666), and Andy Pettitte ($16,000,000). The total value of those players' 2008 salaries is approximately $83,416,266. ESPN's Tim Kurkjian has reported the Yankees actually have cut roughly $88.5 million from the 2008 payroll, so there are certainly a few smaller deals that account for the additional $5 million saved.

Even after accounting for annual salary increases to current players, the Yankees will spend less money in 2009 on player salaries than they spent in 2008. The team also got younger, improved its pitching, and boosted its offensive and defensive capabilities at first base. Despite the decrease in salaries, the Yankees will still pay the most into the revenue-sharing system in 2009. That money will be beneficial to every team, as well as to MLB as a whole.

There are certainly other factors to consider when examining the "Big Three" signings. Will Burnett be able to stay healthy? His track record says no. If Burnett does injure himself, his $16.5 million average annual salary will seem like a mistake; but no other team besides the Yankees can afford to take such a risk. The MLB Player's Association does not begrudge players getting higher salaries. When a player like Burnett gets the big payday, it sets up other players to get big contracts too, depending on their performance and service time. So if the Yankees do get burned by the Burnett signing, other teams might smile to themselves at the misfortune. But the players will be happy that next season, a player of Burnett's caliber or better will be able to command a market-based salary.

Will Sabathia be able to perform in the postseason? CC's regular-season heroics are well-documented, as are his postseason failures. In particular, in the 2007 and 2008 playoffs, Sabathia was on the wrong end of some important games. If the Yankees even make the postseason (and they will have to fight off the American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays, as well as the Boston Red Sox, who have won two World Series in the past five seasons), there is no guarantee that Sabathia will perform well. Wouldn't a Yankees postseason failure be celebrated by those who question their spending methods?

Can Teixeira lift an aging offense? He is an excellent first baseman, capable of hitting over 40 home runs and driving in over 120 runs. Will his contribution be enough to bring the Yankees the World Series championship they have been chasing since they last won it all in 2000? Will the Big Three be able to give the fans of the Bronx Bombers the ultimate satisfaction?

These and other questions will only be answered by the players on the field. A lot can happen over 162 games, on top of which, the baseball offseason is still full of intrigue as several high-profile free agents remain unsigned. With a new stadium opening across the street from venerable Yankee Stadium, the Yankees are doing their best to win now. If other teams, or sportswriters, or anyone else finds fault with the Yankees' spending habits this offseason, they should consider the words of one of the world's most famous philosophers, Friedrich Nietzsche, who wrote in his immortal work On The Genealogy of Morals:

"To demand of strength that it should not express itself as strength, that it should not be a desire to overcome, a desire to throw down, a desire to become master, a thirst for enemies and resistances and triumphs, is just as absurd as to demand of weakness that it should express itself as strength."

Dear Baseball Gods

2008-01-27T20:06:00.000-05:00

Dear Baseball Gods,

I hear the Twins have been peddling Johan Santana. Please. PLEASE. Do not allow the New York Yankees to acquire the world's greatest pitcher. First of all, the Yankees are the Yankees. People are either going to love them, or hate them. For those of us who hate them (and there are many of us), the Yankees represent all that is evil in the baseball world. They spend, and spend ... and spend ... and spend in an effort to buy the World Series trophy. The fact that the organization has been unable to achieve championship status in this decade has given many baseball fans great happiness. For the game's greatest active pitcher to become a member of the Evil Empire would break many hearts (and not just those in the Twin Cities).

Santana is one of baseball's few pitching masters. He can overpower hitters, yes, but his most dominant pitch relies on deception. His changeup is one of the greatest anyone has ever thrown. Yet his singular greatness would be lost in the madness that is the Bronx Zoo. How would he rise above the glare of the A-Rods, the Jeters, the Posadas? How would he fare in the den of Babe Ruth? He would be nobody. Santana would have to earn his place in the New York Pantheon. And that, my friends, would be a gross injustice to his talent.

On the other hand, there is something to be said for the juggernaut getting another jewel for its crown. Bob Gibson, inarguably one of the greatest pitchers of all time, and the St. Louis Cardinals were hated (feared) by many in a way that is similar to the current Yankees. In a distinctly anti-Nietzschean fashion, we despise the strong on account of their strength. In layman's terms ... we want to root for the underdog. It would be impossible for most baseball fans to appreciate Johan Santana's greatness without bias if he were to don the dreaded pinstripes.

Which is why the only logical destination for Santana, from the perspective of this argument, is Minnesota. There he is not only beloved - he has been deified. At least, from the point of the view of the fans. Unfortunately, the Twins are owned by the notoriously frugal Carl Pohlad, the last of a dying breed of owners who believe the organizations, not the players, make the game what it is today. Santana and his agent are actually asking for quite a modest extension. Their proposed deal would pay Santana roughly $20 million per season for the next seven seasons.

Think about this logically. $20 million per season (or even $25 million) for the game's greatest pitcher is a bargain. I could rattle off a laundry list of overpaid, overrated pitchers - Kevin Brown, Darren Dreifort, Chan Ho Park, Kevin Millwood, Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett, and on and on - who have been given upwards of $10 million per season. But more importantly, the economics of the deal speak for themselves. By 2014 or 2015, a $20 or $25 million annual salary will be rather average for a starting pitcher, if we are to follow the current trend of salary escalation (approximately 10% per year).

Why should Minnesota not sign Santana? In the absence of Minnesota's beloved Kirby Puckett, whose early retirement and untimely death haunt all Twins fans, Johan has made the franchise relevant. He has dominated in a manner that few have matched over the last century. More importantly, before this contract fiasco, he appeared to be happy in his surroundings. Alas, the honeymoon is now over. Because the Twins have backed themselves into a corner, they now have no control. They must either trade Santana, pay him, or lose him to free agency.

I believe the Twins have overplayed their hand. They had the opportunity to make several deals - including one with the Yankees - that would have improved their club in the long term, but that would have destroyed their credibility in the short term. However, credibility is really not an issue here, since the people of Minneapolis have long known that they have been had by Pohlad. So what are the Twins now to do?

Without a new ballpark, they cannot afford to pay Santana (unless the owner decides to open up his checkbook, which between you, me, and the lamppost, ain't happenin'.) If the Twins simply allow Santana to walk, their fans will be furious. Season ticket sales will diminish, furthering the franchise's supposed economic woes. The draft picks that Minnesota would receive as compensation would hardly remove the bitter taste from the mouths of Twins fans.

There is one other solution, and many people may not like it at all. The Twins could revisit trade talks with Boston. The Red Sox have offered two rather generous packages, one centered around feel-good story Jon Lester, and the other around budding superstar Jacoby Ellsbury. Who knows if either player will ever be as good as Boston fans hope they will become? However, a trade for either of Boston's top prospects would at least signal that the Twins have tried to salvage something positive from this situation.

Or they could just get it over with and trade him to the friggin' Yankees.

I leave this matter in your hands.

Humbly,

Editor

756*

2007-09-26T18:33:00.000-04:00

An internet poll concluded yesterday and conducted by fashion designer Mark Ecko, the current owner of Barry Bonds' 756th home run ball, has struck a nerve within the baseball community. Ecko purchased the record-setting ball on September 15th and created a website for fans to decide the ball's fate. Given three options -- give the ball to Cooperstown; brand the ball with an asterisk and then give it to Cooperstown; or launch the ball into space -- the people chose the asterisk.

Earlier this week, I voted to submit the ball unblemished to Cooperstown. I believe baseball history is what we make of it, for better or worse. I don't think the ball should be marked because one of the best aspects of being a baseball fan is arguing with your friends. Argument, discussion, nostalgia, and most importantly, records, are what make baseball fans happy. Whatever Mark Ecko's intent was, whether true belief in democracy, a love of baseball lore, or simply shameless self-promotion, his message will forever mark the famous ball.

While noble in its furtherance of the democratic process, Ecko's poll violates baseball fans by placing a final judgment on the record. Mark McGwire isn't in the Hall of Fame...where's his asterisk?

Red Sox - Yankees, Part 1

2007-04-21T20:23:00.000-04:00

Watching Friday night's latest epic battle between the Red Sox and Yankees was rewarding on many levels. Both teams always bring it, with whatever pieces they have available. Some years are leaner than others if the right pieces aren't in place. Regardless, being able to watch a playoff-type game at the end of April is a treat. But on to the game.

First, Alex Rodriguez is on a tear unlike any other except Pujols' last year. Of course, there are plenty of games left in April so we are witnessing history unfold. A-Rod has always been the guy most likely to be the first to break through the all-time home run barrier of 800, and this season is the perfect example. I have to be honest, it's amazing to watch a player, any player, be this locked in for so long.

Even though the Red Sox had their backs against the wall against Rivera in the 8th, they didn't seem intimidated. This team feels much different from the 2005 and 2006 teams, and the first clear reason is the pitching. Schilling is the nominal ace but isn't the best pitcher on the staff; Beckett has four wins already, and is mixing in way more breaking stuff than he was last year; Matsuzaka has been brilliant, but the offense hasn't picked him up; and Wakefield hasn't given up more than one run in any of his starts. Tavarez is about to go back to the bullpen, once Lester gets the go-ahead to return to the bigs. Having that kind of a rotation makes everything easier for the rest of the team. The hitters can go into a game knowing that if they score more than three runs, they're probably going to win.

Another big reason for yesterday's success was the contribution from the non-Papi-Manny-JD part of the lineup. Tekker, Coco, and Cora all really buckled down and came through in tight spots. Poor Dustin Pedroia looks a bit out of place so far. Coco nearly made a ridiculous catch in center on A-Rod's second bomb. Most importantly from my point of view is Varitek is starting to come around. Ideally, I'd like to see Coco moved up to the 2-hole, with Youk protecting JD, and Lowell and Varitek sliding down to 7th and 8th. Now, doesn't that seem a whole lot better than what looks like a drop-off from Drew at 5th to Lowell at 6th? Maybe Tekker will force his way into the 6th or 7th slot, if he can put together one more good year in the sun (as Jake Taylor would say).

Lastly, the Red Sox are clearly in Rivera's head. Varitek has his number, but beyond that, Rivera isn't as scary as he has been in the past. His cutter just wasn't there for him, and he backed himself into a corner trying to throw it anyway. Luis Gonzalez broke Mariano's impenetrable shield in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series; the Red Sox eliminated his mystique in the 2004 playoffs; and now, with two blown saves to start the season, an 8.44 ERA, and no movement on his cutter, will his skill come into question in New York? Or is it simply Joe Torre's fault for bringing in his trusted fireman in the 8th inning?

Max Power: Part II

2007-04-18T21:42:00.000-04:00

Now for the aftermath. A few days after the draft, I learned Kevin Gregg wouldn't be closing for Florida, so I dropped him. I went to the free agent list and who did I find sitting there? Mr. Rich Aurilia of the Giants, who is eligible at 1B, 2B, 3B, and SS. In 2006, Aurilia hit 23 out and drove 70 in, while sporting a nifty .349 OBP and .518 SLG. He should have been drafted.

I won my first weekly matchup, 8-4, and then (although it was after I had set my lineup) something fantastic happened. Astros manager Phil Garner made Dan Wheeler - my Dan Wheeler! - the closer and relegated Brad "In Orbit" Lidge to mop-up duty. Fortuitous? No. Serendipitous? Absolutely. Wheeler is an excellent complement to Papelbon, Gordon, and Broxton.

Then, last week, I made a crucial free-agent pickup. I dumped Red Sox #9 hitter Dustin Pedroia, whose numbers are...ugly. In return, I snagged Devil Rays closer Al Reyes, who was unowned for some reason. Reyes has already locked down several games for the D-Rays, and could potentially save 25 to 30. His value allowed me to improve my team significantly.

Because almost as soon as I picked up Reyes, I traded him and Felipe Lopez for Barry Bonds. I didn't at all like what I was seeing from Lopez, and I really want nothing to do with the Nats, who will be the worst team in baseball this year. Reyes was a really smart pickup because although he couldn't crack my starting lineup, he had value to a pitching-starved team. Lopez had also been sitting on the bench, due to his poor play somewhat, but mostly due to Kinsler's explosion.

Barry Bonds could hit 30 to 40 home runs this year, or he could get hurt and miss a lot of time. If he does get injured for the season, I would miss him, but it wouldn't cost me the season. In his first week as a member of Max Power, Mr. Bonds is my third outfielder, and his backup Josh Willingham is playing in the second UTIL spot behind Hafner. There's always room for a hot-handed free agent hitter, with Bonds on the DL or on the free agent list himself due to injury. But if Bonds does not get injured, and is the old Bonds we know that is one of the top OPS guys in the league, then I'll have made a steal of a deal. Even if Reyes does save 30, and what are the odds of that? He's never done it before (his current total of 5 is his career high), and he plays for the freaking Devil Rays. You never, ever, ever pay for saves. Never.

The day the trade went through, I had an open spot on my roster. I decided to pick up temporary Royals closer Joakim Soria. He comes in and basically blows the doors off, striking out two or three in an inning sometimes. Since Soria's a Royal, he can't start for Max Power. However, if he keeps saving games and striking out people, I might not have a choice. I'm hoping the trend continues. Octavio Dotel is hurt (again) and if/when he comes back, I can reconsider Soria's role and maybe pick up a free agent hurler, which again, I would base on the "hot hand" theory. I could also trade Soria, but it's too early to say. He had a great day today against the Tigers, getting his first major league victory in a two-inning, four-strikeout performance in the 9th and 10th innings.

Although it's early, I decided today to drop Boof Bonser. I'll keep my eye on him, but he's gotten lit up so far and I really just need some stability in the rotation. I already have basically a bunch of kids - Felix, Dontrelle, Snell, Ervin Santana, Broxton, Anibal Sanchez. But before I picked up a veteran arm, I added Jon Lester, the Red Sox SP who is soon to return to the majors after beating cancer. I'll stash Lester on the DL until he gets the call to replace Tavarez as Boston's fifth starter; perhaps he'll provide the luxury of a difficult roster decision. After I moved Lester to the DL, I had an open spot.

I philled it with phormer Phillies phavorite, Randy Wolf. He'll strike out guys and that's all Boof was really good for anyway. I wish they would have just kept the poor guy instead of giving his money to Adam Eaton. But that's another topic.

I'm very happy with the team so far, thanks to Felix Hernandez, Hanley Ramirez, Ian Kinsler, Russell Martin, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Ian Snell, Jonathan Broxton, and Barry Bonds. Especially Felix, Kinsler, Martin, and Hanley, who are ranked 7th, 3rd, 9th, and 11th overall, respectively, by Yahoo. It's very early, but so far those four players have been dominant. King Felix's one-hitter in Boston was amazing to watch. His stuff is absolutely filthy.

Unfortunately as I was finishing up this post, I learned King Felix left his start in the first inning with elbow tightness. Let the roller coaster begin...

Max Power

2007-04-18T20:43:00.000-04:00

Last time I wrote that for the purposes of fantasy baseball, power is king. I also warned against drafting one-dimensional stolen base artists. I tried to follow that logic in my draft, but you can judge for yourself how well I practiced what I was preachin'. Just for your reference, I play in a 12-team, 12-category, weekly roster edit, head-to-head league. We count R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, and SB for hitters; and for pitchers we count W, L, K, SV, ERA, and WHIP. Our starting rosters include C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, and five bench spots. We also allow one DL spot. And now, my 2007 squad - Max Power.

1. Carl Crawford, 2. Travis Hafner, 3. Matt Holliday,
4. Hanley Ramirez, 5. Jonathan Papelbon, 6. Felix Hernandez,
7. Brian Roberts, 8. Prince Fielder, 9. Dontrelle Willis,
10. Felipe Lopez, 11. Ervin Santana, 12. Tom Gordon,
13. Adrian Gonzalez, 14. Russell Martin, 15. Ian Kinsler,
16. Ian Snell, 17. Edwin Encarnacion, 18. Jonathan Broxton,
19. Dan Wheeler, 20. Josh Willingham, 21. Shane Victorino,
22. Anibal Sanchez, 23. Boof Bonser, 24. Dustin Pedroia,
25. Kevin Gregg

I had the tenth pick out of twelve, and to let you know, I wasn't really concerned about the draft slot's favorableness. Although I would have liked a higher pick, being lower down gave me the chance to grab two of the top 15 players this year. No complaints. I started off by taking the best available player, Carl Crawford. I expect him to steal at least 55 bases this year, as well as hit more than 20 home runs and score close to 100 runs. Though it seems as if Crawford's been around forever already, he's barely gotten started (turns 25 in July), and on top of that, he's the fastest player in the league.

With my second selection, 15th overall, I chose Travis Hafner. Although "Pronk" has missed a decent number of games over the past two seasons, I expect him to produce his best year yet in 2007. I'm projecting 53 HRs and 141 RBIs for the big guy; that is of course assuming he doesn't get hit by a pitch and miss 30 games. Why such a big jump from last year's numbers besides health? Hafner led the AL in OPS last year after coming in second for the two years previous.

Matt Holliday and Hanley Ramirez in the third and fourth rounds kept me quite happy. I'm not sure why either player was available at the time, but then again, what do I know? After taking Jonathan Papelbon and Felix Hernandez in the fifth and sixth rounds, I now had two elite power hitters, two of the few elite speed threats, an elite closer, and an ace. Word.

Brian Roberts in the seventh round surprised me, but I was happy to take him. He had a career-high 36 SBs last year despite missing a month. I consider him to be a top-5 second baseman. The people in my league should be ashamed for leaving him past the sixth round. In the eighth round I chose Prince Fielder, even though I really didn't want him. At that stage of the draft, I had to make a value pick and Prince's 30 HRs and 100 RBIs are going to fit in just fine. The ninth round brought me Dontrelle Willis, for whom I am supremely thankful. After a rough 2004, Dontrelle slipped to me in the 20th round in my 2005 draft. He ended up winning 22 games and striking out 170 batters. So after a slightly down 2006, I figured Dontrelle would get no respect. Again. I snatched him up to hold my #2 starter spot, so I need more than the 12 wins he put up last year.

Felipe Lopez in the 10th round seemed like a steal to me; the guy had 44 SBs last year and can score a bunch of runs. I thought he was going in the 8th or 9th round, so this was another value pick. In retrospect, this was a bad pick because I really didn't need any more speed. More on this later. With the 11th round pick I panicked and selected Ervin Santana. An ace at home, Santana is useless on the road. However, he is still young enough that his "upside" is enticing. I felt like I needed a third starting pitcher, but Santana may not be that reliable. We'll see. Getting Tom Gordon in the 12th round filled out my bullpen. Everyone seems to be worried about Gordon going down with an injury, especially because of his heavy workload with the Yankees, but until that injury comes (if it does) he's one of the few sure save options in the National League. I won't be relying on Gordon to be my #2 closer all season, though, using him more as a #2a to pair with a #2b. Again, more on that later.

These next three picks are probably going to be the difference-makers for me this season. With my 13th pick, I stole Adrian Gonzalez. The young Padre first baseman is an up-and-coming power hitter who clubbed 24 last year. Although he plays in an extreme pitcher's park, he still gets great marks for OBP and SLG due to his extra base hits.
He slips into my corner infield spot, for now. At 14, I took Russell Martin, who is already a top-5 catcher. He stole 10 bases last year and can easily get 15 this year, not to mention his great OBP and run scoring ability. My 15th round pick was Ian Kinsler, another young second baseman. His combination of power and speed is dangerous, especially because he's part of a middle infield that already included Hanley Ramirez, Brian Roberts, and Felipe Lopez.

Ian Snell in the 16th round seemed like a fine idea, seeing as I needed a 4th starter and Snell can strike out a ton of hitters. Although I don't expect him to win 15 games due to Pittsburgh's mediocre offense, he will contribute in the other categories. Edwin Encarnacion in the 17th round was a pure need pick, as I didn't have a third baseman. I had targeted Kansas City rookie Alex Gordon in this round before the draft, but some crazy owner in my league took him in the 14th round. So far third base is a big problem for me. My next pick, the 18th, was Dodgers setup man Jonathan Broxton. I hope he takes over as closer this year, but even if he doesn't, he'll strike out almost 100 guys while pitching less than 100 innings. Pretty useful. My next pick, Dan Wheeler of the Astros, is another setup man who could become a closer. At this point of the draft I was looking to round out my team's core, and I had been neglecting pitchers earlier, so I didn't mind taking back-to-back relievers.

My 20th round selection was young Marlins slugger Josh Willingham, he of the 26 home runs in 2006. I don't know why he was available in the 20th round, I mean, 26 home runs. Come on. At 21, I took Shane "The Flyin' Hawaiian" Victorino of my hometown Phillies. If Victorino steals 20 bags this year, I'll be happy. Too bad he's not good enough to crack my starting lineup. With my 22nd pick, I stole Anibal Sanchez. He helps my starting rotation a lot, allowing me to spot start him when Santana is on the road, or just to fill out one of my "any picther" spots. In the 22nd round, for a guy who had 10 wins last year, I'll take it. My last three picks were shots in the dark: Boof Bonser (23), Twins SP; Dustin Pedroia (24), Red Sox 2B; and Kevin Gregg (25), Marlins RP. Boof is the #2 starter in Minnesota, as scary as that must be for Twins fans, so what the hell right? Pedroia was purely a Red Sox love pick, and it helps that he plays second base. Kevin Gregg was rumored to be a closer for the Marlins at the time of this draft (before the Phish traded for Jorge Julio).

So there's my 2007 draft. Digest, and move on to Part II when you're ready. As always, thanks for reading!

Fantasy Baseball 2007

2007-03-22T10:14:00.000-04:00

My fantasy baseball draft is tonight, and let's just say I'm excited. In 2005 and 2006, I had some pretty bad drafts, due to a combination of lack of preparation and panic. But this year, I've burned the candle at both ends trying to unearth this year's versions of Hanley Ramirez and Jonathan Papelbon. I've mock drafted more times than I'd like to admit. And what have I learned? Nothing that I didn't already know about the general ways a person can succeed in fantasy baseball. But specifically...

Power is king. In a roto league, this is of course true, but in a head-to-head league, it applies even more. Take my head-to-head league for example. We use 6 categories for batting (replacing AVG with OBP and SLG) and 6 categories for pitching (adding losses for pitchers). Let's say you draft Ryan Howard with your first pick. When the 2006 NL MVP sends one deep into the South Philadelphia sky, your whole offense gets a boost. Why? A home run registers for the "counting" stats (HR, R, RBI) and also boosts your OBP and SLG. Because SLG is essentially the number of total bases a player collects per at bat, the more bases your man touches, the better. There's a good chance that by including SLG, we are rewarding power a bit too much. But since AVG is no longer an accurate barometer of a player's value, we have to adjust. Perhaps down the road, we'll use AVG with RISP as a stat, but that's not happening this year.

The lesson here is to adjust your draft style based on your league's settings. Am I going to draft Juan Pierre? Not a chance in hell. His OBP is atrocious for a leadoff man, he doesn't score many runs or knock in many baserunners, and he doesn't hit home runs. Most of his hits are singles, so his SLG is pretty low. All he can do is steal bases. So if Juan Pierre steals 58 bases this year, you might think you've done a pretty good job drafting him. But his other stats will kill your team on a weekly basis. You're better off drafting a few guys who can swipe 10-30 bags, and filling in SBs that way. Did you know David Wright stole 20 bases last year? Jason Bay had 11. If you get those two guys in the second and third rounds, why do you need a guy like Pierre or Corey Patterson?

I can't reveal too much because some of my leaguemates read this blog. I'll have a full report and analysis of my team after the draft. Wish me luck!

Goodbye, Vuke

2007-03-09T10:10:00.000-05:00

In their history, the Philadelphia Phillies have won just one World Championship, defeating the Kansas City Royals in 1980. Since then, the organization has endured countless changes, save one: the presence of John Vukovich ("Vuke"). No matter what uniform the team was wearing that decade, or what stadium the team played in, or who the manager was, or who the GM was, Vuke was there. He lived and breathed Phillies baseball for the better part of four decades, but on Thursday, Vuke couldn't hang on anymore. At the age of 59, John Vukovich died of complications from an inoperable brain tumor.

The casual baseball fan probably doesn't know much about Vuke's playing career, but that's OK. It doesn't matter what his lifetime batting average was (.161), or what his lifetime OBP was (.203), or even how many home runs he hit (6). What does matter is that Vuke was always there teaching the game, whether as third base coach, as bench coach, as manager, or as in his final seasons, as a front office assistant. No matter how bad the Phillies got (and they were atrocious from 1984 to 1993), Vuke's presence always lent the organization an air of credibility.

Thinking back to all those awful afternoons and nights I spent watching the Phillies, there's only one face I can remember that was always there: Vuke. Nick Leyva, Mike Schmidt, Curt Schilling, Mitch Williams? Just passing through. Managers come and go, players get traded or sign free agent contracts (or give up career-ending home runs in the bottom of the 9th in Game Six when we had the Blue Jays down and out!). But seminal baseball minds like John Vukovich don't come along very often. To Philadelphia, to the Phillies, John Vukovich WAS baseball.

Which brings us to the point of all of this. I never saw him play. I never spoke to him in person. But what I did do, was watch John Vukovich teach for 20 years. I didn't even need to hear him on the field, all I needed to do was watch his eyes, his lips, his hands. The players looked to Vuke for direction, and he sure was willing to give. Since 1980, the Phillies have had 12 managers (including some interim stints by Vuke and Gary Varsho). Can anyone really argue that any of those managers had an impact approximating that of Vuke's? My words don't do justice to the man. Please read Jayson Stark's loving tribute to a Phillie who can never be replaced. We'll miss you, Vuke. Say hi to the Tugger for us.

Pitchers and Catchers! Pitchers and Catchers!

2007-02-14T00:57:00.000-05:00

There's nothing quite like those two words you see in the headline. Spring Training 2007 is upon us, and there's no reason to wait on a discussion of five of the season's biggest stories:

1. What will be the reaction to Barry Bonds breaking the all-time home run mark?

In typical fashion, Major League Baseball has already screwed up the Bonds home run thing before it's even begun. In this space I have certainly criticized Bonds, but if he breaks the record, the league and especially the commissioner have to recognize the feat. It's really not a big deal, he's never going to win a championship, so just let him have his record. MLB should really just use this as an opportunity to celebrate Aaron's career (and give Bonds his due, I mean the guy is one of the best ever, before the steroids). But they'll screw it up even more before this is all said and done, you can count on that.

It's not like Barry Bonds is going to be #1 on the home run list for long. This is obviously his final season, a desperate and pathetic attempt to remain relevant, after which he will remain the Home Run King for barely enough time for anyone to remember. The real home run champion is clear, it's Alex Rodriguez, and he has a damn good chance of passing Bonds. Does A-Rod juice? I don't care, it wouldn't make me hate him any less. He is one hell of a player though.

2. Will the Marlins trade Dontrelle Willis?

There have been rumblings out of Miami recently that the Marlins may actually get a stadium deal done at some point in the near future, keeping them in South Florida. The draw of a new stadium won't have the same impact in this market as a traditional market such as New York, but there will certainly be a great economic incentive for the Marlins to have a gate attraction. His name is Miguel Cabrera.

Problem is, what to do with Dontrelle "I Really Had to Go" Willis? (Side note, this offseason Willis was arrested in Miami Beach for public intoxication. He was observed by a Miami Beach PD officer, who claimed Willis stumbled out of his Mercedes and urinated. Good work, D-Train. Way to set an example for the kids.) Willis' value will never be higher than it is now, and probably has already dropped a bit. The market for pitching is still controlled by the sellers, so I expect Willis to be gone as of July 31. This assumes Willis stays healthy, which if you check his career, is certainly not a given. The Marlins simply can't afford to sign both Cabrera and Willis. If they have half a brain, they'll keep Cabrera and build on their outfield and bullpen with what they get for Willis.

3. Can anyone stop the Yankees?

The real question is, will the Yankees ever stop beating themselves? The Tigers looked completely outclassed in Game 1 of the ALDS, but these aren't your Father's Yankees. These Yankees don't know how to win anymore. Ever since the 2001 World Series, the Yankees have been ... snakebitten. You might even say they're ... Cursed? That's right, I said it. Cursed.

That's what you get, Johnny Damon. Bastard.

The team as currently assembled will run roughshod over the league during the regular season and is probably the favorite to win the AL East. The pitching (as assembled now--we can't presume future trades) is not good enough to win in the playoffs (just like last year). The Yankees will win the World Series again when they remember what got them there in the first place: solid pitching, timely hitting, and a whole lot of luck.

4. Who will win the NL West?

What a difference a year makes. At the end of 2005, this division was pretty much worthless. Fast forward to this offseason, in which the pitching in the NL West was markedly improved. There's a clear division between the Rockies/Giants and the Padres/Dodgers/Diamondbacks groups, at least in my mind. Name a pitcher on the Rockies or Giants. Go on, I can wait. Seriously I can wait.

Now look at San Diego (Peavy, Maddux), Los Angeles (Schmidt), and Arizona (Johnson, Webb). The Rockies are in serious long-term rebuilding and won't be a legit contender this year. The Giants are crumbling as usual and allowed themselves to be hijacked by Bonds for another year. Jason Schmidt left San Francisco, and they really didn't do anything to replace him. They'll be relying on young guys like Noah Lowry and Matt Cain who, while promising, are hardly in the company of Maddux, Johnson, et. al.

The division is the Dodgers' to lose, they just have too much talent. But, that's why they play the games.

5. How many games will the Cubs lose?

This is always a fun question, because no matter how you answer, you'll never be disappointed. Cubs fans are the most delusional in baseball, and are almost as delusional as Lakers fans. Cubs fans ALWAYS think their team has a shot. This team, has no shot. I don't care if I'm wrong and have to retract in 8 months. The Cubs have Soriano and Lee and Ramirez. Awesome. They also are relying on Lilly and Marquis.

Swallow hard, Cubs fans. Swallow. Hard.

I don't see any way the Cubs can get to more than 85 wins. And that's being generous. Prove me wrong, Hendry. Prove me wrong.

Rise Up!

2006-11-29T22:01:00.000-05:00

Boy, there is a lot of money being spent this offseason. I know, I must sound like a broken record. But I can't get over the daily shock quickly enough to receive the following day's news. Adam Eaton, a pitcher who has never won more than 11 games in a season, gets $24 million over three years from (who else?) the Phillies. He's a flyball pitcher going to a notorious launching pad, he has an injury history, and he's never shown anything more than #4 stuff at best. That's exactly what he'll be for the Phillies, and that's exactly what is wrong with baseball (for today's topic, anyway).

A #4 starter apparently costs $8 million a year. There are plenty of six-figure players in the Bigs (pity them), but there are far too many players at a similar skill level who are being paid seven figures. GMs have to spend money to make money, and when they make it, they push the money back into the team. Right? Right?

Seems to me that every season, the free agent signings become more and more outlandish. And the GMs just keep giving away millions of dollars, while fans are asked to pay ever higher ticket, concession, merchandise, and memorabilia prices to see a continually mediocre product. A.J. Burnett got $55 million over 5 years last winter, and the sport erupted. For a time. But now, nobody cares about that contract because Eaton is only getting paid $3 million less per season. And really, who would want to pay $8 million to Eaton when they could just pay $11 million to Burnett? (Shed a tear for the days when both guys would be making the league minimum). What a choice to have to make!

It sickens me, the whole thing absolutely sickens me. As fans, it's our responsibility to inform the ownership and management of our teams that we won't accept their buffoonery. If you name me your favorite team, I will be able to tell you a free agency horror story. I promise. Despite the continuing trend of bizarre, and often insultingly large, contracts being given out, fans seem happy to go to the ballpark and "hope for the best."

Well let me tell you something, America. That's a Cubs fan's mentality. And I won't allow it to poison the fans of other cities. Don't let yourselves get to the point where you're so used to losing that you think a 31 year-old player with a career .325 OBP and 224 CAREER walks is worth $136 million. I'm convinced that there is absolutely nothing we can do to save Cubs fans, but dammit, I refuse to give up on the rest of you.

Please, continue to go to games. But attend with witty signs, perhaps a bag over your head, maybe even spell out "Fire (GM's name)" in paint on your chest with your group of friends. Carry monopoly money with you at all times when attending a ballgame, to throw at any player who hits .275 or has a 4.75 ERA. Be sure you drink a lot of coffee, or beer, or both, to make sure your decision-making powers are as impaired as possible. This way, you may begin to "see" the team your GM apparently sees in his dreams.

This game belongs to us, and they are taking it away from us. And we are letting them.

You Paid How Much?

2006-11-16T10:43:00.000-05:00

Every offseason, something really crazy happens. In fact, a whole lot of ridiculous contracts seem to get signed every single year. Despite that, a lot of people are going to be blown away by the contracts that get signed this winter. While we haven't gotten into full Hot Stove mode yet, as it's not quite Thanksgiving, we're almost there.

Wait.

We're there. The Red Sox paid a $51.1 million posting fee to the Seibu Lions for the right to negotiate a contract for World Baseball Classic star pitcher, Daisuke Matsuzaka. For you futbol (soccer) fans, this "posting fee" is equivalent to a transfer fee. Matsuzaka just happens to be represented by Scott Boras, who's not the most powerful agent in baseball by accident. Let's assume the Red Sox are going to work out a deal with the Lions - 28 of the 30 negotiating days remain - because God knows, John Henry didn't just send a $51.1 million check over there because he's being a nice guy.

Japanese baseball star Daisuke Matsuzaka will be wearing a Red Sox uniform in 2007.

It gets better. The Red Sox have to sign Matsuzaka - who reportedly throws at least six pitches with exceptional command and location - to a four- or five-year deal to make this all worthwhile. That'll cost them (at least) over $12 million a season. That's roughly $100 million over four years or roughly $115 million over five years for one player. Now, many insiders believe that Boras will seek a shorter deal from Boston, likely three years, in order to get his client on the free agent market before Matsuzaka's 30th birthday. However, Boras' ultimate goal in all negotiations is to get his client the highest average annual salary possible. So it's most likely that Boras will use the threat of taking Matsuzaka to free agency after the 2009 season (and by default, to the rival Yankees) as leverage to get a more lucrative deal from the Boston brass.

Having said that, the Red Sox also know that Boras doesn't have much room to negotiate. The Sox paid $51.1 million to have exclusive negotiating rights; that means if the Sox and Lions can't work out a deal, Matsuzaka must return to Japan, and Boras loses millions in commission. Therefore it's safe to say that sometime soon, probably around Thanksgiving (as the Sox have a history of making big news on Turkey Day), the Sox will agree to a contract with Matsuzaka that will pay him around $60 million over 5 years.

Pitching is at a premium in today's MLB, and the Matsuzaka posting fee is the best example we have that proves the baseball world really has gone completely nuts. If he's the best pitcher on the free agent market, the Sox will have paid a high price for talent, but also for keeping that talent away from the Yankees and other rivals. They will have also paid a little extra for creating some space for themselves in the lucrative Japanese market. If Matsuzaka settles in as a number 3 starter - his scouting reports say he pitches up in the zone often, which means he challenges hitters but also leaves himself open to the big hit, just like new Sox teammate Josh Beckett - he will be one of the most overpaid players in sports history.

It's likely - given the news reports, scouting reports, and Matsuzaka's performance in the World Baseball Classic - that Matsuzaka will be something less than "the best pitcher in baseball" and something more than a number 3 starer. Next year, Boston could have a rotation full of number 2 and 3 starters: Schilling (a bulldog, but no longer an ace), Beckett (a glorified number 3 posing as a number 2, until he remembers how to throw a breaking ball again), Papelbon (coming off a shoulder injury and entering his first year as a starter), Matsuzaka (the unknown entity), and Wakefield (a number 4 starter whose durability and production have proven invaluable to Boston for over a decade).

American League opponents, beware. There's a new big spender in town, and he's thrown all caution to the wind. Let the insanity begin.

Wash Gets His Shot

2006-11-06T10:23:00.000-05:00

Today is a both a great and a tragic day for Major League Baseball and the Texas Rangers, but most of all, for Ron Washington, who was hired today to be the next manager of the team. "Wash" has, like Willie Randolph before him, finally landed a managerial position after years of watching other, less qualified candidates get hired in front of him. And while a man's race shouldn't be a prominent topic in a baseball story, the sport and the men who control it have given us no choice. Out of the 27 managers in MLB (Washington, San Diego, and Oakland have vacancies), just two are black (Randolph and Washington), and just two are hispanic (Ozzie Guillen and Fredi Gonzalez). During the season, when two prominent figures - Dusty Baker and Frank Robinson - were employed (the Cubs and Nationals fired Baker and Robinson at season's end), this story received little to no attention.

It's always touchy to bring up race relations in sports, and especially touchy to suggest that one group is not properly represented. I don't have any statistics on player demographic profiles, or the percentage of black, white, and hispanic players in MLB. But I do know that two black managers out of 27 is 7.4%, that two hispanic managers out of 27 is 7.4%, and that four minority managers out of 27 is 14.8%. I also know for a fact that the percentage of white players in baseball is decidedly lower than 85.2%.

The NFL is asking this question, and some would say too lightly and too late, but at least the league is asking the question: why are minorities so poorly represented in the coaching ranks of professional (and collegiate) sports? This is a question that MLB must face, and that will no doubt be completely ignored this winter. With a new collective bargaining agreement, the Winter Meetings in December, and unprecedented parity which has revitalized the fan bases of several former baseball meccas, MLB has little reason to address any "dirty" issues. Especially because the steroids story has received so much attention and because MLB doesn't want any more bad press, I don't anticipate hearing any outcry over race relations in baseball, at least not this winter. That assumption on my part perfectly characterizes a sport that is notorious for burying its head in the sand.

Ron Washington's pedestrian playing career is greatly overshadowed by his coaching career, in which he has been highly regarded. He is featured, albeit briefly, in Michael Lewis' Moneyball. Washington is depicted as a player's coach, a man who pulls no punches while giving elite instruction. He'll be given the chance to turn around the Texas Rangers, who haven't made the playoffs this century and who are plagued by a chronic pitching deficiency. Good luck, Wash, you deserve the chance.

Wrong Way

2006-10-27T17:48:00.000-04:00

It's not a big deal, really, but this just gets to me. Typically, MLB doesn't allow teams to make announcements during the World Series. The hope behind this stance is that not only will teams refrain from making headlines, but that teams will simply wait for the season to end before making their offseason moves. For various reasons, the San Francisco Giants were allowed to make a major announcement today, celebrating the hiring of new manager Bruce Bochy (formerly manager of the San Diego Padres).

Read the link for me real fast and come back. Maybe Bochy does have to go to Japan. So what? In the media blitz era, it's deemed "OK" for a team to make a major announcement during the Fall Classic? Why, to get a photo op? So 30 journalists can scribble the same "rebirth of the Giants" column? I don't agree with the continual erosion of the things we hold dear. This most recent development is a microcosm of the dwindling expectations we have for ourselves.

Like I said, it's probably not that big of a deal, especially since most of the country doesn't even know the World Series is being played (St. Louis leads Detroit three games to one heading into tonight's contest). And I don't say that condescendingly. I honestly believe that most people simply don't care enough to watch what has been a boring, sloppy Series. That's all I have for today. What do you think?

Sawx

2006-10-11T12:50:00.000-04:00

-by Seth Dembowitz
Special contributor to baseballuniverse.blogspot.com and a HUGE Red Sox fan.

Reproduced in its entirety, unedited.

October 6, 2006, NEW YORK, NY - Now I don’t want to go off on a rant here, but…

We suck. We trade for Beckett (major disappointment, obviously, please sir learn how to throw a freaking curveball) and Lowell (great pickup, but no one can realistically expect him to be back at third next year) and in the process lose the NL batting champ/All Star shortstop who may be one of the best prospects at his position since Jeter, and a guy who turned out to be one of the best rookie pitchers in baseball with a very promising future (and by the way he threw the only no hitter in baseball). We trade Wells after the deadline for a sack of baseballs and he pitches in a playoff game.

On July 31 we were in first place by a game and a half, I think. The Stankees get Lidle (questionable and yet still a starting pitcher who can throw the ball over the plate) and Bobby, who literally gets on base 2/3 of the time and went 18 for 20 in the 5 game massacre series to which we were witnesses. WE DO NOTHING. WE SIT ON OUR GOSH DARN HANDS AND DO ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. By September 1 we were pretty much out of the race. By October 1 we were in THIRD PLACE behind THE FREAKING TORONTO BLUE JAYS.

The following former Fens favorites are in the playoffs this year while our men are fishing and spelunking:

Nomah

Walkah

Bellhoahn

Jash Bahd (who hit .333 after being traded)

Fat Wells

Suppahn (a stretch, I know, but still falls into the discussion)

Aaron Sele (also a stretch, and old, but still)

Johnny Traitor (to whom we should have made a more competitive offer, he makes me sick, I don’t want him anyway, but you know what I’m saying)

Cliff Floyd

Derek Lowe (the ONLY pitcher in the history of baseball to CLINCH ALL THREE SERIES)

Billy Mueller (former batting champion)

Embree (on the Pads)

Seanez (on the Pads)

David “My Hero” Roberts, who will be honored and remembered until the end of time in New England for stealing that base.

Hell, half of the Padres roster are Boston rejects. And yet, they are in the playoffs. I know, out of a bad division, yet again, these rag tag losers are still playing baseball while we cry in our preverbal soup.

Egg on your face Mr. Epstein? When does the grace period end? Can you make the bad man stop?

On the bright side, look for Mr. Crisp to be manning a light tower in Alaska while Vernon Wells suits up in the classic home whites with red trim. It is inevitable. This is a deal even this front office can’t screw up. Or can they?

Should I write a rant for your blog? I’m getting into this now.

Fool's Gold

2006-10-08T12:54:00.000-04:00

In case you've been asleep for 24 hours, the Tigers knocked out the Yankees last night, sending the Bronx Bombers to a sixth consecutive postseason in which they failed to win it all. And as the culture in Yankeeland is win the World Series or be branded a complete failure, a lot of people, including ESPN's Buster Olney, are calling for Alex Rodriguez's ouster in NYC. As an avid Yankee hater, I couldn't care less what happens. There can be no good that comes from this.

Olney portrays a future conversation between Yankees GM Brian Cashman and the man known as A-Fraud. And because I love you so much, here is a [snip]: "Alex, it's not working. The situation is going to get much worse before it gets better. For the next four months, your statistics will be recited 79,994,236 times on every sports talk show in town, on every Web site: No RBI in your last 12 playoff games. Four hits in your last 41 at-bats in the playoffs. Sixteen consecutive at-bats without a hit with runners in scoring position in the playoffs, the worst such stat in the history of baseball. And I'm sorry to say, but you will listen to all of it; you will be hurt by all of it. Some players ignore the chatter, don't care about it. You do care about what others say; it's part of what has helped make you great."

The Yankees are dumber than I thought if they get rid of A-Rod. He's one of the best players in baseball, hands down. How can anyone call A-Rod "dead weight?" I don't even have to recite stats, we're beyond stats with this guy. Any team in baseball would consider him an asset, except the Yankees. Now, because The Boss is completely crazy, the Yankees will trade Rodriguez this winter. Probably to Anaheim/LA or Philadelphia or some other team that can "afford" one of the best players to ever suit up.

New York is the only city that could turn Alex Rodriguez from "potentially the greatest player ever" to "#8 hitter in an elimination Game 4 and basically a waste of space." He plays 3rd because they tell him to; he highlights his hair because he wants to please them; he broods incessantly because he thinks he has to...this is the state of New York Yankees baseball.

"Is there any hope, Gandalf?"
"There was never much hope. Just a fool's hope."

Note to Self

2006-10-07T13:50:00.000-04:00

Dear Adam,

Stop making predictions. You look like a fool.

Regards,

Adam

I Am Fortune's Fool!

2006-10-05T12:27:00.000-04:00

"I will be gracious to whom I will be gracious, and will show mercy on whom I will show mercy" (Exodus 33:19).

The God of Abraham is notoriously fickle. As well the baseball gods, like those of the Greeks, are no different. A man may lose his gift at any moment, fall from grace like Icarus with no warning, and yet the world of baseball marches on. On Wednesday night, the world saw Torii Hunter lose millions of dollars in the blink of an eye. As a free agent this winter, the man known to many as "Spiderman" was expected to command a contract with an average annual value (AAV) of (at least) approximately $12 million. With Minnesota constantly saddled by payroll concerns, there have been loud whispers that the Twins will not renew the contract of their star centerfielder. With Hunter at age 31, and with his skills beginning to show a gradual decline, those whispers are quickly cycling through baseball's back channels, running through the minds of GMs. If he's getting older and is going to make critical errors in the playoffs (this is the second time Hunter has erred and allowed an inside-the-park HR), the big-market GM thinks, "do I really want to overpay for this guy?" Cuidase, yo.

Now, after making a ghastly fielding decision on Wednesday night against the A's, Hunter's defensive prowess is under the most powerful of microscopes. On a Mark Kotsay fly ball to center, Hunter charged and dove, with the ball knuckling away from him at the last second. Kotsay's strike, which should have been an out or at worst, a double, turned into a game- and series-changing inside-the-park home run. Every moment of playoff baseball is highly scrutinized, and Hunter's monstrous error will be played over and over this winter. It will be fresh in the minds of hundreds of baseball executives at the Winter Meetings (Dec. 4-6 in Orlando, FL), who will think twice before dealing with the Twins (who obviously would prefer to trade Hunter instead of just letting him walk).

With fellow centerfielders Vernon Wells and Andruw Jones on the market as well - two men who are younger, hit for better power, and are well-regarded as the top two centerfielders in baseball - Hunter's error may have cost him more than his pride. If Jones and Wells get the megadeals they are anticipated to receive, Hunter will almost certainly feel slighted when his free agent offers are more than $4 million below (in AAV) those of his counterparts.

The ball bounces where it pleases, and answers to the will of no man.

Tigers Outclassed

2006-10-04T09:44:00.000-04:00

I'll be the first one to point out something wrong with the Yankees, believe me. Nothing pains me more than watching them in the playoffs year after year after year. But watching last night's ALDS Game 1, I couldn't help but notice...these Yankees are damn good. Too good.

The Tigers, and more to the point, starting pitcher Nate Robertson, were completely out of their league. They looked lost, unfocused, and mostly, in awe of their opponents and their opponents' house. Along the way, Cap'n Intangibles went 5 for 5 and Jason Giambi hit a big-time bomb, both overshadowing a stellar effort by Yankees ACE Chien-Ming Wang. Unfortunately for the Tigers and the people of Detroit, who have waited 19 years to make the playoffs, this series is already over.

Tigers players, coaches, personnel, and fans are going to have a long winter, after losing the AL Central title on the last day of the season (and with it, home-field advantage). IF Los Tigres had managed to clinch their division, well...let's not even go there.

As for the Yankees, well, they look unstoppable. If their bullpen can hold up, and that's a very big if, the Bombers should win their first World Series title since 2000.

ALDS: Yankees in 4.

House of Cards

2006-09-29T12:56:00.000-04:00

Everyone knows the Yankees have won (bought) a bajillion World Series titles. But not nearly as many people know that the Cardinals have won the second-most number of titles among MLB franchises (9). So from that perspective, the Cardinals are the Yankees of the NL. Which is why I take such great pleasure in witnessing St. Louis' historic collapse this month. It wasn't enough to watch the Cardinals limp through the 2004 World Series, unable to win a single game. As an unabashed Yankee-hater, I've grown to despise the "professional" clubs like NYY and STL; they don't play music in the locker room, they don't smile on the field, and they bore me to death. It's a game. Get dirty, have fun, leave it on the field.

The Cardinals, just this month, once held a mighty 7-game lead on perennial cardiac kid Houston. However, that lead is now a paltry 0.5 games as the Cardinals have completely given up on themselves, losing 8 of 9 games. As a Tony LaRussa hater, I couldn't be happier.

If the Cards cough this one up, it will be one of the worst baseball collapses ever. It won't be as big of a choke as the 2004 ALCS (no team will ever choke as hard as the Yankees did that year), but it will be on par with the 1964 Phillies. We're witnessing history, folks, and I'm thrilled. Here's wishing nothing but bad hops, missed calls, and crappy luck for the Cardinals' final days. Maybe a team that wants to play in the playoffs (Houston) deserves that NL Central title just a little more.

Although, who wants to wear the crown of such a tragic kingdom? The NL Central rapidly became baseball's worst division this year, in part due to the tight races in the NL West, AL Central, and NL Wild Card. If there is such a thing as karma, maybe Brad Lidge will be able to put enough mustard on an 8th-inning fastball to strike out Pujols on the last day of the season. Wouldn't it be nice?

The Why

2006-09-28T12:35:00.000-04:00

I had just begun to get on a roll, I was increasing my readership, and then when the summer hit, I slammed into a wall. I just couldn't post anymore. I was posting for the sake of posting, not because I had anything interesting to say. I was trying too hard to be a news source when I should have just been me. So I guess that's my half-assed explanation as to why this space has been largely dormant for the better part of four months. From now on, I may not post every day, but I certainly won't be trying to be something I'm not: a run-of-the-mill white sports journalist.

The coverage of baseball in recent years has gotten really fuzzy, hasn't it? Peter Gammons was the voice of baseball for two decades, and for most of this year we haven't been able to enjoy his columns due to his health problems. (Here's wishing a continually positive recovery for one of the greatest sportswriters ever). Harold Reynolds was one of the smartest analysts on Baseball Tonight, and he was fired from ESPN for what? Supposed sexual harassment? According to HR, it was just a hug. Who knows what to believe anymore? Or who to trust?

There are no clear-cut heroes and villains anymore, on the field or off; no singular franchises; and hardly any players who can be identified with one team for an extended period of time. Barry Bonds is vilified by almost everyone -- including me -- but his defenders have a solid point (that being, that Barry didn't invent steroids and isn't the only user, and shouldn't be singled out). Meanwhile, newly anointed "Good Guy" Ryan Howard is threatening to break the 61 mark....but is dogged by speculation that "nobody is really clean." If we can't give Ryan Howard the benefit of the doubt...why are we still watching?

Baseball is a passion for me, my first love. I first read the standings in the Philadelphia Inquirer when I was six years old. I started this space because I wanted to share that love with all of you, and in trying to conform to some unknown standard, I lost interest. I can't keep up with the everyday minutae of the baseball world on a daily basis; there's simply too much to report. But I can keep you up to date with my perspective on what's going on in baseball; what's being written about baseball; and where baseball is headed.

It may not be much of an explanation, but it's the truth. If I have any readers left, I encourage you to start checking back regularly. I've got a lot to say.

Reds Call Off Season

2006-07-13T19:02:00.000-04:00

I was going to post this on Thursday afternoon but then I thought, maybe the Reds' bullpen is really that bad (it is) and they really need help now (they did). So I decided to see if after cooling off, I would feel differently.

I don't....

The stupidity of this trade is beyond measure.

Nationals get:

Austin Kearns
Felipe Lopez (yes, THAT Felipe Lopez, the starting shortstop, 2005 All-Star and Silver Slugger)
Ryan Wagner (RP) (2003 1st round pick)

Reds get:

Gary Majewski (RP)
Bill Bray (RP)
Royce Clayton (yeah, he's somehow still in the league)
Brendan Harris (infielder)
Daryl Thompson (pitching prospect)

The Reds are cursed. And if they weren't before, I'm cursing them now. That's right. You're officially cursed, Cincinnati. Great new owner, huh?

Hoffman's Bell Rung

2006-07-12T17:16:00.000-04:00

In a rare twist of events, last night's MLB All-Star game was competitive, and at times, mildly entertaining. Vlad Guerrero and David Wright (candidate for Most Hyped Athlete of 2006) both hit solo shots in the first two innings, and that was it for the action for most of the game. With two men on and two out in the top of the ninth, and with two strikes on him against one of the best closers ever, Texas shortstop Michael Young pounded a game-winning triple into the right-center field gap. The heartbreaking loss was not completely unexpected, as the National League has found a way to lose every All-Star game since the Clinton years (with one ghastly tie, in 2002).

Trevor Hoffman, as we all know, throws a great changeup. Some baseball guys think Hoffman's changeup is the best, period. When "Hells Bells" plays in Petco Park, everyone in San Diego, especially the visiting team, knows that Hoffman is going to throw changeups, and he's going to make people look silly. So why, after getting two quick strikes on the reigning AL batting champ, would Hoffman (closing in on the all-time saves record held by Lee Smith) throw an 86-MPH meatball? I blame Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann, who called for a fastball because he didn't feel that a changeup was the right pitch. After the game, Hoffman admitted that in a situation like that, you have to go with "your bread and butter" (AP).

Don't want to blame McCann? Think Hoffman should have shook off the 20something catcher? Hey, I agree. But ya gotta blame somebody, and I would hate it if I just went along with the crowd. So officially, I'm blaming McCann for last night's loss.

Thanks a lot, BRIAN.

The Beautiful Game

2006-06-16T17:01:00.000-04:00

It's hot (92 degrees in Chicago today). The preseason predictions are a distant memory (the Tigers are in first place). Your team is underachieving (pick one). Your favorite player is on the DL or forgot to show up this season (hello, Rich Harden, Mark Prior, and Mark Teixeira). This is the doldrums, the time of year when baseball seems to last forever. And while there's nothing wrong with that, sometimes I need a break.

Which is why I've been watching the World Cup and the NBA Finals, and not really paying much attention to baseball. Sure, I know the Mets are streaking and the rest of the NL East is sinking. I know Roger Clemens is going to be in the big leagues next week. I know Dmitri Young has a warrant out for his arrest, and that his brother Delmon's suspension is almost over. I know that Esteban Loaiza was caught driving 120 MPH while drunk, and BJ Upton was going 51 in a 30 MPH zone with a 0.11 BAC (the NC legal limit is 0.08). But the compelling drama of the World Cup and the NBA Finals is too great to ignore.

The US national team suffered an embarrassing loss to the Czech Republic and must defeat Italy tomorrow if it wants to keep playing. Dallas put up two quick victories against Miami and looked dominant, only to limp through two Miami wins thanks to an out-of-this-world Dwyane Wade (and an ice-cold Dirk Nowitzki).

I know baseball will be there for me when I get back, like a reliable friend. Because honestly, the World Cup happens once every four years, and beyond that, the NBA playoffs this year have been the best since some guy named Jordan was around. So take heart fans, the lull will not last. Before you know it, we'll be playing for home-field advantage in the World Series in the Midsummer Classic.

Rocket Man

2006-05-31T15:15:00.000-04:00

"Mars ain't the kind of place to raise your kids. In fact, it's cold as hell."

The Rocket Man, Roger Clemens, arguably the greatest living pitcher, has decided to "un-retire" (again) and rejoin the Houston Astros. He'll make a cool $22 million, prorated, after making three minor-league rehab starts in June. The Astros are banking on Clemens' presence launching them back into postseason contention. We'll see if Clemens can keep up his unhuman progression. At age 43, he defies every logical conclusion about pitchers, specifically power pitchers, that we've drawn over the past several decades.

Which is why I think this has all been a grand charade. When Michael Jordan "retired" in 1995 and pursued his "dream" of playing baseball, he was actually serving a "suspension" mandated by "league commissioner" David Stern who wanted to keep MJ's "severe gambling problem" under wraps. Isn't it at least responsible to ask ourselves, was Clemens juicing?

He's gained a significant amount of weight the past few years. Now that could be his metabolism slowing down. It could also be the fact that he's just a big guy, a power pitcher with huge legs and a large core. But if he were slowing down, would he win the Cy Young award in 2004 and the ERA title in 2005? Maybe, but maybe not.

I'm not saying that Roger Clemens is a juicer. But I'd be a fool if I didn't at least suspect something besides what I'm being told.

Rocky Mountain High

2006-05-29T10:34:00.000-04:00

-by Josh Dembowitz, Friday May 26, Cherry Hill, NJ

The Rockies have been perennial underachievers since their inaugural season. Only once have they made the playoffs. They have never won their division, and haven’t even mustered a finish above fourth place in the NL West since 1997. Their pitching has been atrocious, with only one season with an ERA under 5.00 (it was 4.97 in 1995). Every pitching acquisition has backfired, with the failed Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton experiments standing out.

The thin air at Coors has helped some hitters have amazing stats which they could never duplicate anywhere else (hello, Vinny Castilla and Dante Bichette). However, no matter how many sluggers the team has had, it has never been able to win on the road, and it has never been able to pitch. This year, thanks to an influx of youth and some good young pitching, the team is winning both at home and on the road, and should be in it for the long haul in the reborn NL West. The future is bright for this youthful squad.

Even this year, talk of the Rockies’ success must begin with their lineup. A quartet of players with no more than two seasons of experience is making up for the fact that Todd Helton is not the hitter he used to be, with his numbers steadily declining since 2003. The trend appears to be continuing this season, as Helton has just 3 homers and 16 RBI this season. Fortunately, other players have picked up the slack.

Pesky CF Cory Sullivan is not the prototypical Coors hitter (just one HR and 8 RBI), but he makes things happen and takes advantage of Coors’ wide gaps to hit doubles (14 so far) and triples (a league-leading six). Just as importantly, Sullivan provides solid defense, covering a lot of ground in the spacious outfield at Coors. Second-year 3B Garrett Atkins (26 years old) is developing into a solid power hitter from the No.2 slot in the order. RF Brad Hawpe is mashing the ball in his first full-time season in Colorado. Remarkably, he is hitting far better on the road (7-19, 1.109 OPS) than at home (3-11-.874), a benefit for a club where the majority of players produce far less on the road. Hawpe’s production away from Denver is a big reason why the Rockies have a respectable 12-12 road record.

For LF Matt Holliday, every day has felt like Christmas this season. He is on pace to continue to improve on his numbers each season. In just 182 ABs, he has already clubbed 11 homers and driven in 37 runs. If he gets 550 ABs, he should easily reach the 30-100 mark. This 26-year-old could be an All-Star for years to come.

Amazingly, there is more hitting help on the way. SS Troy Tulowitzki, the No. 7 pick in the 2005 draft, projects as a solid all-around player in the Bobby Crosby mold. He is hitting well at Double-A Tulsa, and could be a late-season call-up, especially if the struggles of Clint Barmes continue. If Tulowitzki continues to progress, he could be the starting SS in 2007. 1B Ryan Shealy is biding his time, his ascension blocked by Helton. He is a masher who could be traded, though. 3B Ian Stewart is the top prospect in the organization, a 21-year-old slugger who, while struggling this year at Tulsa, should be a top player in just a few years. His presence could force Atkins to either shift positions or be traded.

The team has some solid pitching prospects as well. Ubaldo Jimenez has struck out 47 batters in just 41.1 innings for Tulsa to go along with a 4-2 record. His teammate Juan Morillo has been even more impressive, with a 4-2 record, 3.14 ERA, and 42 Ks in 43 innings. The two of them should help the Rockies’ rotation in the not-so-distant future.

The Rockies’ pitching has been superb so far. Only one starter has an ERA above 4.35 (Jason Jennings), unheard of for a team which usually has five starters with at least 4.75 ERAs. The club is very high on 27-year-old righty Aaron Cook, whose 3.39 ERA shows his ability to induce ground balls, even at Coors. His style is perfect for Denver, as shown by his 2.88 home ERA. Lefty Jeff Francis, just 25 years old, was lit up last season (5.69 ERA), although he did have 14 wins. This season, his ERA is all the way down to 3.07, and he has pitched well both at home and on the road. He should anchor the staff for years to come.

The starters have been aided by the rock-solid bullpen. If the starters go six innings, the game is pretty much over. The club’s relievers have been unhittable, especially 24-year-old rookie Ramon Ramirez (1.40 ERA, just 10 HA in 19.1 IP). In addition, Jose Mesa, David Cortes, and Ray King have been solid. Closer Brian Fuentes came out of nowhere last season to earn an All-Star bid, and his deceptive delivery is befuddling hitters once more (1.37 ERA, 24 Ks in 19.2 IP). The bullpen has kept every game close, protecting leads and maintaining close deficits.

The names of the team’s pitchers may be underwhelming, but the numbers don’t lie. The staff finally has ground-ball pitchers whose sinkers are sinking in the thin air, and the results have been amazing. The staff has allowed 435 hits, 5th worst in the NL. However, they have given up just 195 runs, 4th best in the NL! The pitchers aren’t accomplishing this by striking out batters (they have the 4th-fewest Ks), but by inducing timely ground balls and keeping the ball out of the seats.

The two most telling figures which have defined this season are numbers which nobody would ever have expected from a Rockies staff, especially one without any top-notch starters. The numbers are: 4.21, as in the 5th-best ERA in the NL, almost a run better than last season; and 35, as in just 35 homers allowed, the lowest in the NL! If anyone had predicted this before the season, they would have been branded a complete idiot. However, it is this number that is keeping the Rockies in contention- by giving up far fewer long balls, the team is stranding more runners and giving up far fewer “big” innings.

The Rockies have exceeded expectations to this point, and they’ve been doing it in a very un-Rockie-like manner. Their offensive stats are quite unimpressive by Rockies standards, and make their surprising start that much more shocking. Currently, they are 13th in the NL in runs, 10th in homers, 13th in RBIs, and 12th in OBP. Yet they are still in contention at 25-22, just 2.5 games behind the division-leading Diamondbacks.

They are contending by pitching in the only manner possible at Coors: pitching to contact and inducing ground balls. This squad is winning far more close, low-scoring games than ever before. Either they are benefiting from good luck, or their new method of clutch hitting and solid, bend-but-don’t-break pitching is going to keep them in it for the long haul. Bet on the latter. The Rockies have what it takes both on the mound and at the plate to contend this year and for many years to come.

There's No Crying In Baseball!

2006-05-26T10:00:00.000-04:00

After a bizarre 8-5 win over the Houston Astros yesterday, Washington Nationals manager and Hall of Famer Frank Robinson was in tears at his postgame press conference. Why? He did something a manager is never supposed to do. He pulled his catcher, Matt LeCroy, in the middle of an inning. After the Astros went 7 for 7 in steal attempts, and after LeCroy air mailed two throws, Robinson pulled his emergency catcher and inserted his OTHER emergency catcher, Robert Fick. The Nationals' everyday catcher, Brian Schneider, returns from injury on Friday.

What did Robinson say after embarrassing a veteran in front of a home crowd? "At that moment I just felt like I had to do it" (AP). God bless Frank Robinson.

Quick Hits
-The Astros compiled seven stolen bases, the most in MLB since 2002.
-Houston "achieved" a dubious record on Thursday night, stealing the most bases in a loss thus far in 2006.
-Milestone achievement! This is the 100th post on Baseball Universe. Spread the word.
-The Royals hit back-to-back-to-back home runs off the Tigers in the first inning yesterday, and STILL lost, 13-8. The Royals' latest losing streak is 13 games. I'd say something here but...where to begin? I'll just let Royals manager Buddy Bell speak. "We've done this before. This isn't anything new. I don't know how many games during the stretch where we've done exactly what we did today" (AP). Pure gold, Buddy. Pure. Gold.

Sux In The City

2006-05-25T13:05:00.000-04:00

The Diamondbacks traded veteran starting pitcher Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez to the New York Mets in exchange for relief pitcher Jorge Julio. This trade will slightly strengthen the Mets' weak rotation, and will give Arizona a flamethrower out of their bullpen. Effectively, this trade means the Mets traded Kris Benson for Orlando Hernandez.

It's hard to get excited about this trade because it really doesn't mean that much. El Duque is a good bet to stand up to the New York pressure as he has done it many times before. But he has a long history of injury as well as being a difficult player to manage at times. The Mets certainly didn't have many options, but don't think that Omar Minaya is done tinkering. For one reason or another, the Mets gave up on Julio pretty quickly, despite him having a solid May.

With the amount of mileage the Mets are putting on their bullpen, you'd think they would try to get a pitcher while keeping their 'pen intact. Julio's departure, while not monumental, will place additional strain on Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman, and Billy Wagner, all of whom have already pitched a lot of innings.

In the end, this trade could work out better for Arizona as they strengthen their bullpen, call up a rookie pitcher to fill the No. 5 hole in their rotation, and shed a veteran who didn't belong in the Arizona youth movement. Of course, all the stories you've read today probably say how great this trade is for the Mets. Damn East Coast bias.

Roar of the Tiger

2006-05-23T11:26:00.000-04:00

We're past the point of the season where we dismiss certain phenomena as statistical flukes. With 25% of the season gone and the 33% mark fast approaching, the standings and the league leaders deserve some serious consideration. In that respect, I'd like to announce the return of the Detroit Tigers. The 1984 World Champs are officially back, and their perch atop the American League is not nearly as temporary of a position as most people think.

If baseball teaches us anything on a daily basis, it's that we know absolutely nothing. After all, the ball bounces where it wants to bounce (or where the Baseball Gods tell it to bounce, if you believe in that sort of thing). Every year, we're "surprised" by certain players or teams, but really, we just weren't paying close enough attention. Albert Pujols has 22 home runs this year, and it's not even June. Are people really that surprised Pujols would eventually do something like this?

If they are, they shouldn't be, and nobody should be surprised by a Detroit presence in the American League playoffs this year, either. The Tigers' AL Central roommate, the Chicago White Sox, "surprised" the baseball world last year and won the World Series. Was Chicago's championship run all that unpredictable? In 2004, the White Sox won 51.2% of their games (missing the playoffs), scoring 865 runs and allowing 831. Their team ERA was 4.91 and the team WHIP was 1.42. The offense provided 242 home runs, a .333 OBP, and a .457 slugging percentage.

Fast forward to 2005, when the White Sox won 61.1% of their games, scored 741 runs, and allowed 645 runs. That White Sox team had an ERA of 3.61 and a team WHIP of 1.25. The offense provided 200 home runs, a .322 OBP, and a .425 slugging percentage. The change from the end of 2004 to the end of 2005: W-L %, 19.2%; RS, -14.3%; RA, -22.4%; ERA, -26.5%; WHIP, -11.6%. HR, -17.4%, OBP -3.3%, SLG -7%. So clearly, the White Sox won with pitching, pitching, pitching. The decrease in runs and home runs isn't a good thing, but that didn't seem to stop their stable of aces from running wild on the Red Sox, Angels, and Astros.

Now on to the subject, the Detroit Tigers. In 2005, the Tiggers won 43.8% of their games, scoring 723 runs and allowing 787. The team ERA was 4.51 with a WHIP of 1.37. The offense slugged .428 with a .321 OBP, hitting 168 home runs. Now of course, we can't do a direct comparison of the White Sox and Tigers because the 2006 Tigers (as of Sunday May 21) have played 42 games. But the sample size (26%) is large enough, and by utilizing the Pythagorean W-L calculation, we can guesstimate the 2006 Tigers' end result with pretty reliable accuracy. The ERA and WHIP may not stay where they are, but they shouldn't deviate too far either.

So far in 2006, the Tigers have won 66.7% of their games, scoring 209 runs and allowing 149 runs (that's the best run differential in MLB). The team ERA is 3.34 and the team WHIP is 1.21. The team has already hit 62 home runs and sports a .333 OBP and a .475 slugging percentage. Projected over a 162-game season, the Tigers will score 806 runs and give up 575 runs while hitting 239 home runs. Their Pythagorean W-L% will be 65.0%. Again, these are estimates based on 42 games, but they aren't baseless. Let's look at the delta.

The Tigers change in W-L% from 2005 would be 48.3%. Their runs scored would increase by 11.5% while their runs allowed would decrease by 27.0%. The team ERA would drop by 25.9% and the team WHIP would drop by 11.6%. The team would hit 42.3% more home runs, increase OBP by 3.7%, and increase SLG by 11.0%. Looking back on the 2005 White Sox, they decreased their runs allowed by 22.4%, ERA by 26.5%, and WHIP by 11.6%.

Will the Tigers win 105 games? Probably not. But they should win 95 games and take one of the two playoff spots available to them. The year-over-year change in their projected numbers, particularly RA, ERA, and WHIP are strikingly similar to last year's World Champs. The Tigers roar once more.

For Whom the Belle Tolls

2006-05-18T17:54:00.000-04:00

Jeez. It must be Troubled Slugger day or something. Apparently, Albert Belle has been stalking his ex-girlfriend. But it isn't your typical stalk, oh no, this is a former baseball player stalk. Wanna know how Belle was caught (again)? The GPS device he had surreptitiously attached to the woman's car fell off. Some guys just can't take a hint, huh?

Young Again

2006-05-18T17:15:00.000-04:00

Perhaps I spoke too soon in defending Mr. Delmon Young. It appears the family members have a slight anger management problem. Sorry. ALLEGED anger management problem. Here's hoping that Delmon learns a lesson from his big brother and keeps his hands inside the hitting zone and away from people's necks. Oh wait, Dmitri hasn't kept his hands in the hitting zone since 2003. Ouch.

Family Matters

2006-05-12T10:10:00.000-04:00

Unless you've been on sabbatical and just returned, you've seen the Delmon Young video footage. So I won't waste your time with a recap. Earlier this week, Delmon Young was suspended for 50 games, without pay, by the AAA-level International League, the longest suspension in that league's history. So far, Young and Devil Rays Executive VP of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman have been saying all the right things, being conciliatory and remorseful, and trying to put a positive spin on the lesson Young has learned. Young's older brother Dmitri, a Detroit Tigers first baseman, is singing a slightly different tune.

Older brother Dmitri (left) is concerned about the perception of younger brother Delmon (right).

Dmitri's concern is that his younger brother won't be given a chance to emerge from the dark shadow of his temper. It's a legitimate concern, and one that needed to be voiced amidst a cacophony of brow-beating and heavy-handed reprimanding by pretty much every baseball writer in America. Of course, Delmon Young made a huge mistake when he let his anger get the better of him. But to this point he's said he's sorry, his words seem to be truly heartfelt, and he's going to pay his penalty. He's going to serve his suspension, do his community service, and take some time away from the game.

I don't know how much more we can ask of Delmon Young, and I think his older brother is on to something. Too often we allow one event to characterize our perception of these athletes. Compounding this problem is the fact that 99% of us will never have the chance to get to know any of these athletes through anything more than Sportscenter. Knowing this, the ballplayers and their handlers often erect a wall to keep our slings and arrows away. For a player as young and as talented as Delmon Young is, it would be a shame for this one event to haunt him for the rest of his career.

What Delmon Young did was completely wrong, and indefensible. The video footage, no matter how many times you watch it, doesn't seem quite real. But now that the ordeal is over, now that Young's penalty has been handed down and he's apologized, the only rational thing for us to do as baseball fans is to hope that he really has learned his lesson, and to await his arrival on the Big League stage. Because after all, it's just a game.

We're Going Streaking!

2006-05-10T10:34:00.000-04:00

Last night, we all witnessed Barry Bonds make history as he crushed home run #714 into the San Francisco night.....oh, wait. Juan Pierre spoiled the evening for Bay Area residents by snagging the fly ball just at the top of the eight-foot wall in center field. Oh well, history will have to wait at least one more day.

Or will it? After beating the first-place Mets last night on Aaron Heilman's throwing error, those white-hot Philadelphia Phillies extended their winning streak to nine games and are now on the verge of a historic day. In the franchise's long, beleaguered 123-year history, the team has won nine or more games in a row just eight times. But a winning streak of 10 games or more? That's happened just six times in the franchise's history. And I'm betting you want to know when.

The Phillies sported the old "P" the last time a winning streak longer than 9 games took them to the October stage.

Using the baseball-reference.com streak analyzer (see link in title), I was able to organize the Phillies' winning streaks since 1901. Besides 2006, the other two seasons in which the Phils won nine in a row were 1905 and 1969. Must have been two great seasons of Phillies baseball, right? How about 83-69 for a 4th place finish in 1905, and 63-99 for a 5th place finish in 1969. Yuck.

The Phillies had winning streaks of 10 games in a row, in 1901 and 1984. Alas, no magic touch there, as the 1901 Phillies finished 83-57 and in 2nd place. Those 1984 Phillies, following up a disappointing loss to Cal Ripken's Orioles in the 1983 World Series? They finished 81-81, in 4th place despite the streak. So, what do the Phillies have to do to maintain some kind of positive momentum throughout a season?

Try winning 11 games in a row. That's happened just twice, in 1955 and in 1983. The 1955 Phillies, however, finished 71-83 and in 5th place. And let's not rehash the heartbreak of the 1983 team, which finished 90-72 to win the NL East title. That World Series was the year of Ripken's first and only title.

So, do long winning streaks ever really amount to anything for this franchise? Well, the Phillies have never had a 12-game winning streak. But they have had two seasons in which they won 13 games in a row. The 1977 Philadelphia Phillies, who eventually lost the NLCS to the Los Angeles Dodgers, finished 101-61. The 1991 Phillies, however, limped to a 78-84 finish in spite of their 13-game streak. They finished in 3rd place.

The conclusion I've drawn from the available data is that winning streaks don't mean anything to the Phillies, except that sometimes a long winning streak indicates a team just good enough to make the World Series but not good enough to win the thing. More often than not, a long Phillies winning streak is a mirage in the desert of yet another mediocre, 3rd to 5th place finish. But this year could be different, could be the first year wearing the new uniforms (that they've been wearing for over a decade now) that the Phillies actually make the playoffs. It would be just the 10th playoff appearance in the franchise's 123-year history.

Boo-Birds, Awake!

2006-05-05T13:41:00.000-04:00

As a Philadelphia native, I feel like I can speak for my city when I say that as a Philadelphian, it is my God-given right to boo my heart out. Not just boo, but boo lustily, proudly, and loudly. What better chance to boo than this weekend's series between the Phillies and San Francisco Giants at Citizens Bank Park? Baseball's most hated icon, Barry Bonds, struts into town for a three-game tilt (apparently, the rest of the Giants are coming too).

Philly fans have had bigger villains than Bonds in their midst...will Barry be able to withstand the heat?

Not only is the hated Barry Bonds in town, (boo!) but he is on the verge of tying Babe Ruth's career home run total. Major League Baseball might tell you that this isn't "really" a record, but anyone with a pulse knows that only three men in baseball history have hit 700 home runs. And only two of those men did it legitimately. So it's a pretty big deal that Bonds is sitting at 712 homers and is entering a three-game series at one of baseball's most notorious hitter's parks.

It's also a big deal that the idea of Ruth is once again being passed by. When Hank Aaron passed Ruth, it actually meant something. Aaron was the legitimate successor to Ruth as baseball's slugging king. Aaron strung together a career of steady performance, never wavering, and never hitting more than 47 home runs in a season. His conquest of Ruth was real, complete, and most importantly, accepted by the public. The incredulity of diehard baseball purists and racists that was displayed after Aaron's record-breaking home run in Atlanta only goes to prove the point that Aaron's accomplishment was indeed real. Only the idiots refused to accept Aaron's record as the gold standard.

I can't be in Philadelphia this weekend, but if I could be, I'd be in my customary left-field bleachers spot, booing Bonds as I have since the early 1990s at Veterans Stadium. Phillies pitcher Cory Lidle, a fan of the game himself, would probably join me, based on his comments yesterday: "'It's sad,' Lidle told the Philadelphia Daily News. 'I'm not a player-hater. I like to see players get paid as much as they can. But without friggin' cheating. What he could have done without performance-enhancing drugs-which he hasn't been proven guilty of [using], which I'm not buying-you can maybe take what he had done in his prime, before his head started growing at an enormous rate, and just make those projections. Say that, 'This is what he could have done.' Maybe it's 550 home runs. I don't know. It definitely wouldn't have been anything close to 700.'"

Will Barry Bonds' 715th home run actually mean anything? Not to me it won't. I suppose booing Bonds gives his pursuit some legitimacy. Ah, the hypocrisies of being a sports fan. At some point, Major League Baseball is going to have to address the cry of the fans across the nation. That probably won't happen until after Bonds is retired. Until then, Philly fans and baseball fans everywhere....boo your hearts out.

Playin' The Feud!

2006-05-03T10:00:00.000-04:00

The A's-Angels matchup in Anaheim last night got ugly in the sixth inning, when John Lackey and Jason Kendall set off a donnybrook. Kendall, he of the career 201 HBPs, and of the massive left elbow guard, has been known throughout his decade-long big league career to lean out over the plate. 2002 World Series Game 7 winner John Lackey knows this all too well, and in the sixth inning last night, their worlds collided.

"You son of a bitch, turn around and ask me for heifer with cheese, yo!"

In the top of the sixth, Lackey's first pitch to Kendall was a breaking ball inside, and Kendall took issue with the pitch location. The pitch location was hardly questionable, but apparently Lackey had choice words that Kendall couldn't ignore: "I was looking for a fastball down and away because he started me off like that the first two at-bats. Then certain things were said. I can't repeat it, but I'm not going to let anybody talk to me like that."

Call it two immovable objects heading toward each other; call it childish; but don't call it a waste. This fight signals the beginning of the real baseball season, when pennant races begin to take shape, and rivalries are defined. Think John Lackey won't remember last night when September comes around? Think again: "It's intense out there. I don't think a lot of people really know how intense it is. But it happened and it's over with" (Jason Kendall, courtesy of ESPN.com -- see link above).

Bonds Watch

2006-04-26T10:16:00.000-04:00

Last night in San Francisco, Barry Bonds hit career home run #710, courtesy of Steve Trachsel. For those of you who didn't get a chance to see the video footage of Bonds' home run, try to catch the highlight shows today. Bonds was hobbling badly as he circled the bases, and had to make a concerted effort just to make the 360-foot trip. If any of my readers know this (I hope some of you do), Babe Ruth was similarly impaired during the twilight of his career. As a member of the Boston Braves, Ruth struggled mightily on the basepaths and was often replaced by a pinch-runner if he put the ball in fair play.

I've already given my two cents on Barry Bonds' chase of Ruth. Check out the archives for "Deconstructing Barry." If you want another informed, intelligent response to Bonds' quest to take down Ruth, pick up an ESPN the Magazine and read Chuck Klosterman (Barry Bonds bobblehead doll on the cover). Great prose, insightful, and downright irreverent.

Cheezborger, Cheezborger, Cheezborger

2006-04-21T15:04:00.000-04:00

The Curse of the Billy Goat hath returned, and its head is uglier than ever. Less than two weeks after signing a 5-year contract extension worth $13 million in average annual salary, Derrek Lee has sustained a rather unfortunate injury. After standing his ground during a collision at first base with Dodgers SS Rafael Furcal, Lee will go on the disabled list with a broken wrist. According to the Chicago Tribune (see link above), Lee "suffered fractures of the distal radial bone and the distal ulna bone while trying to brace himself for the impact with Furcal, who was charging toward the bag while beating out a bunt."

The Cubs will place Lee on the 15-day DL today. Lee will wear a cast for six weeks and is expected to miss at least eight weeks, if not ten. Cubs fans, don't despair...the NL Central is weak this year, and the Cubs have two fantastic starting pitchers in Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux. Although it's typical for Wrigleyville to spiral into depression when something like this happens, the season is very young, and the Cubs have a much more well-rounded team this year than last year.

However. Lee's absence will make a profound impact on the Cubs' lineup, and may even force GM Jim Hendry's hand before the trading deadline. The Cubs will not survive with John Mabry/Todd Walker playing at the 1B spot.

Quick Hits
-Diamondbacks prospect Justin Upton makes his professional debut today for low Class A South Bend, 102 years to the day after Ty Cobb made his pro debut with Augusta of the South Atlantic League. Upton, the younger brother of Devil Rays prospect B.J. Upton, will debut as a centerfielder instead of his natural position at shortstop. It's more than just speculation to assume that Upton will be groomed as the centerfielder of the future so that Stephen Drew, younger brother of Dodger star J.D., can become the Snakes' shortstop.

Wondering about Chris Young, the minor-league outfielder who came over from the White Sox in the Vazquez trade? He can play left, center, or right field without a problem. When Young, Upton, and Drew make it to the big leagues, alongside budding stars Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy, the Diamondbacks will have some serious bite.

Mirror Image?

2006-04-18T13:05:00.000-04:00

Last week’s “What’s In A Name?” post received a comment that I couldn’t ignore: “Since when are Ortiz and Lee worth the same amount of money?Ortiz is worth far more than 13 mill. a year.” I started to post a comment in reply, but then realized the size of the can of worms I had just opened.

The second statement, regarding Ortiz’s value, is easier to address. Ortiz took a “hometown” discount to stay with Boston. Ditto for Lee in Chicago. If either had chosen to pursue free agency, he would certainly sign for more than $13 million average annual salary. But nobody would pay him $18 million in this current market. There are many indications - the topic of a completely separate post for the future - that the 2006 offseason is going to bring salary inflation to a whole ‘nother level.

The 2006 payroll numbers show the Red Sox at roughly $120 million and the Cubs at roughly $94 million. Keeping in mind that the Cubs share their city with another team, you’d think their payroll is high. Nope. The Tribune Company should be spending a lot more money on the club, and perhaps Lee’s signing is a commitment to that end. But don’t blame the Red Sox for spending $120 million when the Cubs should be spending the same.

I'm talkin' with the man in the mirror...

“Since when are Ortiz and Lee worth the same amount of money?”

Without looking at the numbers, we know that David Ortiz is much better than Derrek Lee as a postseason performer. Ortiz isn’t just perceived as clutch. He IS clutch. And it’s likely that it can’t be measured, despite Sir Neyer’s best attempts. Lee is vastly superior at 1B, winning a Gold Glove twice; Ortiz rarely plays 1B at all and is below average as a fielder when he does. What do the numbers say?

David Ortiz, BOS, DH
For three straight years Ortiz has finished in the top 5 in MVP voting, finishing fifth in 2003, fourth in 2004, and second in 2005. More importantly, Ortiz owns a trophy that says “2004 ALCS MVP.” Ortiz was an All-Star in 2004 and 2005, and won the Silver Slugger award in those years as well. Big Papi led the AL in XBH in 2004 and 2005, and also led the AL in RBI 2005. His 2005 salary was $5.25 million.

Derrek Lee, CHC, 1B
Lee has finished in the top 5 in MVP voting once (2005). Lee has a batting title from 2005, as well as an All Star appearance and a Silver Slugger award (all are first-time awards). In 2005, Lee led the NL in SLG and OPS as well as AVG, H, TB, 2B, RC, and XBH. His 2005 salary was $7.66 million.

League, Team, and Age Factors

Lee has played his entire career in the NL with Florida and the Cubs. Ortiz has played his entire career in the AL with Minnesota and Boston. Both players established their values with their second teams, in the first year with that team (Lee in 2004, Ortiz in 2003). Both players have played nine seasons (through 2005), and both players were age 29 during the 2005 season.

Postseason Factor

The numbers say Ortiz is the far superior player in the postseason, and I won’t argue with that at all. However. Six of Ortiz’s eight postseason series have come with Boston. Lee played three series, all in 2003 with the Marlins World Champion team. Ortiz had 2002 to warm up, right? Actually he batted .276 compared to Lee batting .208 in 2003. But the “new” Derrek Lee - the one who drives in 100 runs - showed up in 2004, Lee’s first year with the club. If the Cubs could make the postseason, there’s no telling what kind of damage Lee would do in the Friendly Confines. He could become as dominant Ortiz. Lee’s career numbers and his recent surge to a higher plane do indicate that he would do better in the future than he did in October 2003.

DH Factor

You can’t blame either team for the rules applied to them by their respective leagues. It’s unfair to discount Ortiz’s contribution because he doesn’t play a “real” position; by the same token it’s unfair to forget about defense. Lee is the best defensive first baseman in the National League. If Ortiz were as good defensively as he is offensively, he’d be the Boston first baseman everyday. But he’s not. And if he had played in the National League instead of the American, there’s no telling if he would have been able to explode into the Big Scary Monster (“BSM”) (credit to Rob Neyer) that he is today.

Conclusion

All things considered, it appears that David Ortiz is worth $13 million average annual salary in the AL, and that Derrek Lee is worth $13 million average annual salary in the NL. But that doesn’t mean that the two players are equal. Despite having 975 more career at-bats than Ortiz, Derrek Lee has hit just 31 more home runs and just 17 more doubles. Additionally, the two players have the same exact RBI output (626) despite Lee’s additional at-bats. Ortiz has a career OPS of .900, while Lee’s career OPS is .864. Ortiz’s career average is .282 compared to Lee’s .276. On the other hand, Lee does have those two Gold Gloves.

Ortiz has a better AB/HR ratio than Lee (17.56 to Lee’s 19.63); a better AB/K ratio (4.58 to 4.1); a better AR/RBI ratio (5 to 6.5); a better AB/BB ratio (7.38 to 7.78); and a slightly better AB/H ratio (3.5 to 3.6). Therefore, the data indicate Ortiz is the superior offensive player. Based on the information we’ve uncovered, Boston looks smart by locking up their BSM at below market value. Chicago also looks smart now, but they probably should have waited for Lee to establish a consistent status as one of the game’s elite hitters. If Lee’s production returns to his career averages, as opposed to producing numbers similar to 2005, we will be saying that the Cubs overpaid Lee.

Happy Holidays!

2006-04-14T13:19:00.000-04:00

I'm preparing a response to a comment posted the other day. Are Derrek Lee and David Ortiz worth the same amount of money? The data, and the answers, might surprise you. Until then, I wish everyone a Happy Passover or Easter, and failing that, enjoy your non-denominational three-day weekend. Talk to you Monday.

What's In A Name?

2006-04-11T10:02:00.000-04:00

-by Josh Dembowitz

We baseball fans are constantly learning the names of more and more players, names which seem to grow stranger by the day. Displayed below is a lineup of the funniest names in baseball, and while they may not win too many games, they’ll keep the fans amused. Feel free to chime in with your favorite name, or great names that I managed to overlook.

C: Wiki Gonzalez - C’mon. WIKI? That’s what I call child abuse.
1B: Prince Fielder - He is definitely not a prince with the glove, and I don’t know too many princes who weigh as much as he does.
2B: Jorge Cantu - Every time I hear the name, I flash back to childhood arguments: “Cannot!” “CAN-TU!!”
SS: Hanley Ramirez - Every time I read about him, I wonder whether his parents really meant to name him after Manny but the name was somehow mangled.
3B: Chone Figgins - If anyone can come up with a weirder way to spell Shawn, please inform me.

There are so many great outfielder names, that I will modify the rules and allow for an extra guy.

OF: Milton Bradley - Had his parents ever played a board game in their lives, or did they think they’d be cute by giving him this name? Bradley’s horrendous behavior is a way of getting back at society.
OF: Choo Freeman - What hits you first with him- “Achoo!” or “Choo Choo!?”
OF: Coco Crisp - No, this is not his real name, but this may be the first time in history that a player shares a name with a cereal.
OF: Terrmel Sledge - May be the best combination of first and last names- ever.

SP: Dewon Brazelton - Adam is probably this guy’s biggest fan. A name like this makes you pull for the guy, although he was rocked in his last start (9 ER in 2.1 IP).
SP: Gustavo Chacin - As radio hosts on WFAN 590 Toronto remarked, his name sounds like cologne. Apparently, someone out there was listening: on June 27, the team will pass out 10,000 samples of the all new fragrance on Chacin Cologne Night.
SP: Mark Buehrle - It would be a lot funnier if he was fat.
SP: Tomokazhu Ohka - An all-around fun name.
RP: Tanyon Sturtze - Where to begin?
RP: J.J. Putz - Someone in his family should have spared everyone else from years of verbal abuse, and changed their last name when they got to America.
RP: Yhency Brazoban - He must have the most Scrabble value of any ballplayer ever.
RP: Chin-Hui-Tsao - Either a food dish or a karate discipline.
RP: Jimmy Gobble - Yearnings for Thanksgiving dinner every time I hear his name.
Closer: Ambiorix Burgos - I stay away from discussing the Royals, perpetually fearful that I will have to attempt to pronounce this guy’s name.

Honorable Mention: Rod Barajas, Hee Seop Choi, Doug Mientciewicz, Nick Swisher, Trot Nixon, Maicer Izturis, Marco Scutaro, Alfredo Amezaga, Edwin Encarnacion, Kevin Mench, Nick Markakis, Nook Logan, So Taguchi, Skip Schumaker, John Halama, Braden Looper, Sendy Rleal (looks like a typo, but it isn’t!), Takashi Saito, Bronson Arroyo.

Quick Hits

-Chicago Cubs 1B Derrek Lee signed a 5-year, $65 million contract extension on Monday, keeping him at Clark & Addison through 2010. The deal makes Lee the highest paid player on the North Side; ChiSox slugger Jim Thome remains Chicago's highest-paid athlete at over $14 million annually.

-Boston Red Sox DH/1B David Ortiz signed a 4-year, $52 million contract extension on Monday, securing his spot at Fenway until 2010, with a team option for 2011. According to the Winnipeg Sun, Ortiz had this to say: "I want to finish my career as a Red Sox player," Ortiz said at a news conference at Fenway Park. "I'm going to be around for a while. I'm pretty sure New England is going to take this as good news." Of note, Ortiz's deal is for the same amount of money as Johnny Damon's. Hmmm.

Clemens Watch

2006-04-10T15:59:00.000-04:00

In an ESPN.com chat with Buster Olney today, I heard a dirty little rumor about Roger Clemens. While Olney (and all ESPN employees) toes the company line and asserts that Clemens will either retire or re-sign with Houston, there are persistent rumors that indicate otherwise. According to a source who knows Clemens personally, the split-finger fastball artist is likely to sign with either Boston or the Yankees.

Quick Hits

-Also overheard in that chat was a rumor involving the Red Sox trading pitching prospect Jon Lester to the Florida Marlins for LHP Dontrelle Willis. I don't think there's any truth to that rumor; but rumors do start somewhere.

-The Tigers just lost to the White Sox, 5-3, with first week MVP Chris Shelton driving in one run. Enjoy tonight's games.

Break Up The Tigers!

2006-04-07T12:04:00.000-04:00

In two consecutive days (Wednesday and Thursday) against the Texas Rangers, the Detroit Tigers mashed 12 home runs. After three games (on the road, no less) in this nascent 2006 season, the Tigers are the only undefeated club on the Junior Circuit. The Tiggers lead the AL in runs scored and in runs allowed. Who knew, right?

Current team leaders (statistically) include talented youngster Chris Shelton, budding ace Jeremy Bonderman, and the ageless Ivan Rodriguez. Shelton is hitting .692 with a 2.407 OPS. OK, OK, so it's only been three games.

Welcome back, folks! This is what baseball is all about. Enjoy the weekend games, with the only nationally televised game being the Cards and Cubs facing off on ESPN Sunday night at 7:05 PM central time.

Yankees Win '06 Title! Steinbrenner Uses Gold Flakes for Ticker Tape Parade

2006-04-03T13:30:00.000-04:00

With one game already completed, it's safe to say that the New York Yankees will win the 2006 World Series. It's stupid NOT to pick them. Their offense, comprised mostly of former All-Stars who are past their prime, will surely be the most prolific in baseball history. Their pitching, comprised mostly of former All-Stars who are past their prime and journeyman who never had a prime, will surely not be a determining factor in the race for the pennant. It's not like recent history has shown us the profound importance of pitching in a playoff series.

Why even play the season? The Yankees DESERVE to win. Hell, they haven't won a World Series since Clinton was in office. So raise your cups in celebration, and toast to the health of the Kings of New York, the New York Yankees, your 2006 World Series Champions.

Talkin' 'Bout My Best Friend

2006-03-31T10:38:00.000-05:00

Friends and dear readers, if you have stayed with me, I appreciate it. This month has been the worst I've had in years, and I wasn't really that motivated to post as I recover from a family tragedy. I also know that it will take me a while to get my readership back. With that in mind I am taking a bit of a different direction with the blog, focusing less on stats and more on having fun. And now, our feature presentation.

After a recent media crush and the release of two books concerning Barry Bonds' use of performance-enhancers, the MLB bigwigs have announced their investigation into past "alleged steroid use" in baseball. While they do that, I'm going to the Galapagos Islands to investigate "alleged evolution" and my brother Josh is going to Old City Philadelphia to investigage the "alleged Continental Congress."

I know, I know. Things look bad right now. The commissioner of the sport is clearly a tool. The owners haven't displayed much intelligence. Meanwhile, the vast majority of the players have been asking for stricter testing and rules regarding performance-enhancers. However, this is the last weekend without baseball for seven months. Take a deep breath before the plunge.

Welcome Back

2006-03-23T10:17:00.000-05:00

After an unfortunate absence due to a death in my family, I have returned to Baseball Universe. Due to time constraints I will not be able to finish the team previews. I appreciate everyone who reads the site and remember that I will be posting regularly throughout the season.

Stay With Me

2006-03-08T09:07:00.000-05:00

Due to pressing family concerns I won't be able to maintain the site this week. I appreciate everyone who comes to read, and please, keep coming back for the rest of the AL previews next week.

Fantasy Baseball 2006

2006-03-06T11:30:00.000-05:00

I didn't get a chance to write the Tigers team preview yet, because I had my fantasy baseball draft last night. All you Tigers fans, look for your team preview tomorrow. My Yahoo league uses a head-to-head format with 12 managers and gives equal weight to pitching and batting categories (12 total). Of note, we track losses for pitchers and use SLG and OBP instead of AVG.

Anyway, some highlights and lowlights of the draft: David Wright fell to #17, while Andruw Jones went #5. Felix Hernandez went early, at #25. I managed to snag Prince Fielder in the 13th round (147th overall). Justin Mourneau was a steal in the 16th round (I opted for Bengie Molina). Kerry Wood, once a top-flight starter, fell all the way to the 17th round. My first ten picks:

OF Vladimir Guerrero
OF Ichiro Suzuki
SP Roy Halladay
SS Jimmy Rollins
RP Brad Lidge
2B/3B Jorge Cantu
3B Hank Blalock
SP Brandon Webb
RP Mike Gonzalez
SP Noah Lowry

I feel good about my team so far, especially getting those top 6 guys in that order. Hopefully everyone is going to have an enjoyable start to the fantasy baseball season, and remember, look for the Tigers preview tomorrow. Happy Monday!

2006 Team Preview: Minnesota Twins

2006-03-03T15:30:00.000-05:00

Power Outage

After capturing three consecutive AL Central crowns from 2002-2004, the Minnesota Twins scratched out 83 wins and missed the playoffs in 2005. Their run production fell from 780 to 688, and despite a team ERA of 3.71, the Twins finished third behind Chicago and Cleveland. Unlike the AL East teams, Minnesota's problem wasn't (isn't) its pitching:

Twins 2005 Ranks (AL only)
Runs: 14th
Hits: 13th
2Bs: 12th
HRs: 12th
BB: 7th
K: 10th
AVG: 13th
OBP: 10th
SLG: 13th

That doesn't look like an offense you can take to the bank. Nobody on the team slugged .500. Jacque Jones, now of the Chicago Cubs, led the team with 23 home runs. Justin Mourneau, who was expected to break out, instead broke down, and finished with a disappointing .239/.304/.437. The Twins could have been making up ground as the White Sox sputtered down the stretch, but ended up licking their injury wounds. Similar to Boston, it's hard to picture the 2006 version of this team facing as great of an injury problem as was encountered in 2005.

The Twins have an uphill battle in what will be a tight AL Central race.

Lineup: There's more hope than substance to this lineup; more potential than production. For the Twins to have a fighting chance, they need breakout or career years from several key players. Will they surprise the baseball world and compete with the mighty Sox for the division title?

1. LF Shannon Stewart - He has blossomed since leaving Toronto, becoming a leader both on and off the field. Unfortunately, his game hasn't improved as much as his character has. Because Minnesota's offense is based on moving over the runner, Stewart is critical to the success of the franchise in 2006. Therefore a repeat of his disappointing 2005 campaign (.274/.323/.388) would be disastrous. A return to his career averages of .300/.364/.411 would help this team immeasurably.
2. 2B Luis Castillo - He hasn't stolen 40+ bases since 2002. However, he finished 2005 with .301/.391/.374 and a .988 fielding percentage. If he can stay healthy enough to get 500 ABs, and if he can score 100 runs, the Twins will make a lot of people look foolish for doubting the Castillo trade.
3. C Joe Mauer - The Golden Boy better have a golden year for the Twinkies.

Now let's get something straight here - the expectations on young players today are enormous, and Mauer is barely old enough to get served at a bar. He'll get there, wherever there is; it's just a matter of when. For a lot of reasons, including 24-hour news, the internet, fantasy sports, more teams, and multi-million dollar draft picks, fans today see a good young player and hear some hype, and they expect an All-Star performance every year. But baseball players are regular human beings, who get hurt and sick and sometimes don't want to go to work, and the season is a grueling eight months long. Over a fifteen-year career, which is a close estimate of what you'd expect from a consistently good player, any person is going to get hurt and miss some serious time. Cal Ripken, Lou Gehrig, those guys are the exception that proves the rule.

Anyway. If he can improve his stats against left-handed pitching, and if his knee holds up, Mauer could have a breakout season and lead the Twins' offense. He's capable of hitting .300 or better, with an OPS of .800 or better. If Mauer can put that kind of a season together, the Twins will experience a ripple effect throughout the lineup that will place less pressure on the hitters further down in the order.

4. DH Rondell White - Oh he can hit, he can sure hit, but he cannot stay healthy. In 13 big-league seasons, White has managed to play in 120 or more games just six times. His career averages of .289/.343/.472 are good, but he's clearly outclassed by the other cleanup hitters in this division race (Konerko, Hafner). His career high of 28 home runs came in 1997; does White still have that power in his bat, and if so, can he evade the injury bug? It's a question that will bear watching throughout the season.
5. CF Torii Hunter - Hunter reigns supreme amongst AL centerfielders, though Vernon Wells is gaining. Spiderman has won five consecutive AL Gold Gloves, and is playing out the final year of his contract. In 2005, he reached a career high in OBP with .337, and also matched his career high in stolen bases with 23, despite having only 372 at bats. Hunter's going to need a monster season for the Twins to contend (and for him to get a rich deal in the offseason). When Hunter went down with a season-ending ankle injury right before the trading deadline, the Twins' playoff chase went down with him. But Hunter can't be the team leader offensively, unless the Twins plan on finishing in third place. This team will succeed only if they get above-average contributions from their entire lineup, no matter how well Hunter plays.
6. 1B Justin Mourneau - This could be the year for Mourneau, provided he can hit a changeup. Expectations for him are still high despite his struggle through injuries and consistency after the hype machine was in high gear before the 2005 season. Mourneau did have a bit of a resurgence toward the end of the year, waiting on pitches more than he had been previously. If the Twins have any hope of contending in a stacked AL Central (and the AL overall is clearly the superior league), they need Mourneau to carry them through the summer. 30-120-.300/.345/.550 is what the Twins need, but will the young first baseman be prepared to deliver? By hitting sixth, Mourneau will be under less pressure and may reach the production that we expected before last season.
7. 3B Tony Batista - Last season in Japan, Batista hit 27 HRs and had 90 RBIs with a .263 average for Fukuoka. If he can reproduce those numbers, the Twins should be thrilled. Batista's home run totals from the last seven seasons would have led the squad in all but one of those years. He could make a major comeback (and improve on his one-year, $1.25 million deal) by re-establishing his value as a power threat. All reports out of Twins camp indicate Batista is healthy and motivated, despite a lot of doubts about his remaining ability.
8. RF Lew Ford - Little Lew led the squad's regulars in OPS in 2004 with .827, but dropped to .716 in 2005. Ford's contribution to the team, however, can't really be measured in stats. He provides grit, hustle, and energy to a team that really lacks an identity outside of "that team that has Santana." Your classic dirt dog, Ford can play multiple positions and does it with a smile on his face. For the Twins to outperform their 2005 season, they cannot rely on Ford to lead the team in OPS. They will be counting on his defense, but not much else. Ford's career numbers of .285/.363/.424 are above average for a number 8 hitter.
9. SS Jason Bartlett - The Mountain View, CA native will be playing his first full big-league season in 2006, after registering 224 ABs in his rookie year in 2005. He's weak against right-handed pitching, hitting just .226 with a .603 OPS (as opposed to his stats against lefties: .277/.766). His slap-hitting style is a perfect fit at the bottom of the order, hopefully setting up Shannon Stewart for some RBIs. The Twins think Bartlett is their shortstop for the next several years, and 2006 is his chance to start proving them right.

If Mauer, Mourneau, and Hunter can approximate the output of David Ortiz/Manny Ramirez (80 HRs, 280 RBIs), the Twins will be in the middle of a heated battle in the Central. In the name of full disclosure, if the Twins' offense wakes up this year, they are going to be tough to beat and will contend for the division crown. It's impossible to go against the defending champs and their rotation; however, assuming Minnesota and Cleveland play to their ability levels, the AL could have three divisions with three-team pennant races heading into September.

Bench: IF Nick Punto, IF Michael Cuddyer, IF Juan Castro, IF Luis Rodriguez, C Mike Redmond, C Chris Heintz, OF Jason Kubel, DH Ruben Sierra. Both Cuddyer and Kubel will get a ton of at-bats off the bench during off days or injury time, and both could make a strong case for a spot in the starting lineup. If Batista falters at third base, Cuddyer will slide right back into the starting lineup. The options Ron Gardenhire has on his bench makes Minnesota one of the AL's deepest all-around teams.

Pitching: The rotation is often overlooked, with Chicago getting most of the attention in the division, but don't look past the Twins. Their team ERA of 3.71 was fifth in the AL, and they led the league in walks allowed (that's a good thing) with 348 BBs in 1464.3 innings pitched. Plus, I hear they have some guy named Santana.
Starters: The top starter in the league may be on the brink of a miraculous season.

1. Johan Santana - To say that Santana is the best pitcher in baseball doesn't do him justice. He is far and away the best pitcher in baseball, and could be getting even better. His 2.87 ERA led Twins starters and was second in the American League (Millwood, 2.86). He led the AL in strikeouts with 238 and in WHIP with a pencil-thin 0.97. His three complete games were fourth in the AL and his 231.2 innings pitched were second. What else can you say about the best hurler in the game? Well, his strikeout-to-walks ratio in 2005 was a ridiculous 5.29 (238 Ks to 45 BBs). Santana relies on a mixture of a power fastball, a high-80s slider, and a filthy changeup to befuddle AL hitters, with his changeup arguably the best in the game (outside of Trevor Hoffman). He led the AL in 2005 with a .210 BAA. The most frightening thing about Santana? He's going to get better, and you better believe he's motivated after not winning the Cy Young.
2. Brad Radke - The 11-year veteran had a slightly down year in 2005, going just 9-12 with a 4.04 ERA. However, he's had just one season (2002) in which he pitched fewer than 180 innings, and at age 33, there's no reason to expect anything other than the norm from Radke. If he gets adequate run support, Radke could win 15 games. His 2005 run support average of 4.57 per game was just 33rd in the AL; for him to return to All-Star form, or approach it, Radke needs his offense to step up.
3. Carlos Silva - Silva could be called The Man Who Couldn't Issue a Walk. In 188.3 innings last year, he allowed nine bases on balls. You read that right: nine. On top of that, his 3.44 ERA was fifth in the AL. The Phillies are probably kicking themselves now, but Silva has quietly emerged as one of the most effective starters in the American League.
4. Kyle Lohse - Lohse just won his arbitration case against the Twins, for the second year in a row. He's a horse (over 175 innings pitched four years in a row) but his career ERA of 4.72 and career WHIP of 1.431 are mediocre at best. He's well-suited as a fourth starter, and is likely to be mentioned in tons of trade rumors this season.
5. Scott Baker - What's in the water in the Twin Cities? In his rookie year of 2005, Baker posted a 3.35 ERA. Baker could end up in the bullpen if Francisco Liriano outpitches him in spring training; either way, the Twins have a strong rotation.

Bullpen: Franciso Liriano, Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan. The bullpen is better than average, but lost J.C. Romero and Joe Mays. The impact of those departures demands a step-up season from Liriano, who is being hyped up as the next Johan. Joe Nathan has become a dominant closer and ended 2005 with 43 saves, tied for third in the AL and tied for fourth in MLB.

Strengths: A core of mid-20s players ready to gel; all-around depth; and good pitching. While most teams are heavy on hitters and light on pitchers, the Twins don't have to worry about their pitching. Any team with Johan Santana has a fighting chance.

Weaknesses: Offensive production a major question mark; no true power threat; below average team speed. Besides the questions raised above in the lineup summary, the Twins don't really have a base-stealer. The lineup is also not sure to produce beyond last year's numbers, and has too many question marks to be considered in the same class as Chicago, or for that matter, Cleveland.

X-Factors: Mourneau, Mauer, Hunter, Liriano. The Twins have no chance of competing this year if their three big star hitters can't get out from under their 2005 rut. Liriano could transform the rotation from good to great, but could also be another year away from making a real impact. Will the offense be able to produce 750 runs or more? Will the Twins give their pitchers enough runs to stay competitive?

Outlook: If the Twins can score some more runs, the AL Central is going to be an absolute dogfight. If not, the Twins will quietly finish what could be their last season in Minnesota (they are not obligated by a Metrodome lease) and could watch Torii Hunter leave for greener free-agent pastures.

World Baseball Classic Begins

2006-03-02T10:20:00.000-05:00

The World Baseball Classic begins today, kicking off an international baseball tournament modeled after the World Cup. The first set of games will feature the Tokyo Pool (Pool A), which includes China, Japan, Korea, and Chinese Taipei. Today's game has Korea versus Chinese Taipei playing in the Tokyo Dome, starting at 9:30 eastern time on ESPN. The Tokyo Pool will play five other games through Sunday. Games in the U.S. will begin on Tuesday, with USA versus Mexico at Chase Field, starting at 4 PM.

There have already been a ton of star players who have changed their minds about participating and who are staying in Arizona and Florida. Add Billy Wagner, Pedro Martinez, and Vladimir Guerrero to that list, as all three have backed out this week. This tournament is supposed to be good for "the game" of baseball, baseball as a whole...but for Major League Baseball, it's become a major league distraction. If they choose to hold a WBC in the future, it must, MUST be held in November.

Quick Hits

-Bret Boone retired, quietly, on Wednesday.

-The next team preview for the AL Central will appear tomorrow.

2006 Team Preview: Cleveland Indians

2006-03-01T11:00:00.000-05:00

Great Expectations
-by Josh Dembowitz

The Indians are coming off a surprising 2005 campaign, in which they remained in the playoff hunt until the bitter end. This season, expectations have risen exponentially, and fans are looking for a return to the playoffs for the first time since the end of the Jim Thome era. Cleveland had an eventful offseason, with the trade of Coco Crisp and others to Boston for Guillermo Mota and prospects Andy Marte and Kelly Shoppach, the trade of Arthur Rhodes for Jason Michaels, and the signings of starters Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson. The rotation appears to be stronger, but the lineup weaker. Expectations are high, but whether the Indians have truly improved and can make it over the hump remains to be seen.

The Indians are expected to contend for the division title; will their offseason changes be enough to wrest control from the defending champs?

Lineup: The Tribe's lineup has some holes, but it should be pretty solid top-to-bottom, especially if some guys play up to their potential, and others play like they have in the past. Many of the core guys are still young, and their numbers should only improve as time goes on.

1. CF Grady Sizemore - The former top prospect busted out in his first full major-league campaign, with a .348 OBP, 22 SBs, and exceptional power for a leadoff man (22 HR, 81 RBI). He also scored 111 runs, and is solid with the leather. Furthermore, he is only 23: he should continue to improve, and could even earn an All-Star bid this season.
2. LF Jason Michaels - Michaels is a real question mark in the lineup. He has never had more than 299 ABs in a season, and has never been more than a platoon guy. Michaels has a knack for getting on base (.399 OBP), and has displayed some power as well. The club will be happy with him as long as he gets on base and plays solid D, but the price of Arthur Rhodes may prove to be too high if Michaels can't produce.
3. SS Jhonny Peralta - Peralta solved what had been an enigma going into 2005, shocking everyone with his remarkable play. The 23-year-old had a wonderful 2005 campaign (.366 OBP, .886 OPS, 24 HR, 78 RBI in 141 games), his first full season in the bigs. He was also one of the team’s most clutch hitters, hitting .302 with runners in scoring position. Peralta also flashed the leather from time to time. Big things are expected, and he should deliver, much to the delight of Chief Wahoo.
4. DH Travis Hafner- A Jim Thome clone, Hafner improved his numbers for the third straight year with a truly awe-inspiring campaign. He had 33 HR and 108 RBI - in just 137 games! If he plays a full season, a 40-120 year is quite possible. "Pronk" has evolved into one of the top hitters in the game, period. His 1.003 OPS was second in the AL, and his clutch homers in six straight games helped the team stay in the playoff hunt until the very end.
5. C Victor Martinez - After signing a contract extension, the switch-hitter started off quite slowly last season, hitting .207 in April and .213 in May. But Martinez went on a tear at the end of the year, hitting .402 in August and .352 in September/October. Martinez had a good .378 OBP, and his 20 HR and 80 RBI were surprising considering he had just 4 HR and 15 RBI after two months. If he is consistent, Martinez should even surpass his 2004 season (23-108). He is also quite durable, having started 142 games behind the plate in ’05.
6. 2B Ron Belliard - He may not look like a prototypical baseball player, but he is spectacular with the glove, and more than holds his own at the plate. He has improved his power numbers each of the past three seasons, and slugged 17 HR to go along with his 78 RBI, both career highs. He should stay in the 20-80 range this season and contend for the Gold Glove.
7. 1B Ben Broussard - Broussard has disappointed the club over the past two years, and the team has partially given up on him, having signed supersub Eduardo Perez to platoon with him this year. He will starts against righties. Broussard needs more months like May (4 HR, 15 RBI, .313 AVG), and less like June (3-8-.213). His inconsistency has plagued him, but if he can work through it, he should get the lion’s share of the ABs.
8. 3B Aaron Boone - The 2003 Yankees playoff hero is coming off a disappointing 2005 year. However, he is now fully recovered from his 2003 offseason ACL injury, and should be motivated by the presence of uber-prospect Andy Marte. Boone's biggest weakness is his tendency to swing for the fences, resulting in Ks (92 in 2005), and a low OBP (.299) and BA (.243).
9. RF Casey Blake - Big things were expected of him after a great year in 2004 (.354 OBP, 28 HR, 88 RBI), but he failed to deliver last season, with just a .308 OBP, 116 Ks, and just 23 HR and 58 RBI. Hopefully, Blake can get back on track this season, but the clock is ticking - he’s already 32. His versatility is valuable as well, as he can ably play third base.

Bench: The bench is pretty weak, although Eduardo Perez is coming off a wonderful 2005 season (.368 OBP, 11 HR, 28 RBI in 161 ABs). He will platoon with Broussard. Ramon Vazquez will be the primary backup infielder along with the pride of Framingham, Massachusetts, the one and only Lou Merloni. Shoppach should be a valuable addition who can DH and give Martinez a day off without the lineup suffering greatly. 3B prospect Andy Marte is expected to start off the year in AAA, but he could very easily be starting and producing by midseason. One Braves exec predicts a .240-.250 AVG with 20 HR as he plays from the outset. Todd Hollandsworth could provide a bat off the bench, and could even push Michaels for ABs.

Pitching
Starters: The club definitely bolstered its rotation by acquiring Byrd and Johnson to go along with their terrific trio of C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Jake Westbrook, all of whom had solid to spectacular 2005 campaigns. This should not be a problem this year. However, the rotation has a lot to live up to: last season’s starters pitched at least 5 innings in 87.7% of their starts, and had a combined 3.96 ERA. If any of the starters falter, the minor league system is well-stocked with a plethora of talented youngsters.

1. C.C. Sabathia - The hefty lefty (290 lb.) is coming off a year in which he set career highs in wins (15) and Ks (169). He closed the year off with a bang, going 9-1 in August and September. If he pitches anywhere close to that, he will be one of the top guys in the AL. More likely, he will be a 15-17 win guy who the club can count on to give them a quality start every fifth day.
2. Cliff Lee - Lee had an amazing 2005 season, going 18-5 with a 3.79 ERA. He is entering his prime now (he’ll turn 28 in August), and there is little reason to believe he can’t at the very least duplicate his ERA and Ks (143). Big things are expected of Lee for the first time, and we’ll soon know how he responds to the pressure.
3. Jake Westbrook - Westbrook had a maddeningly inconsistent season in which he won 15 games while losing 15, a year in which his ERA jumped more than one whole run, up from 3.38 in ’04 to 4.49 in ’05. He got off to a terrible start in ’05 before rebounding nicely. If he can be more consistent and pitch more like 2004 (14-9, 3.38), the club will be thrilled.
4. Paul Byrd - Byrd is coming off a pretty good season, having won 12 games to go with a 3.74 ERA. He won’t strike out a lot of guys, but he will be a dependable arm who can befuddle hitters with his funky delivery. Byrd, a 12-year vet labeled a throwback by teammates and coaches, is looking to have one more good year in the sun.
5. Jason Johnson - He has been pretty bad 3 of the past 4 seasons, losing 13, 14, and 15 games. However, he has the stuff to succeed, and is pitching for a quality team for the first time in his life. The club is hoping for a career rejuvenation from the 32-year-old.

Bullpen: The pen was improved in 2005, largely due to the presence of large closer Bob Wickman. After the club failed to sign other closers this offseason, Wickman re-signed with them. He doesn’t strike out many guys (41 Ks in 62 IP), but he gets the job done (45 saves). The key for him is staying healthy. The rest of the bullpen is a mess. Youngster Fernando Cabrera is promising and pitched well last season, but remains unproven. Guillermo Mota is coming off a disappointing year in which he lost the closer’s role. He was traded twice this offseason, leading many to believe he has lingering physical problems. Rafael Betancourt was servicable in 2005 but had his season diminished by a positive steroids test. The rest of the bullpen is a ragtag collection of spare parts looking to return to the glory days, including Danny Graves, Steve Karsay, and Scott Sauerbeck.

Strengths: The top four starters are solid if unspectacular. All four should approach or surpass 15 wins, and all four go out and keep their team in the game pretty much every time out. The heart of the lineup is impressive as well: Peralta, Hafner, and Martinez are all young sluggers coming off wonderful 2005 campaigns, yet have enough potential to improve on their ’05 stats. Wickman is a solid closer as well, provided he stays healthy. Sizemore is super-talented, and should become an All-Star.

Weaknesses: The bullpen is a mess after Wickman, and even he could fall apart at any moment, judging from his long injury history. The team appears to be praying that Karsay and Graves enjoy career resurrections, but this is unlikely. The lineup also has many flaws. The bottom of the lineup is pretty weak as it stands: Broussard and Blake should be no better than platooners, and Boone was mediocre at best last year. Michaels should be no better than a fourth outfielder. The rotation lacks a clearly defined ace, which could cost them come playoff time.

X-Factors: Wickman, Blake, Westbrook, Michaels. Wickman must stay healthy to anchor the bullpen, as the club has no other good options to close. The Tribe really needs a better year out of Blake, especially since they are now lacking Coco Crisp’s production. Westbrook must pitch like he did in ’04 and parts of ’05. If the club wants to contend with a lineup full of holes, it needs to have at least four consistent starters.

Outlook: The club could win 90 games, but they should fall short of the playoffs this season. The lineup has too many weaknesses, and the back end of the rotation has question marks as well. The team should be exciting to watch now and in the future. Chief Wahoo's nucleus is young and talented, and more top youngsters are on the way. Baseball is back and booming in Cleveland.

2006 Team Preview: Chicago White Sox

2006-02-28T10:00:00.000-05:00

Runnin' Down A Dream
-by Josh Dembowitz

Last season, the Chicago White Sox shocked the world, running away with their division (at least until August), dominating both the Red Sox and Angels in the playoffs, and finally turning aside the Astros to win it all for the first time in 88 years. The World Champion South Siders had quite a successful offseason as well, making shrewd acquisitions in an attempt to reposition themselves for a run at another ring, fortifying already strong areas and patching up weak spots from last season. The club acquired a likely Hall of Fame slugger in 1B/DH Jim Thome, a quality starter in Javier Vazquez, and a superutilityman to help the club play “Ozzieball” in Rob Mackowiak.

The South Siders look to become MLB's first repeat champ since the 2000 Yankees.

Chicago appears to have improved on paper, and easily has the top pitching staff in the majors, with five guys capable of winning 15 games while pitching 200-plus innings. The team appears to be better, but how will it perform under expectations, after little was expected of them last season? The White Sox seem to have what it takes to repeat, but we’ll have to wait quite a few more months to see how that one turns out.

Lineup:
The lineup has a good balance between speed guys, contact hitters, and sluggers. The acquisition of Thome should bolster the team’s runs totals, and will give the squad another power bat to deliver the clutch homer and, more importantly, to protect slugging 1B Paul Konerko.

1. LF Scott Podsednik - The World Series walkoff hero (see “Trading Places" 10/25/05) is also the club’s tablesetter and top baserunner (59 steals in 129 games). Podsednik is always a threat to steal a bag or take the extra base on a hit, which is why he is so valuable to the club. He helps manager Ozzie Guillen play smallball by doing all of the little things necessary to manufacture runs - bunting, stealing bags, taking the extra base, tagging up on fly balls, etc. Unfortunately, he may be slow to recover from offseason hernia surgery, which would severely impact the entire lineup.
2. 2B Tadahito Iguchi - The Japanese import did not disappoint in his first season, becoming an ideal No. 2 hitter, getting on base (.342 OBP), stealing the occasional bag (15 SBs), and driving in runs (15 HR, 71 RBI), accomplishing all of this in just 135 games. Now fully adjusted to America and the majors, he should have an ever better 2006 campaign. Look for around a .350 OBP, 20 steals, 20 homers, and 85 RBIs.
3. DH Jim Thome - Thome is coming off an injury-plagued, ineffective 2005 campaign, in which he slugged just .352, with only 7 HR and 30 RBI. However, the injuries to his elbow and back played a key role in this ineffectiveness. All reports are that Thome is fully healthy once more and ready for another 40 HR-100 RBI campaign. U.S. Cellular [ed. note: Chicagoans prefer "Comiskey", "the Cell" or "the Joan"] is a great park for homers, and Thome should be very motivated to silence the critics who think his best days are behind him. He is also returning to his roots (he grew up in Peoria), which should keep him plenty happy. Look for an absolute explosion from Thome- he only has to focus on hitting this season, and he should be in the zone all season long.
4. 1B Paul Konerko - The slugger carried the team on his back for much of 2005 (40-100-.375 OBP), his second straight 40-homer campaign. He just signed a five-year extension with the club and will now be free of all distractions. Couple that with the protection now being offered by Thome, a guy who can also give Konerko plenty of days at the DH slot, and he should easily match his ’05 stats.
5. RF Jermaine Dye - The World Series MVP had a wonderful ’05 season, slugging 31 homers to go along with 86 RBIs. He also had a respectable .333 OBP, and stole 11 bases. Furthermore, Dye is still just 32, even though he seems to me as if he has been around forever. He still has a few good years left in him- provided he stays healthy.
6. C A.J. Pierzynski - The oft-criticized catcher silenced the naysayers with a phenomenal 2005 playoffs, and he also drew rave reviews from Sox pitchers. His OBP and RBIs diminished somewhat in ’05, but he could easily return to 15 homer-75 RBI territory, which is all the White Sox need from him. The club must monitor him more carefully this year- he wore down late in the regular season, with just a .289 OBP after September 1.
7. 3B Joe Crede - Crede is coming off a season in which he set a career high in homers, with 22. However, he would do well to stop swinging for the fences and get on base more (career OBP: .303). He is solid with the glove, but he must become more consistent (he had two months in which he hit below .200) if he wants to remain the starter. Baseball observers have been waiting for him to bust out for some time- the clock is ticking, but luckily, the 27-year-old is just entering his prime. Look for Rob Mackowiak to steal some ABs unless Crede starts getting more walks and gets on base more.
8. SS Juan Uribe - The 26-year-old had a steady but somewhat disappointing 2005 campaign, in which most of his numbers dipped from their 2004 levels. However, any No. 8 hitter who can hit 16 homers and drive in 71 runs is pretty solid. Uribe must get on base more (.301 OBP), but he is good in the field, with a power arm, and is still young. Look for him to surpass his ’05 numbers- he could very well hit 20 homers, drive in 80 runs, and have a .325 OBP.
9. CF Brian Anderson - The highly touted rookie was handed the job when the team traded former CF Aaron Rowand to the Phillies for Thome. Anderson hit 15 homers and batted .295 in Class AAA last season. The club would be thrilled if he duplicated those numbers. The team doesn’t need much out of him other than solid defense and a decent OBP. Anderson could be pushed by another highly regarded prospect in Jerry Owens, the Class AA Southern League batting champ in ’05. He will likely begin the year in Class AAA, but could start in center if Anderson falters.

Bench: The bench is deep, a necessity for Guillen, who loves to pinch-hit and pinch-run. Infield backups include Ross Gload and Pablo Ozuna. Possible backup outfielders include Owens and switch-hitting slugger Joe Borchard (29 HR in Class AAA last season). The most important reserve is super-utilityman Rob Mackowiak, who can ably fill in at second, third, or any of the outfield positions. He offers Gullen tons of options, and should see significant playing time, albeit at different positions all of the time.

Pitching: Both the rotation and bullpen appear to be just as good if not better than last season. None of the starters are dominant, and none of them will get a ton of Ks. However, when the dust settles, they will all have posted outstanding seasons and racked up a lot of innings pitched. In the end, the White Sox will live and die with their arms, for better or for worse.

Starters:
1. Mark Buehrle- The lefty is known for his fast-paced style, and his ability to get guys out. He had another 16-win year in ’05, along with a career-best 3.12 ERA. Buehrle has been named the Opening Day starter and while he may not be a typical ace, he gets the job done for the team. Expect a 16-to-18 win year from the southpaw.
2. Freddy Garcia- The righty rebounded from a couple of mediocre seasons, returning to previous form and going 14-8 with a 3.87 ERA and 146 Ks. Garcia was dominant in the playoffs as well. He appears to be back on track, and could easily post a 175 strikeout, 16-18 win season.
3. Javier Vazquez- The lone newcomer to the rotation, Vazquez is coming off another sub-.500 campaign (11-15), this time for the D-Backs. However, he had 192 Ks and displayed flashes of brilliance. The clock is ticking for the righty to get himself together- he has the stuff but has been giving up too many big hits over the last few years, ending up with a high ERA and too many losses. This could be his last chance to prove that he deserves to be a No. 2 guy or even an ace. Look for Vazquez to deliver in a big way, with 15 wins and 195 Ks. He should also be a workhorse, as he has pitched at least 198 innings in each of the last four years.
4. Jose Contreras- The Cuban defector is coming off a tremendous season in which he finally put it all together, posting a 15-7 record along with 154 Ks. His deceptive delivery will enable him to continue striking guys out, and his confidence should be high after his first truly successful big-league campaign and a dominant playoffs. However, the loss of fellow countryman Orlando Hernandez could drastically affect his comfort level. Don’t expect that to happen though- Ozzie Guillen is tremendous with Spanish-speaking players. Contreras should have another whale of a year.
5. Jon Garland- Only in Chicago can a 2005 All Star become the No. 5 guy. Garland started off the year in sizzling fashion, soaring to an 8-0 start, but then the real Jon Garland came out, going just 10-10 with a 3.91 ERA. Garland still ended up with a 3.50 ERA. Look for a 12-15 win campaign, but he could also be pushed by stud Brandon McCarthy.
6. Brandon McCarthy- He would have easily have won a rotation spot if not for the incredible talent ahead of him. For now, he may have to settle for a long relief role. However, if any pitcher falters or gets injured, the club will call on the supremely gifted 22-year-old.

Bullpen: The bullpen is adequate but unspectacular. The team has two former closers in Cliff Politte and Dustin Hermanson, and both could step in if closer Bobby Jenks falters. Based on Jenks’ 2005 playoffs, that seems highly unlikely. Jenks lit up the radar gun with 100-mph fastballs. As long as he stays in the strike zone, he’ll be fine, and will strike out a whole lot of guys. Other bullpen slots will go to a mix of Neal Cotts, McCarthy, David Sanders, and Jeff Bajenaru.

Strengths: An improved lineup, the best pitching staff in baseball, and a potentially dominant closer are just a few of the pluses this team possesses. The lineup is balanced and has a little bit of everything, which should enable it to win both slugfests and one-run games. The staff will keep the club in every game, and will save the bullpen from being taxed too much, since each starter could pitch 200 innings. Jenks looked unhittable in the playoffs, and if he remains this way, he could become one of the top closers in the game. Ozzie Guillen also may be, aside from Joe Torre, the best manager in the AL. His decisions helped the team win many games last year.

Weaknesses: The team still has a lack of power, which can always hurt a team that needs a big hit to drive in multiple runs and change the complexion of the game. Thome could also get hurt at any point, which would severely damage the lineup. The bottom third of the lineup is pretty weak- Crede has been a bust so far, Uribe has a very low OBP, and Anderson is a rookie. The bullpen lacks a dominant setup man.

X-Factors: Thome, Jenks, Vazquez. If Thome stays healthy and performs at his typical 40 HR, 120 RBI level, the team will have a potent one-two punch. Thome’s presence in the lineup would also help the rest of the guys see more pitches. However, he is getting up there in age- how much more does he have left in the tank? G.M. Kenny Williams took a huge risk in acquiring Thome- will it pay off or not? Jenks may have been lights-out late last year, but he has yet to go through the grind of an entire season. He must not rely too much on his fastball, or he might get punished. Vazquez has had two straight difficult seasons. He has rarely pitched on a winning team, which he will get the opportunity to do this year. The only other time he pitched for a winner, he was terrible, posting a 4.91 ERA for the 2004 Yankees. Will he become a 200-K guy whom the team can count on for more than just innings? His performance could dictate how far the team goes.

Outlook: The lineup appears to be better, and so does the rotation. The team should coast to a division title, and will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. In the end, if everyone holds up, Chicago could be throwing a parade for the second year in a row.

2006 Team Preview: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

2006-02-27T12:00:00.000-05:00

Last March of the Devil Rays

The Devil Rays are getting a lot of attention these days, as they await a glut of minor-league and young major-league talent to develop into a formidable offense in the AL East. They're probably a popular pick to finish fourth this season, but following the AL East theme thus far, the pitching just isn't good enough to justify that projection. The Devil Rays have a chance to trade some assets for young pitching this season while expectations are still low. In 2007, with a name change and new uniforms, and with young stars Upton, Young, Crawford, Kazmir, and Baldelli, the Rays will be able to reach .500 for the first time in franchise history.

The Devil Rays see the light at the end of the tunnel.

After having several players mentioned in trade speculation, the Devil Rays didn't really do anything until trading Danys Baez this offseason. Aubrey Huff and Julio Lugo are often mentioned in rumors, and could be dealt anytime between now and July 31. A trade of either or both of those players would indicate the organization's willingness to try out super-prospects Delmon Young and B.J. Upton at the major league level. However, many scouting reports indicate that both young players need more time in the minors before they're ready for their long, hot cup of coffee. In addition, the Devil Rays are known for keeping young prospects in the minor leagues as long as possible, to maximize the options on that player throughout his young career.

Lineup: Tampa Bay has speed (2nd in AL in stolen bases last year), rising stars, and significant depth offensively. Will Gerry Hunsicker and Andrew Friedman pull the trigger on a franchise-altering deal for young pitching? Will Huff and Lugo establish enough value in the first few months to be worth trading?

1. LF Carl Crawford - 2005 was his third year playing full-time in the bigs, and Crawford announced he is here to stay. Since 2003, Crawford has demonstrated incremental improvement in hits, doubles, HRs, RBIs, AVG, OBP, and SLG. Plus, and he consistently steals 50 bases. Even though he's well-known around the league already, Crawford could step up even more in 2006. He's crucial to Tampa Bay's production this year and for the next decade.
2. CF Rocco Baldelli - He missed the 2005 season while recovering from knee and elbow surgeries, and may hit closer to the 6 hole if the coaches feel he isn't ready to slot in at #2. Baldelli's 2004 season of .280/.326/.436 provides hope for a bright future, especially if he improves on his 2004 RBI, HR, and SB totals of 74, 16, and 17. If all goes as planned, the Rays will have Baldelli in CF for a long time.
3. SS Julio Lugo - We've been told that he's simply keeping the seat warm for Upton, and that he could be traded at any time. The Rays could really use some more pitching, and trading a talented shortstop is certainly one way of achieving that goal. His 39 SBs and .295/.362/.403 in 2005 make him a highly valuable commodity.
4. 2B Jorge Cantu - In his breakout 2005 season, Cantu led the Devil Dogs in HR, RBI, and OPS with 28, 117, and .808. He was hitting at #3, but must slide down to #4 with the return of Baldelli. The Rays could move Cantu back up to #3 if Huff and/or Lugo is traded, and/or if Young is called up to the bigs.
5. 3B Aubrey Huff - For Tampa Bay, he's an extravagant luxury (2005 salary of $4,916,667). At that price, they don't need his bat, and his trade value will never be higher. In fact, his value has gone down over the past few months, as his 2005 numbers were down across the board from his 2004 production. Tampa Bay has no place for him in the outfield with a healthy Baldelli, and would like to see Huff prove his worth in the opening months before dealing him for pitching. Then again, we heard all last year that Huff was being traded, so maybe Tampa is holding onto him to play 3B.
6. DH Jonny Gomes - Another young outfielder (they grow like weeds in Tampa Bay, apparently) with tons of potential, Gomes had a breakout year in 2005 with 21 HRs in just 348 ABs. He'll platoon at DH with Huff and others, but eventually Gomes is slated to have an everyday job. His 2005 numbers of .282/.372/.534 should get even better with more playing time, but Gomes needs to drive in more runners this year.
7. 1B Travis Lee - 12 HR and 49 RBI isn't what you're looking for in a 1B. By moving Delmon Young to 1B and trading Huff or Gathright (or both) for pitching, the Rays could improve production at 1B significantly. Even if Huff starts the season at 1B, it will be a major step up from Lee, who hasn't ever produced the numbers that were expected of him when he started out with Arizona and Philadelphia. Lee would be a nice pinch hitter and occasional starter off the bench.
8. RF Damon Hollins - At age 31, Hollins finally got the chance to play a full season in the bigs. His .249/.296/.418 was unimpressive, and he is more suited to a bench role. With Crawford, Baldelli, Huff, Gomes, Gathright, and Young in the fold for 2006, Hollins' days as a starter may be numbered (if they aren't over already).
9. C Toby Hall - A .989 fielding percentage and a .287 batting average in 2005 made Hall one of the most underrated catchers in the AL. In 2005, Hall posted career highs in RBIs, hits, batting average, and OBP (based on full seasons). He should continue his gradual improvement and could be a nice contributor with 10 HR, 50 RBI, and a healthy batting average.

They're young, they're fast, and they're just getting started. Trading Huff and Lugo, and even Gathright, seems like the way to clear position logjams, define roles, and improve the pitching staff. We'll take a wait-and-see approach with the trade rumors, but until then, the Rays will score plenty of runs.

Bench:
2B Nick Green, OF Joey Gathright, 3B Sean Burroughs, C Josh Paul, IF Ty Wigginton. Reclamation project Burroughs was traded for 2005 Opening Day Starter/Major Headache Dewon Brazleton. If Lugo is traded, Green could take over some IF duties until Upton is ready. Gathright could also be traded, but until then will be a super-sub in the outfield. Burroughs could take the starting 3B job from veteran Huff, who has played outfield more recently or who could take the 1B job from Lee. If Huff is traded, the hot corner is Burroughs' to lose. That is, unless journeyman Russell Branyan can resurrect his career.

OF Delmon Young - Listed as Baseball America's #1 prospect for 2006, Young should be appearing at a major league ballpark near you this season. After laying waste to Class A and Class AA pitching, Young showed vulnerability in Class AAA and will need some more seasoning. It's likely he'll begin the campaign at AAA, but there's no way he stays there the whole season. He may be switched over to 1B if the Rays want to horde all of their young outfielders.

SS B.J. Upton - .304/.391/.474. Those are Upton's numbers from three minor-league seasons. Think he's ready? He's been working with the Wizard of Oz to improve his defense for 2006, when the Rays will bring him to the bigs for good.

Pitching: The starting rotation begins with one of the best young lefties in the game, and then drops off the table like a slider in the dirt. All the young outfielders in the world won't save this rotation (unless some of those outfielders get traded for pitchers).
Starters
1. Scott Kazmir - Former Rays GM Chuck LaMar stole Kazmir from the Mets, and now Kazmir is the future of Tampa Bay baseball. Without taking away from Upton, Crawford, Baldelli, and Young, the Rays will only go as far as Kazmir's golden left arm can take them. In 2005, his 174 K's were fourth in the AL and his 3.77 ERA led Tampa Bay starters. He's gained about 15 pounds of leg muscle this offseason to improve his drive and balance, which should help him cut down on his walks (2005 WHIP of 1.46). Oh, Kazmir is just 22 years old.
2. Mark Hendrickson - He isn't your ideal #2 starter, as he required a 5.90 ERA and a WHIP of 1.55 to scratch out 11 wins in 2005. A finesse pitcher, the lefty Hendrickson mixes a fastball, changeup, curveball, and cutter. The Devil Rays could use a legit #2 starter, preferably a right-hander, to slot between Kazmir and Hendrickson. Then manager Joe Maddon could go with a L-R-L-L-R pitching rotation.

The rest of the Rays' rotation is scary. Scary bad. The 2005 ERAs and WHIPs for lefty Casey Fossum and righties Seth McClung and Doug Waechter: 4.92/1.41, 6.59/1.54, 5.62/1.46.

Bullpen Travis Harper, Jesus Colome, Chad Harville, Tim Corcoran, Dan Miceli, Edwin Jackson, Shinji Mori, Chad Orvella. In 37 games in 2005, Orvella had 1.86 Ks per BB. If he is going to close for the Rays, he'll need to become more consistent and allow fewer baserunners. Mori, a five-time all-star in Japan and the owner of a nasty forkball, could take the closer's job if he continues his impressive spring. Miceli is a dark horse candidate to take the 9th inning reins, while Jesus Colome is also in the mix.

Strengths: Offense, bullpen, left-handed pitching. When the time is right, Tampa Bay will be able to score runs with any team in the league. Their bullpen has surprising depth and will likely have a heavy workload this summer. The starting rotation has three left-handed pitchers, which could provide for some favorable matchups.

Weaknesses: Starting pitching, youth. They're awfully young, and their starting pitching outside of Kazmir is downright dreadful. Playing 57 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays won't help that situation. Until their rotation improves, this is a sub-.500 club.

X-Factors: Kazmir, Huff, Lugo, Cantu. Will the Tampa Bay front office trade the team's two highest-paid players, Lugo and Huff, for young pitchers as speculated? Will Kazmir build on his impressive 2005 campaign? Can Cantu keep the offense afloat while the young hitters develop around him?

Outlook: Looks like 2006 will be the last season in the cellar for the Devil Rays. In 2007, with a name change, healthy young stars, and better pitching, the Rays will contend for their first .500 record. In 2006, they're playing for respect.

2006 Team Preview: Baltimore Orioles

2006-02-21T17:21:00.000-05:00

Running in Circles

In 2005, for the seventh time in eight years, the Baltimore Orioles finished the season in fourth place in the AL East. The Orioles haven't finished a season above .500 since winning the division title in 1997 behind team leaders Mike Mussina and Brady Anderson. So for Orioles fans to hear trade talk swirling around franchise icon Miguel Tejada, and for the Orioles to move in their characteristically slow manner with free agents, there wasn't much chance of this being a happy offseason. Unfortunately, it won't be a very happy regular season either.

Baltimore's last playoff appearance was in 1997.

Kevin Millar say that every team goes into Spring Training with a chance to win it all, that nobody can write a team off before the season starts. Well, I am writing them off right now. The Orioles look like a team with no plan. The once-proud franchise hasn't won a title in 23 years, and the Orioles continue to get stuck between committing to young players and overspending on free agents. Nevertheless, their young pitching may be a glimmer of hope this year, if pitching coach whiz Leo Mazzone can work his magic again.

Lineup:The Orioles have three legit hitters at the top of their order, but there's a serious drop-off after that. Can they count on aging vets Lopez and Millar and reclamation project Patterson to keep them in the race with the big boys?

1. 2B Brian Roberts - He won't be starting the season on time, due to the elbow dislocation that ended his 2005 season prematurely. Once he gets back, Roberts should return to his 2005 form, when he broke out with a .314/.387/.515, hitting 18 home runs and stealing 27 bases. Roberts is one of the better defensive second basemen in the American League, fielding .988 in both of his full big league seasons. At age 28, he seems to be just getting started.
2. 3B Melvin Mora - A team-leading 27 home runs in 2005 was great for Mora, who has been strong in his support of the organization this offseason, requesting a contract extension and showing his dedication to the organization by attending the funeral of Elrod Hendricks in December. Mora has always been underrated at his position, probably because he's played so many of them. 2006 will be his third season as a regular third baseman, so his fielding percentage (.948 in 2004, .957 in 2005) should improve again. It's no coincidence that since taking over the regular hot corner duties, Mora has displayed above average power at the plate. His career OPS of .815 is good, but will improve with Mora's third straight season of 25-plus homers.
3. SS Miguel Tejada - In 2005, Tejada failed to reach the 30-HR plateau for just the second time in six years. His RBI total fell from 150 in 2004 to just 98 in 2005, despite Tejada playing in all 162 games in both seasons. Clearly, Tejada's skills are inextricably linked to his mental health; he was on fire during the first half of the season, when the Orioles spent the first half in first place. As the team faded, so did Tejada's intensity, and with it, his run production. For the Orioles to stay afloat in '06, they need Tejada to go full tilt for all 162 games. A 30-HR, 135-RBI season would do the trick.
4. DH Javy Lopez - He's been around for 14 seasons, if you can believe it, and he's aged quickly. Since 2003, his RBIs have dropped from 109 to 86 to 49 (in 457, 579, and 395 at bats). His slugging percentage is down from .687 in 2003 to .503 to .458 last year. He doesn't have an everyday job anymore, with the O's adding the ageless Jeff Conine and the streaky Kevin Millar during the offseason. Lopez likely will get 400 at bats, but he isn't a reliable producer any longer, and certainly isn't a good cleanup hitter, especially in the AL. His .322 OBP in 2005 tied for his lowest mark of any season in which he played at least 100 games.
5. RF Jay Gibbons - He signed a 4-year, $21.1 million deal with the O's this offseason, coming off the second-best season of his career. Just once in his career, Gibbons has had over 500 at bats in a season; so it's tough to judge his talent. Is he an injury-prone outfielder who is an average producer? Or is he an above-average outfielder with decent power (25+ HRs, 100 RBIs). The Orioles must see some huge upside in Gibbons, but what is upside for a 29-year old? Especially one with a career OBP of .315?
6. C Ramon Hernandez - Signing Hernandez to a 4-year, $27.5 million deal this offseason was one of the only things the team did right. Typical for the Orioles, even this one positive note has some negative spin. Javy Lopez is well past his prime, while Hernandez is theoretically smack in the middle of his best years. Typically, MLB catchers trail off around age 32, so Hernandez should have at least two, if not three, good seasons left in him. But he's already had four seasons in which he caught at least 135 games (2000-2003). Since then, he hasn't been able to put together 400 at-bats in a season. Will he stay healthy enough to hit 20 HRs and drive in 80 runs? Or has he already had his best years? 15 HRs and 75 RBIs would be great for most catchers, but the O's are counting on a huge year from him. That's unlikely, though he is one of the better defensive signal-callers (career FP of .989) in the game.
7. CF Corey Patterson - Alright, here's the deal on Patterson (see January 9th post "Song for the Dumped"). I watched him play in Chicago for five years, and every year, I heard about his five tools. Well, they should start talking about that ever-elusive sixth tool: using your head. Patterson is a speedster, a potential .300 hitter with doubles power and occasional pop. Yet, he has insisted on swinging for the fences throughout his career. His career OBP is a ghastly .293. He's getting a fresh start in Baltimore, but it may be too late. Here's a data table from the 1/9/06 post, and it tells me everything I need to know about Patterson.

Corey Patterson, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Year	AB	BB	K	BB:K Ratio	AB per BB
2002	592	19	142	0.134	31.2
2003	329	15	77	0.195	21.9
2004	631	45	168	0.268	14
2005	451	23	118	0.195	19.6
Career	2176	111	552	0.201	19.6

8. 1B Kevin Millar - Either 2005 was a hiccup, or it was the beginning of Millar's downward slide. I'm betting on the latter. His power numbers were way down from 2004, (.474 to .399 in SLG) and even his 2004 numbers are deceptive due to his streakiness. With Javy Lopez and Jeff Conine in the mix, it's hard to see Millar getting more than 350-400 ABs. His contribution to the clubhouse could be a boon for Baltimore, but ultimately, success comes on the field. Maybe the people in Boston know something that the people in Baltimore don't yet see.
9. LF Luis Matos - His starting CF job is now in Patterson's hands, unless something happens this spring to force manager Sam Perlozzo's hand. Last year, Matos showed improved speed and plate discipline (career high 17 SBs) in limited playing time (389 ABs). The Orioles have never given him a chance to play everyday, so it's tough to tell what he's capable of doing. With consistent playing time, he should improve on his solid 2005 campaign of .280 AVG/.340 OBP.

The Orioles don't have any lineup protection for Miguel Tejada. Javy Lopez, Jay Gibbons, and Ramon Hernandez won't be enough to support Tejada, Mora, and Roberts, and the Orioles' pitching will need a lot of runs from the offense. It doesn't look promising.

Bench: OF David Newhan, 1B/OF/DH Jeff Conine, IF Chris Gomez, OF Val Majewski, C Geronimo Gil. Conine will split time with Millar and Lopez at the 1B and DH spots, and may even win a starting role in camp. A thin bench for a team with a thin lineup is a major problem. Too bad it's one of the Orioles' many flaws.

Pitching: In the AL East, if you don't have offense, you'd better have pitching. The Orioles have too little of both. Their pitchers are incapable of shutting down the offenses in the division, and the bullpen isn't strong enough to support the starters. It's going to be a long season.
Starters
1. Kris Benson - When Kris Benson is your staff "ace," you've got problems. He has a career ERA of 4.25 and a career WHIP of 1.374. Those aren't great numbers, especially for an NL pitcher. His switch to the AL could produce a 4.75 ERA and a lot of baserunners. Will he turn up the intensity and get 15 wins? When that's a question you're asking of your #1 starter, your rotation is just not good.
2. Rodrigo Lopez - He carried the staff in '05 with 15 wins, but his WHIP was 1.409 and his ERA was 4.90. On any other staff, he would be a solid #4 starter. But for the O's, Lopez is an anchor. His fastball tops out at 88 MPH and his splits indicate that he gets hit hard from both sides of the plate. If the Orioles don't get 15 wins out of the crafty Lopez, where will they get them from?
3. Bruce Chen - The team leader in ERA in 2005 with 3.83, the journeyman Chen looks like he's found a home in Camden Yards. The fact that he led the team with 6.07 K per 9 innings is frightening. Like Lopez, he is a #4 starter, possibly a 5, on a good pitching staff. If he can repeat his success from 2005, the Orioles will have to be pleased.
4. Erik Bedard - Lots of teams were hot after the young lefty this offseason, and with good reason. His walks, ERA, and WHIP are going down, his Ks are up, and he could have a breakout season in 2006. He may vault himself to the top of the Orioles rotation in mid-season, especially if Benson struggles. If the Orioles trade him for some unknown reason, it's a clear signal that they're rebuilding. Again.
5. Daniel Cabrera - Stuff has never been an issue for Cabrera. It's his makeup, his consistency, that will determine his ability to succeed at the big league level. Though his ERA and WHIP went down in 2005, he still has a long way to go. Leo Mazzone will certainly play a part in Cabrera's improvement; but for the Orioles to have a chance at competing, they need Cabrera (and Bedard) to leap-frog the mediocre pitchers in this rotation.

Bullpen LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Williams, Chris Ray, Hayden Penn, John Parrish. Chris Ray is penciled in as the closer, with Hawkins and Williams setting up. Penn could break the rotation in camp, could start the season in AAA, or could get some seasoning in the 'pen. Todd Williams had a great season in 2005 and needs to continue that trend for the Orioles to see the bullpen as a strength.

Strengths: The top 3 hitters in the order are all studs. The defense up the middle is solid, especially the double-play/All-Star combo of Tejada and Roberts. If the pieces fall into place, the bullpen could be better than advertised.

Weaknesses: Corner outfield power, even if Gibbons stays healthy, is not enough. First base production could be a significant issue as the season wears on. The rotation is weak, and young.

X-Factors: Bedard and Cabrera could have breakout seasons, which would really change the perception of the franchise. Potential closer Chris Ray has had great numbers, but can he do it consistently in high-pressure situations? Can Hawkins re-establish his value in the late innings?

Outlook: There's a really good core of guys here: Roberts, Tejada, Mora, Bedard, Cabrera, Hernandez. The problem is that the supporting cast is too weak, and expensive (team payroll is around $75 million). The bigger problem is that the Orioles play in the AL East. Another fourth place finish is in store for 2006.

2006 Team Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

2006-02-17T10:03:00.000-05:00

The Blue Jay Way

Way, way back in the early 1990s, when Desert Storm and the end of the Cold War were the focus of the real world, the Toronto Blue Jays were the tops. In 1992, they beat the A’s and Braves in 6 games apiece to win the World Series; in 1993, they beat the White Sox and Phillies in 6 games apiece to repeat as Series champs. They won 368 games from 1990-1993, tops in the majors. The only other team with 300+ wins was Chicago, with 361; but the SouthSiders never won back to back titles. After winning 3 straight AL East titles and 2 straight World Series titles, and ever since the moment Joe Carter’s home run went into Skydome orbit, the Jays have managed to win 887 games in 12 years. That's an average of 92 wins per season in the 1990s glory days, and an average of 74 wins per seasons since. So GM J.P. Ricciardi tried to shake the once proud franchise out of its slumber by going on a free-agent spending spree.

The Blue Jays look to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

After winning 80 games in 2005, the Blue Jays knew they had holes to fill and money to spend. They finished with 136 home runs (11th in the AL) and a team slugging percentage of .407 (10th in the AL). Blue Jays relievers combined for 35 saves, 13th in the AL. The influx of new players has changed the perception of the franchise dramatically, without a single pitch being thrown yet. The 2006 Blue Jays will include (no kidding): Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, Bengie Molina, and Shea Hillenbrand. If that sounds like last year’s fantasy team, don’t laugh: Ricciardi is banking on their success to catapult the franchise back to respectability. They look good on paper, but the season is 7 months long. Then the playoffs start. Will the Jays start hot and fade down the stretch, or will they be in the thick of the race come September? That depends on their newly acquired stars.

Lineup: In 2005, they had Vernon Wells and...well... Now, they have some serious power on deck. Will it be enough to compete with New York and Boston?

1. SS Russ Adams - In 2005, his first full season in the bigs, Adams had an OBP of .325. That's not good enough for the leadoff spot. If he can't increase his OBP, Reed Johnson could get a shot at the 1-spot. Adams will be expected to score a ton of runs in front of the big boppers, but scored just 68 times in 481 ABs last year. He doesn't strike out a lot, but he also doesn't draw many walks (57 and 50 in 2005). Can he step up in his sophomore season?
2. LF Reed Johnson - After a solid rookie campaign in 2003, Johnson was given more at bats in 2004 and his numbers did not improve as expected. In 2005, he was given 398 at bats instead of the 537 he saw in 2004. With the depth of the Jays' bench, Johnson is not guaranteed an everyday role. He could split time in the corner outfield spots with Alexis Rios, Frank Catalanotto, and Eric Hinske. The Jays would love Johnson to step up his game in 2006, but will they give him enough at bats to build his confidence level?
3. CF Vernon Wells - A .994 career fielding percentage and two consecutive Gold Gloves (2004, 2005) make Wells arguably the best centerfielder in the AL. An All-Star in 2003, Wells has had to carry the Blue Jays since the departure of Carlos Delgado after the 2004 season, in which neither Wells or Delgado managed to appear in 135 games. Without any real lineup protection, Wells' OBP has declined from .359 to .337 to .320 (2003-2005) and his SLG has declined from .550 to .472 to .463 (2003-2005). In 2006, with newly acquired protection from Glaus and Overbay, he should have similar numbers to 2003, when he hit .317/.359/.550 and had 33 HRs and 117 RBIs. He's on the USA roster for the WBC, and should start the season ready to have a banner year for the Jays.
4. 3B Troy Glaus - He won the 2002 World Series MVP, but battled injuries for most of 2003 and 2004. In 2005, his only season with the Diamondbacks, Glaus returned to his All-Star form, crushing 37 home runs and slugging .522. He does strike out with the best of them, but so do a lot of the other "scary monsters" (thanks, Rob Neyer) in the bigs. He should see a lot of good pitches batting behind Wells and in front of Overbay. His 2005 OBP of .363 was pretty good, his highest since 2001. See the Baseball Universe archives for our 12/24/05 post about the trade that brought Glaus north of the border.
5. 1B Lyle Overbay - In 2004, he had a white-hot start but cooled off significantly after the All-Star Break. In 2005, he displayed more consistency on his way to compiling an OBP of .367. He's not a power hitter, more of a doubles hitter who will score 85-95 runs and drive in 80 runs or so. The Jays don't expect him to hit home runs; they just expect him to hit. His AVG, OBP, and SLG dropped off slightly in 2005 after his solid 2004 campaign. He needs to make contact behind Glaus, or pitchers won't bother showing Glaus anything good to hit.
6. DH Shea Hillenbrand - An All-Star in 2002 with Boston and in 2005 with Toronto, Hillenbrand is penciled in as the club's everyday DH and first option to replace Glaus and Overbay on off days. His 2005 OBP of .343 will be good enough in the six-hole, but what the Jays really want is 20 home runs and 95+ RBIs, like he had in 2003. With all the lineup protection he has, Hillenbrand is expected to produce a career year.
7. C Bengie Molina - The Angels' best hitter in the 2005 playoffs, Molina was unceremoniously dumped by Anaheim/LA after the season. He hit .295/.336/.446 in 2005 and that makes him a great pickup for the Jays. You could say he'll be playing 2006 with a chip on his shoulder, but it's probably more accurate to call that chip a boulder. His career fielding percentage of .994 is off the charts, and he already has won two Gold Gloves (2002 and 2003). He's the best catcher in the AL not named Varitek, and is capable of hitting 15 HRs and driving in 75 runs. If he does that, he could set himself up for a major free-agent payday.
8. RF Alexis Rios - He may improve with less pressure in the 8 spot, but he could also see time in the 2 and 9 spots. He's a servicable outfielder, and with the newcomers in town, Rios isn't expected to do much but catch the ball and score 70 runs or so. Any improvement over his previous two seasons would be welcomed, but he could see his playing time reduced if he regresses.
9. 2B Aaron Hill - His 2005 OBP of .342 indicates he could hit in the 1 or 2 spots in this order, if Adams and Johnson don't pull their weight. Hill's defense won't be anything close to that of Orlando Hudson (.328 OBP in 2005), who was jettisoned to Arizona in the Glaus trade.

Corey Koskie and Orlando Hudson are gone, and Eric Hinske, Frank Catalanotto, and Shea Hillenbrand will be filling different roles now that the Jays have imported some new stars. The mix of new players with established Jays could make for a great clubhouse atmosphere, or it could bring the house down.

Bench: Eric Hinske and Frank Catalanotto will be the utilitymen, with Gregg Zaun serving as a more-than-adequate switch-hitting backup catcher. John McDonald will be the backup infielder. Johnson and Rios could hit only against lefties, with Hinske and Catalanotto versus righties. Manager John Gibbons certainly has a lot of options.

Pitching: The rotation appears to be set, but will need a lot of things to go right for the Jays to win 95 games. Halladay is a bona fide ace...but Burnett has yet to win more than 12 games in a season. Will his potential translate to on-field success?
Starters
1. Roy Halladay - "Doc" is a Cy Young winner and the best pitcher in the AL East. He was on his way to another Cy award last year before a leg injury shut him down. If Halladay is healthy, Toronto has a streak-stopper, a dominant force on the mound, and most importantly, a deadly weapon to use against division rivals New York and Boston. He could win 20 games and strike out over 200 this year. Halladay's impressive career ERA of 3.70 (all games played in the AL) should be taken with a grain of salt: it's skewed by a 10.64 ERA in 67 innings pitched in 2000. Look out, AL East...Doc Halladay is back in town.
2. A. J. Burnett - You don't shell out $55 million over 5 years for a guy to win 12 games a year for you. The Jays want a 1-2 punch from Halladay and Burnett to rival the best in the business. If Burnett can win at least 15 games and strike out over 200 hitters, the duo could outperform their more highly discussed peers. However, the AL-NL switch theory must be taken into consideration. Burnett's career ERA of 3.73 will certainly rise by at least 0.5 due to the switch. Will he buckle under the pressure of high expectations, or flourish? The answer to that question will determine the Jays' success this season.
3. Ted Lilly - His best season was in 2004, when he went 12-10 with 168 Ks and a 4.06 ERA. He's been inconsistent throughout his career and probably isn't the #3 starter if Towers maintains his pace from 2005. He struggled with injuries in 2005 and is playing on a one-year deal in '06. Is he focused enough to improve on his 2004 success? If he wants to rake in the free agent dollars, he better be.
4. Josh Towers - In his first season starting over 30 games, his 13 wins and 3.71 ERA led the staff in 2005 after Halladay went down for the season with a leg injury. Towers won't be expected to carry the staff at all; but if he can repeat last season's production, the Jays can worry a little less about A.J. Burnett. His 2005 salary was $358,000. Burnett will get $11 million in 2006, despite never winning more than 12 games. Towers, a finesse pitcher, signed a $5.2 million, 2-year deal in November, which seems like chump change in today's market.
5. Gustavo Chacin - Chacin surprised a lot of people last year with 13 wins and an ERA of 3.72. His WHIP of 1.394 is a little high, but he deserves some slack after filling a large role in the rotation. The 3, 4, and 5 spots in this rotation really aren't set in stone; Chacin could rise to #3, with Towers at 4 and Lilly at 5.

Bullpen
Scott Schoeneweis, Justin Speier, Pete Walker, Jason Frasor, Vinnie Chulk, and Brandon League will combine to "shorten the game" for new closer B.J. Ryan. Miguel Batista is known for his inconsistency despite having great stuff; now Arizona can try to figure him out in his second stint in the desert. Ryan isn't even the best closer in his division (anyone ever hear of Mariano Rivera?), but is the highest paid. For the investment Toronto made in him, he needs to produce All-Star numbers. His fastball seems to be good enough to slam a lot of doors this summer.

Strengths: A much improved lineup, a solidified bench, and newly acquired franchise optimism should lead to at least 90 wins. Their starting pitching is better than New York's, and depending on the health of the Boston staff, could be the best in the division. Toronto is trying to return to its early-90s glory, and that will depend largely on the contributions of newcomers Burnett, Ryan, Glaus, Overbay, and Molina.

Weaknesses: Health concerns with Glaus, Burnett, and Halladay stem from recent injury history. The Jays need those three to stay healthy for most of the year. The bullpen is solid but isn't the most experienced, and the infield defense will suffer with the loss of "O-dog" Orlando Hudson.

X-Factors: Burnett, Overbay, and Ryan enter this season with enormous expectations. Can Burnett rise from mediocrity to greatness? Can Overbay increase his numbers and protect Glaus? Can Ryan repeat his 2005 performance, or will he regress? The Jays are counting on these three if they want to make the playoffs in 2006.

Outlook: The Jays should contend all season, but the talent doesn't seem to be enough to beat out New York and Boston over the course of an entire season. They will probably be in the thick of things come September, but ultimately will likely lose the Wild Card in a tight race with Boston, Minnesota, Cleveland, Anaheim, and Texas.

2006 Team Preview: Boston Red Sox

2006-02-16T15:42:00.000-05:00

Déjà vu: It’s the Pitching, Stupid

In 2004, the Boston Red Sox were an offensive juggernaut, scoring an AL-best 949 runs, led by Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Johnny Damon. Shrewd decision-making by Theo Epstein sent Nomar Garciaparra (and 2006 Cubs starting LF Matt Murton) packing to Chicago and brought Doug Mientkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera to Boston, along with Dave Roberts in a separate trade. The deals gave Boston better infield defense, and better team speed. Mientkiewicz caught the last out of the World Series; Cabrera’s spark was invaluable to the playoff run; and Dave Roberts stole the most important base in Boston baseball history. The trades helped Boston’s pitchers to succeed in tight spots, when looser defense might have spelled doom.

The Red Sox haven't won the AL East title since 1995.

Despite unprecedented success in knocking off the Yankees in the greatest comeback in baseball history, and maybe in sports history, and sweeping the Cardinals to win the title for the first time in almost 90 years, the Red Sox of 2004 had almost nothing in common with the Beaneaters of 2005. World Series heroes Keith Foulke and Curt Schilling (who sacrificed their 2005 seasons to win it all in 2004) were injured and ineffective for most of the season. Newcomer Matt Clement had a stellar first half but after being drilled in the head by a line drive, had a terrible second half. His contribution was not enough to offset the losses of Pedro and Lowe. The Red Sox’ pitching staff was inconsistent at best, and the bullpen was the worst in the AL (5.15 ERA). The team ERA of 4.74 was 11th in the AL (Keith Foulke had a 5.91 ERA for the year). The infield defense, with Renteria replacing Cabrera and with Mientkiewicz gone, was lacking. The Sox squeezed into the playoffs and were quickly dismissed by a much better Chicago team.

So what did the Boston brass do for 2006? They broke out the cookie cutter from 2004 and built a team around pitching and defense. The Red Sox have the deepest rotation outside of Chicago’s South Side, and it should carry them to another playoff appearance. The losses of Damon, Renteria, and Bill Mueller were offset by the arrivals of Crisp, Gonzalez, Lowell, Beckett, and Loretta.

Lineup: It’s been widely reported that the Red Sox offensive machine is officially dead now that the Idiots have left town. The lineup card says otherwise:

1. 1B Kevin Youkilis – He’s expected to have an OBP of .400. He doesn’t have to hit home runs, he just has to work the count and get on base. In his first chance at an everyday job, expect the 27-year old to make Francona give him 400+ ABs. In 2005, he averaged 4.68 pitches per AB, best on the club. If he can make that stat translate over a full season, he'll be one of the best OBP men in the game.
2. 2B Mark Loretta – Loretta slipped from his All-Star form in 2005, due to multiple injuries. He’s a major upgrade over Mark Bellhorn, both offensively and defensively, and will be part of one of the AL’s best double-play combinations (career .986 fielding percentage). If he's healthy, he should hit 15 HRs, drive in 75 runs, and hit over .300. Not too shabby for your 2B.
3. DH David Ortiz – Boy, the Twins must feel silly. Ortiz-Ramirez is the strongest, and most deadly, 1-2 punch in the game. 40 homers and 130 RBIs are a given. An MVP award would have been nice, but Papi can just flash that ring instead. Expect .300/.400/.600 out of the AL's most feared hitter.
4. LF Manny Ramirez – Manny being Manny? Whatever. He’ll still club 40 dingers, knock in 130, and hit .300. Without a doubt, the best overall hitter in the game. His defense is often the butt of jokes, but isn't as bad as advertised. Trading him would have been a colossal mistake.
5. C Jason Varitek – Clearly, the Gold Glover is the best all-around catcher in MLB. He’s the team captain, a clubhouse leader, and a master at calling games. His 20 HRs and 75 RBIs don’t hurt either. Josh Beckett and the other young hurlers should thrive under Varitek’s leadership.
6. RF Trot Nixon – The longest-tenured member of the Red Sox (minor league plus major league service time), Nixon might be playing his final season guarding Pesky’s Pole. His numbers are usually solid for a #6 hitter, but his weakness against lefthanders means Francona will be forced to keep five outfielders. Nixon has battled injuries the past couple of seasons and really needs to put together a 450 or 500-at bat season. If he does, he should hit .280/.380/.500, taking pressure off of Crisp.
7. 3B Mike Lowell – A Gold Glove. A World Series ring. Mike Lowell has nothing to prove, right? Wrong. That dismal 2005 campaign (.236/.298/.360) will be wiped clean if Lowell starts pounding hits off of the Monster.
8. CF Coco Crisp – Will he bat first? Second? Or eighth? It really doesn’t matter, because for as much as the media coronated Crisp as the Sox’ leadoff man, the Boston front office and Francona have been planning to put Youkilis at the top since Damon skipped town. All he has to do is catch the ball and make contact. In his three full MLB seasons, most of Crisps' stats have gone up each year, including AB, R, H, 2B, HR, BB, TB, OBP, and SLG. And at age 26, he could be ready to announce his arrival to the baseball gods.
9. SS Alex Gonzalez – One of the best defensive shortstops in baseball (career .968 fielding percentage). His offensive contribution means nothing to this team, but he has the ability to hit 10 or more homers. He could surprise a lot of pitchers in the 9-slot. The Renteria experiment lasted just one season, and Gonzalez is expected to be a significant defensive upgrade.

If not for the Yankees assembling a modern-day Murderer’s Row (see yesterday’s post), the Red Sox lineup would seem much more fearsome. They may not score 900 runs, but with their pitching, they may not have to. There's still a lot of uncertainty about this lineup configuration, with the 1, 2, 8, and 9 spots likely to change frequently until Francona finds the right mix.

Bench: This group is a little bit of old, a little bit of new, and a lot of defense and hustle. Too bad they can’t hit very well. Newbies J.T. Snow and Josh Bard join a crowded bench populated by Tony Graffanino, Alex Cora, rookies Dustin Pedroia and Adam Stern, and Gabe Kapler. Will Pedroia make the team, and will Graffanino be traded? Is Kapler coming back? If an everyday player goes down with a major injury (Nixon?), the Sox will have to shuffle this deck and find another bat from outside the organization.

Pitching: While the Yankee offense gets all the attention, the Boston pitching staff is as imposing as any rotation in baseball. The problem is, the top three starters present serious health and consistency issues. David Wells wants to be traded, but will he be? His home/away splits in 2005 (8-1, 3.07 at home / 7-6, 5.56 on the road) indicate the Sox will only trade him if they get something worthwhile in return.

Starters
1. Curt Schilling: Two World Series rings already on his hand, Schill is motivated to get a third. He’s an absolute bulldog, and is a radar lock to win at least 15 games in 2006, as long as his ankle holds up. He could even win 20. That ankle is a huge if, however. His career ERA of 3.40 and career WHIP of 1.126 would be a welcome addition to the 2006 staff.
2. Josh Beckett: Phenom or phony? Beckett was a Yankee Killer in 2003, but has suffered through chronic blister and shoulder problems since. He has a 3.46 career ERA, but has never pitched more than 179 innings. His medical records are probably scarier than they should be, but his potential is equally scary. The last Red Sox pitcher to average close to 9 Ks per 9 innings at this young an age? Some guy named Clemens.
3. Matt Clement: A classic case for the NL-AL switch theory. Clement’s ERA went from 3.68 in 181 innings in 2004 with the Cubs to 4.57 in 191 innings in 2005 with the Red Sox. He’s still just 31 years old, and has a plus fastball mixed with some “controlled wildness.” If he succeeds, will the Sox trade him and give his spot to Arroyo? If he fails, will the Sox trade him and give his spot to Arroyo?
4. Tim Wakefield: The best Red Sox pitcher in 2005, (16-12, 225 innings, 151 Ks were tops in the rotation) Wakefield is the type of guy who doesn’t care about accolades. He’s the consummate team player and is guaranteed to stay in the starting rotation in Boston. The departure of personal catcher/knuckleball specialist Doug Mirabelli will have an impact, but Wakefield should still eat up innings and frustrate hitters with the flutterball.
5. David Wells: See above home/away splits. The Red Sox would be crazy to trade him, right? Well, Boomer wants to play out West, and he is going to be 43 in May. Perhaps he’s had his best season as a Red Sox already.
6. Bronson Arroyo: Signed a three-year, “hometown discount” deal this offseason. He thinks the deal is a sign of his loyalty…but will the Sox reciprocate? His relatively low salary, combined with a hot start to 2006, would make him a highly-sought trade option. His ERA and WHIP are trending upwards (ERA of 4.03, 4.51 in 2004, 2005; WHIP of 1.22, 1.30 in 2004, 2005), so he needs to be very selective with his off-speed pitches.
7. Jon Papelbon: Will start 2006 in the bullpen, but his future is in the rotation. If Wells, Clement, or Arroyo is traded, Papelbon will likely take his place behind Schilling, Beckett, and Wakefield.

Bullpen:

The AL’s worst bullpen in 2005 was blown up. Newcomers David Riske, Julian Tavarez, and Rudy Seanez will be expected to set up for Mike Timlin and Keith Foulke. Lenny DiNardo replaces Mike Myers as the lefty specialist, with Papelbon throwing serious heat in the 'pen if he doesn’t crack the rotation. Untouchable prospect Manny Delcarmen and future closer Craig Hansen will likely start the season in AAA, but will contribute down the stretch. Anything would be better than last year’s group, and Boston thinks they’ve made a major upgrade here. Results will tell us if they’re right.

Strengths: Pitching, offensive cohesion, team makeup. Theo Epstein has assembled a team of proven winners, and has built a pitching staff designed to withstand the Yankee onslaught. It's a long way to go between now and July 31, and any one of three starters could be dealt.
Weaknesses: Health risks, bullpen, starter consistency, outfield corner defense, team speed. Will Schilling and Foulke return to form? Will the new bullpen thrive or fold? Will Manny and Trot do a servicable job, or will they force Crisp into running himself ragged? Who will steal bases? Will the starters stay healthy?
X-Factors: Schilling, Foulke, Youkilis, Crisp. Youkilis is expected to produce right away, and if he wants to stay in the bigs, he'll need to (this is the final year of Youkilis' minor-league option eligibility). A midseason trade of Nixon and Clement for Bobby Abreu could change everything. Crisp looks to be on the verge of a breakout season offensively. If Schilling and Foulke return to 2004 form, the Red Sox will contend for the AL pennant.
Outlook: The Sox have their sights on another World Championship, but they might not even win their division. If they want the Wild Card, it's going to be a long road. Health is a major question for this club, from top to bottom, and that's never a good sign. The Sox are hoping that the injury-plagued 2005 campaign was a fluke, not a trend. If they can stay healthy, they'll be playing in October.

2006 Team Preview: New York Yankees

2006-02-15T09:57:00.000-05:00

Another Murderer's Row?
-by Josh Dembowitz

The 2005-2006 offseason was an exciting one for New York, primarily because the Yanks were able to solve their biggest quandary while seriously weakening their archrival Red Sox with the signing of CF Johnny Damon to a four-year deal. The Yankees enter the 2006 season with many questions, but the heart of their lineup is not among them. Yankee fans, as well as all other baseball fans, are anxiously awaiting the first game of the season, when the vaunted lineup will take the field together for the first time. However, before they are crowned champions, many questions remain.

Can the Yankees capture another division title?

Lineup: The team has the deepest top-to-bottom lineup in the game. Here is a quick run-through:
1. CF Johnny Damon- He'll easily match his 2005 production (.366 OBP, 10 HR, 76 RBI, 18 SB) in NY. Expect an increase in his runs and power stats, due to the small dimensions of Yankee Stadium. His job is to get on base: the rest of the lineup will knock him in.
2. SS Derek Jeter- The heart and soul of the team, specifically for all of the intangibles he brings to the table. His numbers don't wow you (.389-19-70-14 SB, 122 Runs), but he is the ideal No. 2 hitter, and always comes through in the clutch.
3. RF Gary Sheffield- His numbers declined slightly, but the slugger is still a force to be reckoned with (.891 OPS, 34 HR, 123 RBI). He should see more guys on base and a few more pitches to hit this year after the addition of Damon.
4. 3B Alex Rodriguez- The best overall player in the game, his numbers were unbelievable last year (1.031 OPS, 48 HR, 130 RBI, 124 R). Expect more of the same this season.
5. LF Hideki Matsui- One of the ugliest players (ever), Matsui had another stellar '05 campaign. There is no reason to expect anything less. He creeps up on you a little bit, but the production is always there at the end of the year.
6. C Jorge Posada- The 34-year old catcher has been around forever, and his numbers are beginning to decline. That being said, they could rebound this season with a better supporting cast, and he remains one of the top hitting catchers in the game.
7. 1B/DH Jason Giambi- Balco Boy had a ridiculous comeback season (.975 OPS, 32 HR, 87 RBI). He appears to be close to his pre-Balco, pre-tumor form, without many of the distractions that have plagued him over the past two seasons.
8. DH Bernie Williams- This should be the swan song for Bernie, a consummate professional who has contributed so much to the club, dating back to their 1996 World Series squad. His numbers have been steadily declining the past three seasons, but they may go back up slightly with the distraction of playing the field off his chest. He can focus on what he does best: hitting. Don't expect an All-Star campaign from the 37-year-old, but let's hope he goes out with more than a whimper.
9. 2B Robinson Cano- The sophomore is coming off an impressive rookie year. While he is terrible with the leather, he is just 23 years old and should improve both with the glove and at the plate. His numbers are solid for a No. 2 hitter, and amazing for a Number 9 hitter (.320 OBP, 14 HR, 62 RBIs in 132 games). He is also a doubles machine, with 34 last season.

Bench: The bench is pretty weak, with Miguel Cairo the only notable player. Promising youngster Melky Cabrera could get some ABs if Williams falters.

Pitching
Starters
1. Randy Johnson- The 42-year-old flamethrower can still bring the heat (211 Ks in 207 IP), and had a solid 17-8 campaign, but his ERA was up more than a run (3.79). Chronic back problems could sideline the Big Unit once more, and there is always the lingering issue of how much more his shoulder/elbow can take of the 100 mph heat.
2. Mike Mussina- Moose is coming off two straight dreadful campaigns, and it is safe to say that he is on the downside of his illustrious career. He's no longer a solid strikeout guy, and his ERA is mediocre at best (4.41 in 2005, 4.59 in 2004). He has had injury problems as well, and nobody knows how much longer he will hold up.
The other three rotation spots are up for grabs, between:
1. Shawn Chacon- The righty mysteriously blossomed after leaving Colorado, going 7-3 after a mid-season trade brought him to the Big Apple. If he shows the stuff he had last year, he should win a spot.
2. Chien-Ming Wang- The almost-26-year-old flashed some serious potential as a rookie (8-5, 4.02 ERA in 17 starts), but he was shut down with shoulder problems for about two months. Before the injury, he was 6-3 with a 3.89 ERA, and he was effective in a playoff starts for the squad. He appears to have the inside track for another starting role.
3. Carl Pavano- Everything went wrong for the last offseason's prized acquisition- injuries and ineffectiveness cost the $40 million man dearly. He faces a battle for the final spot, but could be a pleasant surprise if he returns to 2004 form.
4. Jaret Wright- Injuries took their toll on the former Indian ace, and he was terrible when healthy (5-5, with a 6.08 ERA). He looks to be facing an uphill battle for a starting role. His amazing 2004 campaign looks to be a fluke rather than what we should expect.
5. Aaron Small- The wild card in the mix, the former journeyman was sizzling for the Yanks last season. They still do not appear to trust him, but it will be hard to ignore him if he pitches like last season (10-0, 3.20 ERA). More likely, he will be a long man forced to step up when a starter goes down.

Bullpen:
It appears to be far deeper than in years past, despite the loss of Tom Gordon to the Phillies. The team still has the best closer ever in Mariano Rivera. They also may have actually improved their setup man by bringing in Kyle Farnsworth. He has closing experience and the flamethrower was brilliant for the Braves last season. He seems to have finally put it all together. The club also has rubber-armed Tanyon Sturtze (64 appearances), and could have Octavio Dotel at some point as well. The club finally has a lefty specialist in submariner Mike Myers. Other candidates for bullpen spots include Ron Villone and Scott Proctor.

Strengths: The lineup is the best in baseball, and could challenge the all-time runs and home run records. Pitchers cannot pitch around any of the sluggers, because the next guy up is just as dangerous. If healthy, Randy Johnson is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game, and the bullpen is pretty solid. If the Yanks are winning going into the ninth inning, it is pretty much over due to the presence of Mo.

Weaknesses: The team defense is subpar at many positions, especially 2B and CF. Damon has one of the worst throwing arms in the bigs, a big problem when he is catching balls out on the warning track in dead center. More importantly, every starter has questions marks, due to age, injuries, or ineffectiveness. Do Johnson and Mussina have one more good year left in the tank? Can Wright and Pavano rebound and stay healthy? Is Wang okay? Were the 2005 campaigns of Chacon and Small flukes or a sign of things to come? In the end, the answers to these questions should go a long way towards determining the team's fate.

X-Factors: Mussina and Pavano. If Moose can pitch like he did every year but the last two, the team should have two legitimate aces to throw out there come October. If Pavano pitches like he did in his walk year, the club will have another dependable, oftentimes brilliant pitcher. He has electric stuff: he has to put it all together again.

Outlook: This year will be a litmus test for all baseball squads. Can the Yanks disprove the old adage that pitching wins championships? Can the lineup carry the squad not just through the season but through the playoffs as well? Personally, I think the starters do not have to be much more than decent. The lineup will give tremendous run support to the starters, day in and day out. The club should win the AL East with a 100-win campaign. Whether they can thrive in the playoffs remains to be seen, but with this lineup, anything's possible.

Spring Has Sprung!

2006-02-13T15:45:00.000-05:00

This week, from the Cactus League to the Grapefruit League, Major League Baseball players are getting ready to return to work. Pitchers and catchers report this week, with teams starting up their workouts from mid-week to week-end. Check the previous post for a link to each team's schedule. It might be tough for all of us in cold-weather climates, but can't you smell the freshly cut grass? Feel that warm Florida air? Ahh, I'm there.

Baseball Universe is going to start the 2006 season with team previews. Each day, we'll provide a detailed breakdown of a different MLB club, starting with our pick for division winner. When we're finished, we should be right around Opening Day, when we'll reveal our playoff predictions. It should be fun to look back during the World Series and laugh at the predictions, but isn't laughing at ourselves what baseball is all about? Get ready for the 2006 season, folks...it is upon us.

Guillen Ruffles Daley's Feathers

2006-02-10T09:53:00.000-05:00

Ozzie Guillen, manager of the World Champion Chicago White Sox and a recently naturalized American citizen, will be vacationing with his family in the Dominican Republic on Monday, February 13th. Meanwhile, the rest of the White Sox, including owner Jerry Reinsdorf and GM Kenny Williams, will be in Washington, D.C., visiting with the President for the traditional champion's visit to the White House. Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley is not entertained by the South Side skipper's sidestep: "I don't know who you are," he said. "Maybe you think you're too important. I think Ozzie is on vacation or something. I mean, that is up to him. But you don't realize how precious that is, and very few Americans have ever been in the White House. To me, that is a privilege for anyone to be." (ChicagoSports.com)

How could Ozzie say no to this face? Could you?

But Guillen won't be the only AWOL member of the World Series champs. Japanese second baseman Tadahito Iguchi is receving an honor in his hometown in Japan, while speedy leftfielder Scott Podsednik will be on his honeymoon. A White Sox spokesman claims that Guillen simply wants some time off with his family before the start of Spring Training. The manager has had quite the busy off-season, including a tour of his native Venezuela with the World Series trophy, accompanied by President Hugo Chavez and a private plane.

Assuming Guillen isn't shirking the trip for political reasons, and assuming Mayor Daley was being characteristically dramatic, this wouldn't be the first time a Chicago sports icon took some heat for declining an invite to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. In 1991, after the first of six championships, the Chicago Bulls were invited to the White House by President George Bush Sr. Michael Jordan, the most beloved athlete in Chicago sports history, had this to say when asked why he wouldn't be attending: "I don't care who the president is," he declared. "It's none of your business. If you want to ask me what I did, I don't have to tell you. I have to live my life the way I want to live it." (ChicagoSports.com)

Quick Hits

-A jury has ruled in favor of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in NameGate. The jury indicated that the Angels did not violate their contract with the City of Anaheim. An additional hearing could force the name change back to Anaheim Angels, but that is unlikely.

-Pitchers and catchers report next week, and not a moment too soon.

-Happy Birthday to Hall of Famer Herb Pennock, and to one of my childhood favorites, Lenny "Nails" Dykstra.

New Lease on Life

2006-02-07T12:55:00.000-05:00

Carl Pohlad, owner of the Minnesota Twins, scored a major victory on Monday, when a Hennepin County District Court judge ruled that the Twins are not under obligation to a long-term lease. After the 2006 season, the Twins are free to move wherever they please. The judge indicated that in fact, the Twins have not had a lease agreement since 2003, and since then have been operating on a year-to-year basis with the Metrodome.

The Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis, MN

Amidst the Expos/Nationals debacle, and the constant rumblings in Miami, the Twins have been largely forgotten. But for 10 years, the Twins have been trying to put together a plan that keeps the team in Minnesota, playing in a state-of-the-art baseball stadium. The estimated stadium cost is above $500 million and will likely increase as more time passes. Minnesotans have already expressed reluctance for financing a stadium. How will they feel when the team moves because it doesn't have a proper place to play?

Quick Hits

-The Caribbean Series is coming to a close, with Venezuela squaring off against the Dominican Republic. Looks like a WBC final-round preview.

-Bengie Molina finally signed with the Blue Jays, for $5 million over one year. The contract calls for $4.5 million in 2006 and a $500,000 buyout in 2007. Or, Toronto could pick up a $7.5 million mutual option for 2007, bringing the two-year potential value of the deal to $12 million. I guess that $18 million, 3-year deal from the Mets was too insulting.

Baby Steps

2006-02-02T17:45:00.000-05:00

The Washington D.C. City Council will meet on Tuesday to vote on a proposed new lease between the city and the Nationals. The lease will allow the Nationals to pay half their rent if a new stadium isn't ready for 2008 (the original lease expires in 2007). In the city of spin, any progress is a positive. However, council members are concerned about the proposed costs for the construction of a new, baseball-only stadium for the Nats, which could color Tuesday's vote.

RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C.

Looking for someone to blame? Where do we start? I'd appreciate feedback from Beltway readers on this issue, but from the outside this stinks of MLB dragging its feet for the umpteenth time. First, they were going to contract the Expos. Then they bought the Expos. Then they moved the Expos, even though D.C. didn't have anything closely resembling a baseball stadium. Now, where is MLB in all of this? The D.C. Council and the Mayor seem to be taking all of the heat. Why isn't Bud Selig getting more flak for this? He's done a great number of things to make MLB a multi-billion dollar industry, but the Expos/Nationals fiasco is a dark cloud above his legacy. The Nats need an owner. Now.

The Nationals have zero chance to compete with the Phillies, Braves, and Mets if they don't get a new stadium, and fast. The anticipated revenue stream from a new stadium is probably the only thing keeping the franchise from going under. It's a shock that the Nats were able to be as competitive as they were last year. This year? No chance they make the playoffs. And that's not right, because those players deserve a level playing field.

The Bizarre Tale of Ugueth Urbina

2006-02-01T15:33:00.000-05:00

Free agent relief pitcher Ugueth Urbina, who most recently played for the Philadelphia Phillies and Detroit Tigers in 2005, won't be appearing at your favorite team's spring training complex in Florida or Arizona this month. That's because he's been in jail in Venezuela since October.

Free agent RP Ugueth Urbina, now awaiting his attempted murder trial in Venezuela

Urbina is accused of attacking five men with a machete and lighter fluid on the night of October 15, 2005. The alleged incident occurred at Urbina's family ranch in Venezuela, roughly 25 miles south of the capital city of Caracas. Urbina denies the charges against him, and on Friday January 27, his request to be released from jail was denied. Although Urbina claims to have no involvement in the attacks and believes he is being extorted due to his fame and fortune as a MLB player, his accusers tell a different story (quote courtesy of ESPN.com): "'What we want is justice, for him to pay with jail time,' said Ricardo Osal, who needed 300 stitches to close wounds on his back and another 150 to repair severed tendons in his hands. 'We're not looking for any type of financial arrangement. Nothing that has anything to do with money. We don't want them to offer us any money and we're not asking them for any money.'"

The 31-year old reliever, who won a World Series ring with the Florida Marlins in 2003 and who has played for Montreal, Boston, Texas, Florida, Detroit, and Philadelphia, turns 32 on February 15. He would have been one of the hottest commodities on the free-agent market, due to his age, postseason experience, and penchant for making right-handed hitters look foolish. Instead, he sits in a jail cell in his homeland. His trial date has not been set, but he faces up to 20 years in prison for the four charges against him.

It's Peanut Butter Jelly Fantasy Baseball Time!

2006-01-30T13:41:00.000-05:00

With pitchers and catchers reporting in about two weeks, Spring Training is almost here. And you know what that means...fantasy baseball is back! For those of you who are interested, I've linked the 2006 fantasy baseball player rankings from ESPN.com's Eric Karabell. He's usually pretty clever, though, just like in the real game, fantasy baseball is almost completely unpredictable.

Having said that, 2006 should be a huge year for hitters. The starting pitching depth is just not there, which sheds some light on one of the major differences between real life baseball and fantasyland baseball. If you were building a real MLB team, can you imagine your top five or six players being hitters? You'd never make the playoffs. But in fantasy, your pitchers are exposed by their teams' run production and bullpen quality.

Twins' ace Johan Santana will work his black magic again in 2006, but can other pitchers come close to his production?

I'm pretty excited about this upcoming season, with the hitting numbers really coming into focus now that the steroid testing program has been in place for about a full year. There will be a few raised eyebrows and some potential HgH-induced swells, but overall I think the numbers have come back to realistic levels. It's typical to expect to see guys like Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Mark Teixeira hit 40+ HRs and 120+ RBIs, but that's going to be the top of the stat pile. Cecil Fielder's 51 HRs in 1990 look pretty impressive now, and speaking of Fielder, his son Prince will be breaking in with the Brewers in 2006.

Personally, I'm not big on drafting rookies. Last year I got a great year out of Chase Utley and a great half a year out of Ryan Howard, but I was lucky. Typically, your rookie/potential/breakout pick should wait until you have at least six established hitters, two starters, and a closer. Some fantasy gurus say you should wait even longer than that. Just to show how crazy your draft is going to look at the end of this upcoming season, consider this. In 2004, Dontrelle Willis and Roy Halladay had subpar seasons (by their standards). This made the pitchers' perceived value drop in my 2005 draft, and I got Halladay in Round 10 and Willis in Round 20.

So, you never know. The only sure thing at pitcher is Johan Santana, who should be a top 12 pick in every draft. Lots of people will try to draft guys like Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez in the early rounds. I would be very careful about overvaluing these two guys, though King Felix might have 15 wins and 200+ strikeouts when the season ends. Ultimately, fantasy baseball is about having fun, so draft whomever you'd like. But if you want to win, go for value over glitz, veterans over rookies, and hitters over pitchers. And oh, don't be afraid to take a chance.

Phils-Tribe Trade Sign of Things to Come?

2006-01-27T16:35:00.000-05:00

A trade that's been agreed to, but isn't finalized, between the Phillies and Indians will send OF Jason Michaels to Cleveland for lefty RP Arthur Rhodes. Throughout this week, we've been told that the Michaels-Rhodes swap would only go down if Cleveland were going to part with Coco Crisp. So, it may be safe to assume that the Coco Crisp deal is back on.

RP Arthur Rhodes will be setting up for Tom Gordon in Philadelphia this season.

But based on the back-and-forth we've seen on this deal, no assumption is safe. So, until we get a press conference from Boston or Cleveland, your guess is as good as mine. The Phillies needed bullpen help anyway, regardless of whether Cleveland was going to deal Crisp. The Phillies were going to shop Michaels in March if they couldn't send him to Cleveland. So that alone could tell us that maybe this trade is just what it looks like: a fourth outfielder being traded for an aging lefty reliever.

This offseason, seemingly more so than in years past, there have been a lot of deals leaked to the media before they were finalized. In fact, that's one reason why the Crisp deal is taking so long; Boston leaked the deal and Cleveland was miffed. Assuming the Rhodes-Michaels trade goes through, the domino effect will look something like this:

Shane Victorino takes Michaels' spot as the Phillies' 4th outfielder
Arthur Rhodes becomes the Phillies' setup man in front of new closer Tom Gordon
Ryan Madson, a solid setup man for Billy Wagner but a sensation as a starter in the minors, should be the favorite to get the Phillies' #5 starter position during Spring Training
Michaels, we assume, becomes Cleveland's everyday LF, with Crisp moving on to Boston
Marte goes to Cleveland for Crisp

There will definitely be other players involved in the Crisp-Marte trade (if it's finalized, or if it's back on at all). Those players could include Josh Bard, Kelly Shoppach, David Riske, Guillermo Mota, and prospects.

I did hear some rumors earlier this week about an Indians-Reds-Red Sox swap that would send Crisp to Boston, Austin Kearns to Cleveland, and Matt Clement to Cincinnati, but apparently the Reds and Indians weren't high on the deal. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been shopping Clement for months but with no takers. It's quite possible that if he can establish himself in the first three months, Clement will be traded in July (if not sooner).

Have a great weekend folks, we'll hopefully have some resolution on Monday.

Thomas Looks to Put Hurt on AL West

2006-01-26T11:37:00.000-05:00

Former Chicago White Sox first baseman/designated hitter Frank Thomas has found a new home after 16 seasons on the South Side. The Big Hurt and the Oakland A's have agreed to a one-year, incentive-laden deal that could be worth up to $3.1 million. If Thomas can stay healthy (that record was broken long ago), the A's will have a devastating right-handed power bat to protect Eric Chavez, and at the relative bargain price of anywhere from $500K to $3.1 million. Any way this story is spun, Oakland GM Billy Beane has to look pretty smart. It was only in 2003 that Thomas hit 42 home runs (that was the last year the A's made the playoffs).

Frank Thomas will be swinging in Oakland in 2006

It's rare to see players in MLB, or any professional sport, stay with one franchise for their entire career. Thomas and his cosmic mate, Jeff Bagwell, remind us of the days before Curt Flood challenged the reserve clause (see archived post), when player movement was the exception rather than the rule. Now both players, the definition of White Sox and Astros baseball, have been pushed out of town because of their injuries. Thomas will try to resurrect his career in Oakland, while Bagwell insists on reporting to Astros camp despite the team actively lobbying for his retirement. Bagwell doesn't want to play anywhere else, and the Astros don't want him. Expect this story to get worse before it gets better.

Back to the Big Hurt. Thomas, who hit 12 home runs in just 105 at-bats last year in another injury-riddled campaign, will presumably add thunder to one of the AL's more inconsistent lineups in 2005 (2nd in ABs, 9th in HRs, 10th in Hits, 10th in SLG, 11th in AVG, but 5th in OBP and 6th in Runs). To protect themselves from committing too much to a guy whose left foot is more metal than bone, the A's have devised an interesting incentive structure for Thomas' contract:

$1.4 million in roster bonuses if he is on the active roster or not on the DL related to a left foot injury: $325,000 each on May 1 and June 15, and $375,000 each on July 15 and Aug. 15
$1.2 million in performance bonuses: $200,000 each for increments of 50 plate appearances (from 300 to 550 PAs)

The A's are satisfied with Thomas' physical condition, which has slowed his pursuit of 500 home runs considerably. Thomas is still just 52 dingers shy of 500, and at age 37, he's a good bet to retire with the Hall of Fame Gold Welcome Card (500 HRs without steroids) intact. So, the A's will roll the dice on Thomas and hope they can squeeze 35 homers or so out of him. It's a good day for Billy Beane and Oakland A's fans, and a bittersweet one for White Sox fans.

Red Sox, Indians, Phillies Hang In Balance

2006-01-25T13:41:00.000-05:00

With the potential Coco Crisp-Andy Marte deal on hold because of Guillermo Mota's health, the Red Sox and Indians will try to work out a revised trade scenario. Until they do, I thought we could have a little fun with numbers today.

I want you all to do me a favor, and look at the following stat lines from 2005. Can you tell me, without leaving the page, who is Player 1 and who is Player 2?

(MLB 2005) G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
(Player 1) 145 594 86 178 42 4 16 69 15 .300 .345 .465
(Player 2) 148 624 117 197 35 6 10 75 18 .316 .366 .439

Now, whether or not you could tell the difference, do you think that one of these players is worth more money than the other player? What if you knew the age, salary, and free agency year of the players, would that help?

Age, 4-year salary, free agency year, age in free agency year:
-Player 1: 26, $20 million, 2009, 30
-Player 2: 32, $52 million, 2009, 36

You probably know by now, but just in case...

Player 1
Player 2

Deconstructing Barry

2006-01-24T10:36:00.000-05:00

This is a revised edition of Tuesday morning’s “Deconstructing Barry.” I didn’t get the message across the way I wanted to, so I hope you read the new version:

You'd be hard-pressed to find, in professional sports, a more enigmatic athlete than Barry Bonds. He's one of the greatest players in baseball history, the only member of the 500/500 club, and one of three members of the 700-HR club. He is beloved by a large portion of the San Francisco Bay Area. But for others there, and for most of the rest of the nation, Barry Bonds is a selfish, acerbic personality who tries to shut everyone out even as his career accomplishments force everyone in.

Giants OF Barry Bonds, in the halcyon days of his youth with the Pirates.

Yesterday, as following the link will show you, Bonds announced on his website that he won't be playing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Now by itself, this isn't really a big blow to the U.S. squad's chances of winning the tournament. The Dominicans would have been hard to beat even with Bonds. But Barry's change of heart could lead to a slew of similar feelings from players claiming sore groins or other such injuries.

But back to Barry. We talk so much about “Manny being Manny.” Why haven't we talked more about "Barry being Barry?" As he has decreased the space between himself and Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron on the all-time home run list, Bonds has become increasingly volatile and petulant. Remember last year's press conference where he had his son in the interview with him, in Arizona? Here’s a quote to refresh your memory: "You [the media] wanted me to jump off a bridge, and I finally did. You finally brought me and my family down...So now go pick a different person." (source widely attributed) What?

Wouldn’t it be nice if the guy who was on the verge of breaking the most treasured record in American sport were a bit sunnier? Bonds has a right to his feelings and opinions, just like anyone. But Barry Bonds is not anyone; he's a national icon. He's a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but his credentials will be scrutinized due to his alleged steroid use. In 2011 or 2012, whatever year is the first of Bonds' eligibility for the Hall of Fame, will he hold it against us if we ask the important questions regarding his records? Shouldn’t there at least be a debate?

Barry Bonds is sometimes called a liar and a cheater. He gets mad when he hears that, but he doesn’t inspire much confidence. He used steroids and then claimed (before a Grand Jury) he didn't know what they were. Bonds, one of the most successful athletes in professional sports history, who is known for having personal trainers and strength coaches while his teammates use team coaches, didn't know exactly what he was putting in his body. Huh?

Beyond that slight detail, Barry, who can’t help but point out his relationship with Willie Mays and other legends, is making a lot of noise about the home run record. He’s not saying it directly, but what does this mean? : “I owe it to the Giants organization, my teammates, and most of all to the fans of San Francisco to give 100 percent this season.” (barrybonds.com)

The home run record doesn't belong to anyone. Not Ruth, not Aaron, and certainly not Bonds. The home run record belongs to the fans. As he tries to break the record, Bonds is increasingly defensive. From barrybonds.com: "I assure you, my decision was not an easy one, but based on my circumstances, I had to put my health and my team first." If he really is concerned about his health, is he going to sit out Spring Training? Will he spend March on the golf course, or in the weight room? Wouldn’t three at bats as DH in a WBC game be less taxing than playing left field in the Cactus League?

Bonds says he has his team’s best interests at heart, but what he really cares about is himself and how his career will be viewed once he's gone. He wants that record more than anything, because it will set him apart from every other player who has picked up a bat. Winning a World Series won’t do that. He played a great Series in 2002, but it wasn’t enough to win. If he doesn’t break the record, and he hasn’t won the World Series, he will always be remembered for not being able to finish what he started.

If he loves the Giants and their fans so much, will he keep playing in 2007, as a designated hitter in the AL, if he can't get the record in 2006? When he does break Aaron's record of 755, and I think he will, it will be a sad day for anyone who thinks baseball should be about having fun.

What will he say when he breaks the record? Will passing Aaron just make him worse? And before putting the proverbial cart before its horse, what will he be like in April as he tries for those seven home runs to pass the Babe? And then all season as he gains on Aaron?

Barry Bonds should be one of the most respected athletes in America for his perseverance and his accomplishments. Instead, he bludgeons his fans with his melodrama, his self-importance, to the point where he has created a legion of baseball fans who hate him. Barry Bonds is, hands down, one of the greatest players ever to put on a baseball uniform. But he is one of the worst personalities in sports history, and I'll never truly know why he chose to do this to himself.

Crisp Deal Done? Not So Fast

2006-01-23T12:00:00.000-05:00

This morning, the Boston Globe is reporting that the Red Sox have agreed in principle to a deal with Cleveland. The Indians will send OF Coco Crisp, RP David Riske, and C Josh Bard to Boston in exchange for 3B Andy Marte, RP Guillermo Mota, and C Kelly Shoppach. The deal is dependent on all players passing physicals and the Indians landing another outfielder (as reported here yesterday, probably the Phillies' Jason Michaels).

New Red Sox CF Coco Crisp

However, ESPN.com senior writer Buster Olney reports that the deal is contradicted by a similar deal reported by the Boston Herald. The Herald reports that Jason Michaels will go to Cleveland for Arthur Rhodes, and also that Riske is not a part of the deal. Whatever happens over the next week to get this deal done, the bottom line is that Coco Crisp will be playing centerfield for Boston and that Andy Marte is going to be an Indian. Also as an addendum to this deal, as reported yesterday, free-agent SS Alex Gonzalez will sign with Boston.

The deal won't become official until the end of the week, but based on that the Globe, the Herald, and Gammons have said, this deal took so long to configure that they won't just let it die if Mota is hurt or if the Indians can't land Michaels. Typically, the Globe is more reliable than the Herald; in addition, the Herald story reports that Riske was on the Reds, when he in fact was an Indian last year and just signed a new deal with Cleveland last week.

Interestingly enough, Coco Crisp's 2005 numbers are eerily similar to those of Johnny Damon. Crisp is estimated to make $20 million over the next four years, or about $32 million less than Damon will get. Crisp is 26, Damon is 32.

The Traveling Bensons

2006-01-22T08:55:00.000-05:00

The Kris & Anna Benson Variety Hour will now be airing every fifth day in the greater Baltimore area. The Mets have agreed to send right-handed starting pitcher Kris Benson to the Baltimore Orioles for lefty reliever Jorge Julio and RHP John Maine. After months of speculation, the New York Mets finally pulled the trigger on a deal to ship Benson out of town. This deal, or something close to it, was widely rumored in November and December.

Aaron Heilman will probably end up in the Mets' starting rotation, while Benson becomes the Baltimore ace. Julio will try to land the setup role in spring training. Benson will have the chance to work with pitching coach Leo Mazzone, who seems to get more out of pitchers than any other coach in MLB. That's what the Orioles are hoping for, since Benson makes $7.5 million and has never won more than 12 games. Benson may need to focus more on pitching to his potential - in the following link, he actually said that the Mets could have at least traded him for Manny! - if this deal is going to be a success, instead of worrying about being betrayed.

In another AL East trade, the Boston Herald and ESPN.com are reporting that the Red Sox will send 3B Andy Marte - recently acquired for Edgar Renteria - and RP Guillermo Mota - he of the Josh Beckett trade - to the Cleveland Indians for outfielder Coco Crisp. This deal will probably become official in the next few days, but it has been in the works for quite some time. Crisp is a steady defender, is just 26 years old, and isn't a free agent until 2009. The deal will also likely involve the Phillies sending an outfielder (Jason Michaels?) to Cleveland in exchange for prospects.

Also reported in the above links, the Red Sox will sign free-agent SS Alex Gonzalez, previously of the Marlins. Gonzalez and former Florida teammate Mike Lowell, along with Mark Loretta, should make Boston's infield defense much better. Buster Olney looks at the Red Sox' new lineup and isn't sold on its offensive prowess. Both Crisp and Gonzalez could see their numbers rise above their career averages with the core of the Red Sox lineup (Ortiz-Ramirez-Varitek-Nixon) unchanged from the past three years of offensive dominance. Boston's five new everyday players (six if J.T. Snow is included) will be expected to produce for a pitching staff that is hinging on a lot of hope.

Quick Hits

-Carlos Frias has a haunting story about Jeff Reardon.

-The new Reds owner is taking an active role in his team's immediate future.

Epstein Returns to Red Sox

2006-01-20T11:33:00.000-05:00

After months of speculation, former Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein is returning to the club in an undefined role in the baseball operations department. Judging from the morning wire, Epstein will have the final say in all decisions baseball, although he may not have the title of General Manager (currently held by Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherington). Principal owner John Henry has indicated that more details of Epstein's employment will be provided next week.

Theo Epstein of the Boston Red Sox

Now, the team that has made the most (strangest?) headlines this offseason is back to where it was on October 31st, when Epstein left Fenway Park in a gorilla suit. The Red Sox brass says that Epstein's departure has brought all of them closer together as an organization and has opened up the lines of communication. We'll see. Buster Olney thinks that Epstein's return is a coup for the young executive.

-Quick Hits

-This isn't a Red Sox blog, but the past two days have been dominated by Boston headlines. Sorry folks.

-The Cincinnati Reds have finally been sold.

-Jack Curry of the New York Times has a bizarre story on Alex Rodriguez and his decision to play in the WBC. I can't remember an athlete who cared as much about his public perception as does Rodriguez. Truly bizarre.

-Cuba will be allowed to field a team for the WBC. That's a good thing, if only because it will shut up all the self-righteous columnists have been yapping about this. They really have no idea what they're talking about.

A Matter of Trust

2006-01-19T17:42:00.000-05:00

Today was a pretty slow news day for baseball, and was a pretty busy day for me at work, so I apologize for the late (and short) post. The Boston Globe reports today that Red Sox pitcher Bronson Arroyo will sign a 3-year deal worth up to $12.5 million. If you think $4.166 million average annual salary is low for a guy who led his team in quality starts last year, you would be right in your assumption. Oddly enough, Arroyo's new deal will pay him more than newly arrived starter Josh Beckett. Beckett will certainly get a long-term deal from Boston (at some point) which will render that point moot.

Boston Red Sox pitcher Bronson Arroyo

There are several issues at work here, and I wanted to take this opportunity to encourage all the readers to comment/email on this topic, to try to start a debate within this forum. Arroyo's deal is somewhat of a "hometown discount." In light of the recent deals signed by free-agent starters and relievers, the deal is quite generous on Arroyo's part. Add in the fact that this deal kills Arroyo's chances of arbitration over the next few years, and you've got quite the topic for discussion.

Carrying over a bit from yesterday's article on Curt Flood, I'd like to ask the readers what they think about this issue: is there any such thing as loyalty in MLB? Arroyo claims he wants to be a Red Sox for life, and this contract is his olive branch. Is he stupid to think the Red Sox care about him? Will the Red Sox use his new, below-market contract to entice other teams to trade for Arroyo (perhaps in exchange for a CF or SS)? I look forward to hearing what everyone has to say, and thanks for coming back often.

Honoring A Legend

2006-01-18T15:36:00.000-05:00

Baseball Universe is pleased to honor one of the most significant icons in baseball history: Curt Flood. Today would have been Flood's 68th birthday, had he not died of throat cancer in 1997. Many of you have certainly heard of Curt Flood, but you probably don't know exactly why he is important. "Oh, he was the free agency guy, right?" Well, yes and no.

Former Cardinals and Reds OF Curt Flood

Essentially, Curt Flood is responsible for the free agent era, even if he never acquired that status himself. From 1958 to 1969, Flood played centerfield for the Cardinals and won two World Series (as well as seven consecutive Gold Gloves). But in 1970, Flood was traded from St. Louis to Philadelphia. Flood refused to report to his new team; he believed Philadelphia was a racist city, had a poor playing facility in Connie Mack Stadium, and worst of all, had a terrible baseball team. From a more philosophical standpoint, Flood refused to be treated like a piece of property. Flood petitioned then-commissioner Bowie Kuhn for a revocation of the reserve clause and subsequent free agent status. When Kuhn refused, Flood filed a lawsuit against Kuhn and began a famous quest to destroy the reserve clause.

Flood's case wound up going all the way to the Supreme Court, where ultimately, the justices sided with Kuhn and MLB based on stare decisis ("to stand by things decided"). Although he did not gain free agency for himself, Flood did open the gates for an entire generation of players. In 1975, the Messersmith-McNally ruling destroyed the reserve clause and ushered in the current era of salary escalation and free agency. Instead of having their rights retained by the ballclub - under the reserve clause, even after the contract expired, the player had to either sign a new one-year deal or ask to be released - the players were now free to choose their own employer.

Sometimes we lose sight of the monumental contribution Flood made to the game by sacrificing himself. But the next time you read an article about a free agent not wanting to play in your city because your stadium is old, or your team is no good, think of Curt Flood. He'll never make the Hall of Fame, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't honor his memory. Happy Birthday, Curt Flood. We are surely in your debt.

WBC Rosters Announced

2006-01-17T15:11:00.000-05:00

While only preliminary lists, the rosters for the WBC were announced yesterday and today. Follow the link to mlb.com to find everything you need to know to stay informed on the upcoming tournament. Just a quick observation from looking at the rosters, it's clear that the U.S., Puerto Rico, Venezuela, and Dominican Republic squads are head and shoulders above the competition. Further, the U.S. squad is headlined by several legends, and perhaps the WBC is a chance to appreciate what these players have contributed to the game and our collective baseball consciousness.

SF Giants slugger Barry Bonds

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Derek Jeter are all going into the Hall of Fame. They've dominated the game for two or even three decades. Bonds has won 7 MVPs, 8 Gold Gloves, 2 Batting Titles, and 12 Silver Sluggers; Clemens 7 Cy Youngs, 1 MVP, 7 ERA titles, and 1 World Series; Griffey 10 Gold Gloves, 7 Silver Sluggers, 4 Home Run Titles, and 1 MVP; Jeter 2 Gold Gloves, 1 ROY, 1 WS MVP, and 4 World Series. It's interesting to note that while Jeter doesn't have the abundance of hardware that the other guys have, he has won more World Series titles than all of them combined. Additionally, the Yankees would not have won all four titles without Captain Jeter. So his relative youth is certainly mitigated by his team's success.

Free-agent pitcher Roger Clemens

Reds CF Ken Griffey, Jr.

Jeter's impact on the game is not to be denied; but he has many more productive years ahead of him. Bonds, Clemens, and Griffey define an era of baseball that I grew up with, the mid-80s through early-90s transition that catapulted MLB into a multi-billion dollar industry. These three stars established themselves before the 1994 strike and ushered in a new era of baseball for a generation of fans. I will always associate these three players with that time period, from Sid Bream's famous slide to Griffey's 1,000 watt smile, from years and years of Atlanta Braves postseason failure to the tragic turns of Griffey's career, from Greg Maddux to Curt Schilling, from Joe Carter to Jack Morris. Bonds, Griffey, and Clemens not only defined their era, but were so dominant that they have yet to truly pass the torch. The WBC could be (should be) the moment when we close the book on one of the most productive and most controversial chapters in baseball history, the "Steroid Era."

Yankees SS Derek Jeter

For now, the WBC will look more like a fantasy baseball competition or an All-Star game than a true international tournament that bestows a legitimate championship. But a decade or so down the road, it is possible that the WBC could take place shortly after the World Series, and would hold much more water in the eyes of serious baseball fans. While the World Series in and of itself is not really a world tournament like the World Cup, the best players in the world do flock to MLB rosters to prove themselves. The World Series will never be removed from its pedestal as the defining moment for a champion, nor should it be. But a successful WBC will be positive for MLB and all nations involved, and will hopefully further spread the influence of America's game across the globe.

Happy Monday!

2006-01-16T15:24:00.000-05:00

In honor of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, Major League Baseball will be ... announcing the preliminary roster for the WBC. The roster will include 60 players, to be pared down to 30 by the managerial expertise of Buck Martinez. Yeesh. The thing is two months away and already I'm bored.

The World Baseball Classic begins March 3 in Tokyo.

In a slightly more interesting story, the Devil Rays have finally traded closer Danys Baez to the Brooklyn Dod....I mean, L.A. Dodgers. The Rays also sent 2003 AL All-Star reliever Lance Carter to the Dodgers in exchange for Edwin Jackson and minor league pitcher Chuck Tiffany. Baez will provide Gagne insurance, while Jackson gives the Rays a "live arm" to develop. Baez and Carter strengthen L.A.'s bullpen while making the Dodgers the early favorite to win the West.

The Dodgers have "given up" on developing Jackson (who is a rickety 22 years of age). It should comfort Dodgers fans to know that other prospects the Dodgers have lost patience with have not been successful in MLB. Unless you consider Pedro Martinez and Paul Konerko to be successes. The Kool-Aid at Chavez must be either really, really weak, or really, really spiked.

Just a quick post today, but tomorrow we'll break down the WBC roster. Happy (observed) Birthday, Dr. King!

Beyond the Game

2006-01-13T13:25:00.000-05:00

This week has served as a reminder that inside those uniforms are real, honest to goodness human beings. We may not want to believe that sometimes, especially when those humans earn as much in one year as we will in our lifetimes, but it's a truth we often choose to ignore. On New Year's Day, former Oakland A's reliever Paul Lindblad passed away after battling Alzheimer's disease for over 12 years. He was just 64 years old. Lindblad was teammates with Hall of Fame pitcher Catfish Hunter, who died in 1999 from ALS (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, a motor neuron disease also known as "Lou Gehrig's Disease").

Houston Astros 1B Jeff Bagwell

Houston Astros All-Star first baseman Jeff Bagwell, the National League MVP in 1994, has come to the crossroads of his career. Once one of the most feared hitters in the game, Bagwell has struggled over the past few years with various injuries to his right shoulder. In today's blog, Buster Olney reports that the Astros are not-so-privately hoping that the franchise's all-time leader in home runs, RBIs, and walks simply walks away from the game. Bagwell is owed $17 million in 2006, but the Astros can recover $15.6 million (roughly 92% of the value) in insurance claims if Bagwell decides to retire.

For anyone who knows anything about Jeff Bagwell's personality and dedication to the game, to ask him to walk away when he still believes he can play must be devastating. Here is a player who has had eight seasons of over 100 RBIs, and 12 seasons in which he played at least 140 games. For Houston baseball, Jeff Bagwell is the ultimate warrior. Unfortunately, baseball is an unforgiving mistress at times, and in 2006, the Astros don't seem to have any room for Jeff Bagwell. His spot at first base is taken by Lance Berkman, who has been replaced in the outfield by the newly acquired Preston Wilson.

In addition, Bagwell's $17 million salary is an albatross around the neck of the franchise. With the uncertainty over the return of Roger Clemens, who made $18 million in 2005, the Astros are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Do they dedicate $35 million, or roughly 33% of their payroll, to two future Hall of Famers? Or do they cut ties with their heroes and perform with a more realistic payroll for their television market size? Whatever happens, you have to feel badly for Jeff Bagwell and the entire Astros family.

With that in mind, and keeping in tone with the above references to Paul Lindblad and Catfish Hunter, Baseball Universe has added a new link today in the links section. If you have time, please visit The ALS Association to learn more about ALS and how you can help in your community. Baseball Universe is in no way affiliated with ALS and has not received any compensation, monetary or otherwise, for this promotion of the organization. The Iron Horse thanks you in advance.

Los Angeles Angels Angle to Keep Anaheim Out

2006-01-12T15:43:00.000-05:00

On Friday, opening statements will begin in the civil trial between the City of Anaheim and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The City of Anaheim is suing the franchise for breach of contract, in reference to the Angels changing their name from "Anaheim Angels" to "Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim" at the start of the 2005 season. Owner Arte Moreno was shrewd enough to get $20 million in stadium improvements from the City of Anaheim before he jumped ship for the marketing appeal of "Los Angeles."

Outside Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA.

The Angels have a long and bizarre history of changing their name. So instead of boring you with a lot of legal mumbo-jumbo, let's try to poke some fun at one of the more ridiculous stories to come out of baseball in 2005, and now, 2006. Try to stay with me here. In 1961, the Angels began play as the "Los Angeles Angels." This name was discarded after the 1964 season and gave way to the long-standing moniker "California Angels."

The team played under the "California Angels" banner from 1965 to 1996 and made three playoff appearances, winning the AL West in 1979, 1982, and 1986. The team was led by Jim Fregosi in 1979, and by the late Gene Mauch in 1982 and 1986, including the epic collapse against Boston in the 1986 ALCS. The California Angels of 1995 participated in one of baseball's most thrilling moments, the one-game playoff. After collapsing down the stretch, the Angels fell to the late-inning heroics of a young, wild Randy Johnson and his Seattle Mariners teammates.

After the 1996 season, much to the dismay of many baseball fans, the Angels once again changed their name (and uniform) to "Anaheim Angels." Without a doubt, this name change was the most successful in Angels history. From 1997 to 2004, the Anaheim Angels made two playoff appearances (33% of the franchise's total appearances), and won the World Series in 2002 after gutting it out with the San Francisco Giants. Had enough yet?

In 2005, the Anaheim Angels gave way to the worst team name in professional sports: "The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim." The LA/Anaheim Angels won the AL West, but were tossed aside in five games by the eventual World Champion Chicago White Sox. In 2006, the Angels should contend for the AL West crown, with a crop of young position players mixed with a core of playoff-tested veterans. The Oakland A's and Texas Rangers will both try to compete in what is often baseball's tightest division.

If the City happens to win its case, the Angels could become the "Anaheim Angels" once again. Equally possible is a name change to the old "Los Angeles Angels." Maybe the Phillies should change their name to "The Philadelphia Phillies of South Philadelphia," or perhaps the Mets could change their name to "The New York Mets of Queens." Whatever outcome occurs, the Angels will have clinched the award for wackiest off-season story. That is, until the World Baseball Classic, where American citizens will be suiting up to play baseball for foreign nations.

Duck, Duck, Duck, Duck, ... Goose?

2006-01-11T11:56:00.000-05:00

Congratulations to Bruce Sutter, who yesterday was announced as the only member of the 2006 National Baseball Hall of Fame induction class. As a career reliever with the Cubs, Cardinals, and Braves, Sutter played from 1976 to 1988, racking up 300 career saves, and winning the National League Cy Young Award winner in 1979. He was an All-Star six times, from 1977 to 1981 and again in 1984, and had a career ERA of 2.83. His career WHIP was 1.140.

According to The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers: An Historical Compendium of Pitching, Pitchers, and Pitches, by Bill James and Rob Neyer (Fireside: New York, 2004, p. 398), Sutter threw a split-fingered fastball as his primary pitch, also using a fastball and an occasional slider. Sutter is credited with popularizing the "splitter" in the late 70s and early 80s. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com gives Sutter credit for the ubiquity of the splitter in today's MLB: "Maybe he didn't quite invent the split-fingered fastball. But there's no doubt he's the No. 1 reason that pitch now turns up on almost as many mounds as the resin bag."

There are a lot of issues involved with this election. First of all, as the Jayson Stark article will tell you, closers haven't really gotten much consideration from the Hall of Fame. This is in part due to the lack of a discernible method for establishing a closer's dominance; in addition, closers get less attention because the closer has only become an integral part of the game in the last few decades. Second of all, in reference to any Hall of Fame candidate, writers always talk in cliches about a player's "dominance" or "fear factor" relative to his opponents in order to determine the player's "Hall-worthiness."

Sutter finished in the top 10 in MVP voting five times. He finished in the top 10 in saves nine times (and in the top 5 eight times, including five years when he led the league). He won the World Series in 1982. The Neyer/James guide tells us that in a 1987 poll of 645 players in Player's Choice, by Eugene and Roger McCaffrey, Sutter's split-fingered fastball is listed as the greatest ever. So even though his career wasn't as long as some writers wanted it to be, Sutter finally got the recognition he deserved.

But what about his contemporary, Rich "Goose" Gossage, who got 64 fewer votes than Sutter and fell 54 votes shy of being elected? Goose had a career ERA of 3.01, just .18 higher than Sutter, and a career WHIP of 1.232, just 0.092 higher than Sutter. This, despite the fact that Sutter pitched for 12 years and Gossage pitched for 22 years. Goose had 310 career saves, just 10 more than Sutter, but Goose wasn't exclusively a closer for his whole career. From 1975 to 1978 with the White Sox, Pirates, and Yankees, Goose threw an average of 158 innings as a starter. He was a World Series winner in 1978.

Goose never won a Cy Young award, but was an All-Star nine times (1975-1978, 1980-1982, 1984-1985) and finished in the top 15 in MVP voting four times. He was in the top 10 in saves eleven times (with eight of those years in the top 5, including three years when he led the league). He threw a rising fastball, a sinking fastball, and a slider, with an occasional change. Gossage also redefined himself several times throughout his career. His pitch selection, according to Neyer and James on page 220, changed in the early 1980s, again in the late 1980s, and for the last time in the early 1990s. According to Neyer and James, The Complete Handbook of Baseball: 1982 Season, edited by Zander Hollander, says of Gossage, "...hitters quake at facing his fastball, which is clocked regularly at 96 MPH."

Gossage appears to pass several HOF tests: he had a long, effective career; he was a multiple All-Star; and his peers clearly considered him to be a dominant force in the game. He, like Sutter, compiled 30-save seasons when that actually meant something. Therefore I have to wonder why Sutter made the Hall this year but Gossage did not. Of course, Sutter's numbers make him appear more dominant due to his shorter playing career. But tell that to any hitter who played in MLB from 1972 to 1994 and had to face the famous fu manchu of the Goose.

Baseball Universe is in no way associated with the BBWAA or the National Baseball Hall of Fame; but Goose Gossage has our full support for the Hall in 2007. Once again, congratulations to Bruce Sutter. He made the Hall and he deserved to make it. This commentary is in no way intended to minimize Sutter's candidacy; in fact, Sutter's election should guarantee the Goose a spot in Cooperstown in the (hopefully) very near future.

Marlins' Northwest Passage Blocked

2006-01-10T12:57:00.000-05:00

The Florida Marlins' quest for a baseball-only stadium has taken team executives to some strange places: Miami (where there is no downtown and no "right" spot for a stadium), San Antonio (which would complete the "Texas Triangle" for MLB with current teams in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and Houston), and now, Portland, Oregon. According to the Associated Press, Marlins officials were in Portland on Monday to discuss preliminary options for a stadium financing deal in the Rose City.

Unfortunately for Mr. Loria and his employees, the people of Portland don't seem to be chomping at the bit for the arrival of fresh Phish. The AP reports, "most Portlanders don't care about landing a major league baseball team" and also indicates that Portland Mayor Tom Potter has "reiterated his position that the city will not help finance a ballpark for the Florida Marlins."

If the Marlins can't get taxpayer dollars to pay for a new stadium in Miami, they will leave for a city that will accommodate their request. However, with Portland rumored as one of the more likely destinations for the two-time World Champion Marlins, Monday's meeting cannot have been encouraging. Rumors of a baseball team in Las Vegas have been flying around the baseball world for years; but until the oddsmakers agree to take MLB off the sports books (contain your laughter), Commissioner Selig will not allow a franchise to operate in the Sin City.

The Marlins' stadium lease expires at the end of the 2007 season, with three (3) one-year options that could extend the deal until 2010. Of course, nobody believes the Marlins will exercise those options; but if owner Jeffrey Loria cannot find the funding he desires in Portland or Miami, to where will he go? This story deserves some attention over the next several months and years as baseball tries to sweep the Marlins' mess under the rug. If the stadium negotiations and the ownership quandary for the Nationals is any indicator, the Marlins will have an exceedingly difficult time getting taxpayers to agree to fund a baseball-only stadium that will certainly cost upwards of $400 million to build.

Song For The Dumped

2006-01-09T17:21:00.000-05:00

In unceremonious fashion, the Corey Patterson Era is officially over in Chicago's North Side. After being drafted third overall by the Cubs in 1998, Patterson has been traded to the Baltimore Orioles for a pair of farmhands, SS Nate Spears and LHP Carlos Perez. After appearing in a McDonald's ad campaign in 2003 as the new face of the Cubs, Patterson ripped off 13 homers before suffering a season-ending (and career-changing) knee ligament tear.

Always a free swinger, Patterson never put his "five-tool" potential to use. Instead of trying to get on base, slapping the ball where it was pitched, or drawing walks, Patterson consistently tried to hit home runs with a vicious uppercut swing. His strikeout to walk ratio tells a tale of maddening inconsistency:

Corey Patterson, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Year	AB	BB	K	BB:K Ratio	AB per BB
2002	592	19	142	0.134	31.2
2003	329	15	77	0.195	21.9
2004	631	45	168	0.268	14
2005	451	23	118	0.195	19.6
Career	2176	111	552	0.201	19.6

Although his numbers appeared to be improving in 2003 and 2004, Patterson clearly regressed in 2005. He has an awful BB:K ratio for his career of 0.201, and his career ratio of 19.6 AB per BB is also dismal. For comparison, OBP machine Bobby Abreu has a career BB:K ratio of 0.843 and a career AB per BB ratio of 5.38.

The numbers don't lie here. Patterson is allergic to getting on base. The Orioles are taking a chance on Patterson, who is still just 26 years old. But they could get burned easily on this one, as they were with the Sammy Sosa Experiment. Baltimore fans should be upset with their ownership not with this particular deal, but with the symptoms that led to the deal. Free agents, plain and simple, do not want to play in Baltimore. The Orioles couldn't even hold onto Jeromy Burnitz. Miguel Tejada taking the big bucks from owner Peter Angelos is one thing; but attracting low- and mid-level free agents to add depth to the team is something the Orioles have been unable to do for a decade.

If the Orioles are going to contend in the near future, they must realize that stopgaps and patches aren't the answer. On an even broader level, owner Peter Angelos must stop meddling in the everyday affairs of his team and let his people run the show. The Orioles have not made the playoffs since 1997, and will miss them again in 2006. Sorry, O's fans, maybe in 2007.

Triangle Offense

2006-01-04T23:03:00.000-05:00

Three players and three teams are caught in a bizarre love triangle. The Baltimore Orioles were this close to signing free agent outfielder Jeromy Burnitz to a $12 million, two-year deal. But instead of filling a void in left field, the Orioles learned that Burnitz and his agent had decided to sign with Pittsburgh. Though there are many potential explanations for why Burnitz had a change of heart, Peter Gammons is usually right, and he said that most people in baseball believe Burnitz failed a physical.

The loss of Burnitz is keeping the Manny Ramirez for Miguel Tejada trade fires burning. For about a month there has been a buzz throughout the baseball industry about a Tejada trade, and the most prominent (and most recent) rumor involves the Orioles sending Tejada to Boston for Manny Ramirez, Matt Clement, and cash. In an ESPN.com insider article this week, Peter Gammons tells us Baltimore would be silly to turn down the offer. But for a window into the negotiations, read what Orioles VP Mike Flanagan had to say to the Baltimore Sun about the trade rumors: "The parameters from the very beginning is that we have to feel that we are getting fair value in return."

Fair value. Is getting one of the best right-handed hitters in the game and a solid number three starter in exchange for the best shortstop fair value? That depends on perspective:
"The lunatic, the lover and the poet
Are of imagination all compact:
One sees more devils than vast hell can hold."
This trade may well turn out to be a Boston fan's midsummer night's dream; but if the personal issues Tejada and Ramirez have with their respective organizations are as serious as we're led to believe, then both teams should look at this trade as the only solution.

Ramirez and Tejada will both produce bigger numbers if they are traded; with Camden Yards more favorable to Ramirez's power stroke, and with Tejada's doubles power a natural fit for the gaps at Fenway. Ramirez has indicated a willingness to go to Baltimore, and Tejada is practically pushing the doors down to be with his pal David Ortiz. So a lot of the pieces seem to be in place.

Except the money. It's still a pretty big pill to swallow to believe Peter Angelos would take on Ramirez's bloated contract, which includes decades worth of deferred payments. But you never know with lunatics and lovers.

Bleeding Dodger Blue Once More

2005-12-27T11:18:00.000-05:00

-by Josh Dembowitz

Last season was a tumultuous one for the L.A. Dodgers, punctuated by injuries to many key players. The club struggled after a 12-2 start, finishing the season well below .500. However, as John Kerry said in his 2004 campaign: "Hope is on the way," thanks to some brilliant off-season moves by new G.M. Ned Colletti.

The off-season began with a somewhat surprising move- the firing of G.M. Paul DePodesta, a Billy Beane prodigy whose questionable moves seemed to always turn out poorly. These included the deadline trade of Paul LoDuca and Guillermo Mota for Brad Penny and Hee Seop Choi, the signing of J.D. Drew last offseason to a monster deal despite only one healthy year (conveniently, his walk year), and the trade of Shawn Green. Manager Jim Tracy was fired as well- despite a few solid seasons, management had never been a big fan, and the team was a massive disappointment last year.

One of Colletti's best moves was his decision to give Grady Little another shot at managing a big league club. This comes two years after Little's ill-fated decision to leave Pedro Martinez on the mound in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, enabling the Yankees to come back and tie the game, winning it in the 12th on Aaron (I'm Really a Balla) Boone's homer off Tim Wakefield. Little was fried and fired, despite a .580 winning percentage in his two years in Boston. Nobody gave him another opportunity to manage, but, as time will show, one team’s loss will be L.A.'s gain.

The Dodgers went into the offseason with many holes to fill. The infield was a shambles, lacking legitimate options at every position but second base. Colletti has upgraded it exponentially, turning it into one of the top all-around infields in baseball. Just last week, he signed one of the most sought-after free agents of this off-season in Nomar Garciaparra. Plagued by injuries the past few seasons, the versatile slugger appears to be healthy and on a mission to revert to previous form. He hit fairly well after returning from a severe groin injury. Nomar will be the starter at first, but can also play shortstop, third, and the outfield if necessary, allowing Little more flexibility with his lineup. Colletti has two solid backups for Nomar, allowing Little to frequently spell the oft-injured former golden boy- Hee Seop Choi (15-42-.336 OBP in 2005), and Olmedo Saenz, who is coming off of a tremendous year (15 HR, 63 RBI in just 319 ABs).

Second base was the one bright spot last season, and that shouldn't change in '06. Jeff Kent, signed before last season, hit 29 homers and drove in 105 runs despite having no protection in the lineup. He also posted a stellar .377 OBP. At SS, Cesar Izturis offered decent speed and a glove, but little pop and a poor OBP (just .302). Rafael Furcal, another ballyhooed acquisition, can run, steal bags, offers a decent glove and a rocket arm, gets on base (.348 OBP despite a rough start) and even displays some pop (12 HR, 58 RBI). He will offer the full package at the leadoff position for the Dodgers.

Grady Little will have another one of his former players with him this season- Bill Mueller. Bill Mill offers a solid bat (10-62-.369 OBP), and a stupendous glove. He is a steady contact hitter and will also help the squad in the clubhouse. His style is well-suited for spacious Dodger Stadium, so look for the 2003 AL Batting Champion to post another strong campaign.

Backing up the infielders will be the aforementioned Choi and Saenz (who also plays 3B), Wily Aybar, Oscar Robles, a versatile utilityman, and Izturis, who hopes to return after the All-Star break from elbow surgery necessitated by a degenerative arthritic condition in his elbow.

The outfield was horrendous last season, especially after J.D. Drew went down (as he always does). Colletti has upgraded the outfield somewhat, although more help would be appreciated by Little. His biggest move may have been an export- the trade of mercurial Milton Bradley should be a boon for the club, especially in the clubhouse. Little's starting three outfielders will be Jose Cruz Jr., Kenny Lofton, and J.D. Drew. While they will not strike fear into the hearts of anybody, they are, at the very least, an upgrade over last season's mix of Bradley, Jason Repko, Mike Edwards, and company. Cruz Jr. had a decent season, hitting 18 homers and driving in 50 runs in 370 ABs. Drew slugged 15 homers in just 252 ABs, and had a stellar .932 OPS- if he can stay healthy, he will make a huge difference in the lineup. Lofton is coming off something of a career rebirth, having hit .335 with a .392 OBP and 22 SBs for Philly last season. However, he had his highest AB total in 5 years (367 ABs), and cannot handle a full-time role at the age of 39. Fortunately, the team has some help on the bench.

Jayson Werth, an oft-injured slugger with loads of potential, had a disappointing, injury-plagued '05 campaign. The club can only hope he can platoon with Lofton in much the same way Jason Michaels did, and put up numbers more in line with 2004-- 16 and 47 in just 290 ABs. The club also has a solid backup in Ricky Ledee, and Repko could be a surprise after being thrown into the fire in his rookie year. While the team may not be able to withstand a serious injury to one of its starters, it has enough depth and talent to produce to some degree.

Catcher is a question mark for the squad, but the future is bright. Dioner Navarro, acquired in the Shawn Green deal, is a highly-regarded line-drive switch-hitter with a decent glove who is expected to be the starter. However, it may not last for long- Russell Martin, rated as L.A.'s No. 4 prospect by Baseball America and expected to start off the year in Triple-A, could be up at any time. Martin is a comparable player to Paul LoDuca, albeit with a far better glove. Colletti made a very underrated, seemingly unimportant move here as well by bringing in Sandy Alomar Jr. as a backup catcher. While he won't contribute much on the field, his mentoring of the two young signal-callers should prove invaluable as Navarro and Martin mature.

Overall, here is the projected lineup for 2006:

1. Furcal
2. Lofton
3. Drew
4. Kent
5. Garciaparra
6. Cruz Jr.
7. Mueller
8. Navarro

The lineup may not scare anybody, but it is sure a vast improvement over last season's. The pitching is not too shabby either, although a big move by Colletti could pay huge dividends.

Currently, the staff "ace" is Odalis Perez. The 28-year old lefty is talented, but he will never be what everyone thought he would become. He's far more of a number 3 guy than an ace. Ditto for Derek Lowe, who was handsomely rewarded after his dominant 2004 postseason but failed to deliver wins last season, although his 3.61 ERA was not too shabby. He rebounded quite nicely in his final 10 starts, with a 2.74 ERA. If he can duplicate his overall performance, he should get more wins. Brad Penny is another intriguing option- he had a decent 2005, going 7-9 with a 3.90 ERA. The 27-year-old has electric stuff- now, it's time to show it off. Recently signed Brett Tomko is interesting- he has shown flashes of brilliance but far more inconsistency. These four guys appear to have secured roles- the final starter's role remains uncertain.

Jeff Weaver is currently a free agent but has been offered arbitration by L.A., who seems to want to re-sign him. They'd do well to do so- he finally appears to be putting it all together, with two straight full, 13+ win, 150+ K seasons. He will never be an ace, but he is a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. D.J. Houlton is another option- the 2004 Rule 5 pick had to stay in the majors all season for L.A. to keep him, and his inexperience showed in his final numbers, but he had flashes of tremendous potential. He would probably be better suited to a long relief role. Finally, there is the most appealing option of all- electric 22-year old Edwin Jackson. Formerly an OF, the righty has been expected to contend for a rotation spot the past couple of seasons, only to fall short. He has shown his stuff in spot starts, but this might finally be the year the highly-regarded youngster sticks in the bigs for good. The sky is the limit. Another option for the middle to late season is Greg Miller. The lefty is considered as good if not better than Jackson. He missed 2005 due to injury, but appears to be healthy once more. Miller and Jackson may not make impacts this season, but look out in 2007 and beyond.

The bullpen has tons of power arms. Eric Gagne, one of the most dominant closers to ever play the game, is expected to be back in time for spring training after missing much of 2005 due to injury. In his absence, Yhency Brazoban and Duaner Sanchez, two young guns, got the opportunity to close, with varying degrees of success. Both should be very good set-up men and fallback options in case Gagne experiences any setbacks. The rest of the spots are pretty much up for grabs.

The Dodgers may never regain the glory days of Robinson and Reese, of Koufax and Drysdale. But, they are, at the very least, a club on the rise that bears watching this season and beyond. Recently, the team and its fans have been seeing and bleeding red. Not for long- bleeding Dodger blue is making a comeback.